AWUS01 KWNH 051612
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-051730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051300Z - 051730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast OK are
expected to persist through mid-morning. Given high rainfall rates
of up to 2 inches/hour and the slow cell-motions, some areas of
mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
rather compact, but slow-moving cold-topped MCS over southeast OK.
Some cloud-top cooling has been noted over the last couple of
hours which suggests some deepening/strengthening of the
convective updrafts and this has been corresponding to an uptick
in rainfall rates.

In fact, the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates near 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms over portions of Pittsburg
and Latimer Counties, and there have been some clear signs of
back-building cell activity around the southwest flank of the
convective mass. The early-morning satellite imagery is showing
some increasingly agitated CU/TCU across southern OK to the
southwest of the convection, and this is correlated with a
convergent low-level jet of around 40 kts in close proximity to a
stationary front.

The thermodynamic is generally modest with PWs of around 1.3 to
1.4 inches and MUCAPE values of only 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, a
wave of low pressure is noted in surface observations along this
front near the area of most organized convection. Given the
focused area of moisture convergence around this low center and
the low-level jet aiming into the southwest flank of the MCS,
there appears to be an environment to at least sustain the
convection in the near-term.

Morning CAMs are not doing the greatest with this MCS, but the
latest RRFS guidance is generally the best with overall placement.
However, it does suggest some convective persistence through at
least the mid-morning hours. Given the convective trends, an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain may be possible locally across
areas of southeast OK, and especially with a favorable environment
for back-building and training convective cells. The RRFS and some
06Z HREF guidance suggest some parts of far western AR may
eventually see some of this activity as well.

Expect a concern for mainly urban flash flooding as a result over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R6iCeI4LmUCaA5NzmFE9j-z2RPshOwLEWmKlicx_OB1_aZJ1YiUdTOF3ArjrFdHW0hV= Ywwb_p2vB3ikXFsa4onSyOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35279546 35269464 34999407 34489415 34329513=20
34419639 34779679 35139644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest TX & western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052342Z - 060542Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous
with time from Northwest TX across portions of western OK. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer trough lies across the West, with a
subtle preceding shortwave just ahead of the main feature across
portions of West TX, southeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. The
combination of these incoming features is attempting to break a
weak mid-level cap across the region, which has led to isolated
shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25", ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is
35-45 kts.

With time, the cap breaks which should lead to increased shower
and thunderstorm development near and poleward of where an area of
850 hPa confluence intersects a warm front, with the zone of
low-level confluence slowly veering with time. The 12z ARW and
18z hi-res NAM are amongst the wettest guidance, showing a 3-4"
maximum somewhere near the border of northwest TX and southwest
OK. Given the ingredients above, hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, lending some credence to their
solutions. Cell training, cell mergers between more and less
organized convective activity, and mesocyclone formation are
expected to be the drivers for heavy rainfall. These amounts
would exceed flash flood guidance on an isolated to widely
scattered basis, and be more problematic in urban areas within the
region. Used the 12z REFS & 18z HREF heavy rain signal to help
define the MPD outline.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67chU8hr6wglojF9XFQcZQZ5f9RgUFP6UaatT-G40IV2BLK7d0_fXfjDMO7OIFxTB6fM= CRPmLUTn0hyH2IY20_YBaEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37019878 36389723 34339850 33749996 34510128=20
35760070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060916
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-061500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...IA into northern IL and far southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060911Z - 061500Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered coverage of mainly minor
flash flooding will be possible across central/eastern portions of
IA into northern IL and the IL/WI border through 15Z (9 AM CST).
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely where training of
heavy rain occurs with isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0845Z showed elevated
thunderstorms over central and southern IA, with a general motion
toward the northeast. The storms were located at the nose of a
50-60 kt 850 mb jet seen on area VAD wind plots over central to
eastern KS, located north of a wavy warm front which extended from
southeastern NE into north-central MO and south-central IL. The
low level jet was rapidly transporting low level moisture into the
region, along with MUCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg toward the
northeast. Brief training of cells has supported observed rainfall
of 0.75 to 1.25 inches in 30 minutes near the central MO/IA border
between 07-08Z, showing the potential for locally high rainfall
totals if cell training is able to maintain over a location for 30
to 60 minutes. A strengthening 90-100 kt upper level jet streak
was also observed on GOES East DMVs centered over southern MN,
placing IA within the favorable right-entrance region.

While the magnitude of the low level jet is likely near peak and
RAP forecasts show some weakening through 12Z across eastern KS,
continued warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to
advance downstream into portions of southern WI and northern IL
over the next 3-6 hours as low level moisture continues to advect
downstream and upper level support increases. Low level
convergence axes at the nose of the low level jet are not
favorably aligned to support longer duration training of cells
with the mean steering flow from SW to NE (roughly at right angles
to larger convergence axes), but increasing cell coverage could
allow for some brief training from SW to NE or WSW to ENE this
morning. The potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and 2
to 3 inches in 2 to 3 hours would surpass area-wide flash flood
guidance values which are relatively low.

Therefore, a couple of instances of lower-end/minor flash flooding
will be possible over the next few hours with impacts mostly
likely where overlap of heavy rain occurs with urban locations or
other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8D9mYBbu0Iq8zqihAoDjR-bFNkrufn_JFv79UQULt56TOnftIXCqBoWPO1IsavPTsjBc= DUeLvMO8mcRND-sJY_TvDLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43049341 42899151 42709019 42548867 41818832=20
41308877 40739090 40779355 41449517 42199543=20
42869482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX into eastern OK, western AR, &
central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062210Z - 070410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are broadening in coverage
across southeast OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southeast OK and southwest MO as mid-level capping erodes.=20
The OK activity in particular is near the intersection of a
surface trough and an effective warm front. ML CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear is 40-55 kts, and precipitable water
values are ~1.4". Water vapor imagery implies a weak disturbance
is over the convection at the present time, with other shortwaves
aloft approaching from the west and southwest. Thunderstorms are
occurring on both sides of a cool wedge of air across central to
northeast OK left behind by morning stratus/rainfall. The
mesoscale guidance is struggling with the breadth of the coverage
and the location, with the 12z REFS a few hours too delayed and
the 18z HREF 1-2 hours delayed in this area.

The GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies a convective uptick in
coverage and intensity most centered in northeast TX, eastern OK,
and northwest AR through 00z before activity wanes at 03z or so,
which also matches the timing of the HREF/REFS convective
evolution. Considering the parameters above, mesocyclones are
expected. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" should be possible near
mesocyclones and where convection of different levels of
organization haphazardly merges, with local totals up to 4"
possible. Cell training is also possible as the deep layer flow
is fairly unidirectional out of the south-southwest. This flow
veers slightly with time which should allow for a slight eastward
shift and would theoretically limit even higher totals. The 18z
hi-res NAM and 12z ARW are on opposing sides of the guidance
spread, but at the moment, the 18z NAM appears to be doing
somewhat better. The guidance all appears too wet in northeast TX
at the present time, but given the incoming shortwaves from the
west and southwest, additional convection is possible in that area
at some point. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hXn_qD-Chh8OyMtbaonMLdCxO41R6d7gNxlB2gNo1GmXoX83zp-vlXgwgPFLCDSp6aR= x6q6_iWDZP02x1MvXegThV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39029383 38769202 36599238 33899435 32109697=20
31739900 33089868 34639827 35959795 36139782=20
37599547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast IL, northwest IN, and southwest Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070128Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave is attempting to hold up convection
from in and near Chicagoland into southwest Lower Michigan.=20
Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective wave across central IL is
beginning to hold up convection in northeast IL rather close to
Chicago. Precipitable water values are near 1.3", ML CAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 35 kts.

The concern is that heavy rainfall will occur over a portion of
Chicago's urban area, which includes far northeast IN. Some of
southwest MI may see cell training as well. This situation does
not appear to be handled well by recent mesoscale guidance. The
parameters suggest hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4"
are possible, which would be a problem in urban areas from a flash
flooding perspective over the next several hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wtNSRhaJZ0b-AkHJXJPRJ-g52HW4bwZseH-lj-Q-xnH-Roh6js4fiYsVibky7S7LO4F= 2MsfA3vV46HJbvhEzA2vAMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42598593 41578648 40758845 40648918 40878939=20
41018930 41548830 42178709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-070152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062252Z - 070152Z

Summary...A weak wave across western IL is holding up convective
progression across central IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be a problem in urban
areas.

Discussion...In the wake of a mesoscale convective wave moving
into north-central IL, the system's convective tail is being held
up by a weak wave seen in the thermal field across western IL.=20
Hourly rain amounts are up to 1.5" per radar estimates. ML CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg lies to its south, effective bulk shear is ~35
kts, and precipitable water values are ~1.4".

It appears cell training in this region could last for 2-3 hours.=20
In this time, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cu3PDWDwuxUiKwxwzpex5n8GbOkxAy35vzo6ex4qu-gnai0fFMgebW8YOLYV_NLTWJN= BYzCADTNScwVUB8N0-NjP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828877 40488805 39888912 39629031 40388936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-070654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...in and near Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070054Z - 070654Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of Iowa which have recently received heavy rainfall. Widely
scattered occurrences of flash flooding are possible over
partially saturated soils and in urban areas.

Discussion...The leading edge of an upper low over the West is
pushing across portions of Nebraska and southeast SD at this time.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms have begun to blossom near a
surface low due to the difluent flow aloft ahead of this feature.=20 Precipitable water values are just over 1". MU CAPE of 500-1500
J/kg lies across IA along with effective bulk shear of 30-65 kts.

Moisture should increase further across IA with time, with
precipitable water values eclipsing 1.25" in some areas.=20
Sufficient instability should be available to keep convection
going well into the overnight period. Hourly rain amounts up to
2" are possible where mesocyclones form, cell training occurs, and
where lesser and greater organized convection merges. Local
totals should stay at or below 3". The flow noticeably veers as a
front progresses eastward, which should limit overall totals.=20
However, given recent saturation, hourly rain amounts could be
sufficient to exceed the low flash flood guidance values seen
across a good portion of IA. Widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible through 07z, both over partially
saturated soils and within urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t-DVljKG8AePntYFJXiFaWqOUul6m6NleTEz-6TA7k68JCDan_Ut9hsSHGs-VWS4Bj3= Z1QII3DY3X-BNzoIM31_5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43709310 43369042 41699019 40319259 40109486=20
40619596 42499611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070430
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, northwestern AR
into southwestern/central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070428Z - 071000Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms from northeastern OK into
central MO and adjacent portions of southeastern KS and
northwestern AR is likely to result in at least isolated to widely
scattered areas of flash flooding over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but isolated 2+ inch
per hour rainfall will be possible.

Discussion...At 04Z, a line of thunderstorms was observed on area
radar imagery from northeastern OK into southwestern and central
MO, with a history of training and peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall just over 2 inches between Tulsa and Pryor, OK, just
south of I-44. This line has been established for a few hours now
and has resulted in a region of rain-cooled air being overrun by a
40-60 kt low level jet. The SW to NE orientation of the line,
matching deeper layer steering flow has resulted in areas of
training, but the line of storms has shown some eastward
translation over the past hour or so. Farther south, additional
convective development has increased over southeastern OK, within
weakly confluent low level flow, and is advancing northward into
the southern extent of the aforementioned line in northeastern OK.

Areas of training are ongoing from northeastern OK into
southwestern MO, and this is likely to continue in the short term.
While overall eastward movement is expected, the most likely area
for training storms will be along the southwestern flank where the
low level jet intersects the line. Meanwhile, 1000 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE extended from the MOKSAROK intersection into central OK,
ahead of a cold front/dryline extending SSW from eastern KS into
west-central OK. A line of thunderstorms is expected to become
better established as the cold front continues to sweep
southeastward through 09Z, eventually bringing another round of
locally heavy rain to portions of northeastern OK. While this
second round of storms is expected to remain progressive, up to an
additional inch or so of rain will add onto locally heavy totals
from the initial round of thunderstorms ongoing. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible with locally
scattered coverage possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_C8PkJrA_Owm1xEsyOiWlev0uastmEwoOXMM7o6CzP4SIXhGqA7dVgZGWKsVHZsllej= U5my1FNm5afr5JQ-qT0xemg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38429281 38409202 38259130 37739134 37089182=20
36399277 35569413 35209490 35179550 35409584=20
35779609 36279599 36849542 37479443 37879367=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070551
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...IA/IL/WI junction into southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070547Z - 070920Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with 1-2 inches per hour may
produce localized flash flooding from the IA/IL/WI tri-state
region into southern WI through 09Z.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery over southern WI showed the
presence of an MCV or at least a northern bookend vortex about 30
miles NW of Madison, WI. The motion of this feature was toward the
ENE at a rapid pace of 40-50 kt. A strong low level jet of 40 to
70 kt (70 kt @ KDVN at 0504Z) was helping to rapidly transport
rich low level moisture to the north where it intersected a
southwestward extending line of storms from near the MCV center.

Forecast motion of the MCV takes it into central Lake Michigan
within the next 3-4 hours but there could be areas of training
along the axis of thunderstorms flanking the southwestern quadrant
of the circulation, with 1 to 2 inches per hour despite limited
MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg. While recent hires models do not have a good
handle on this feature, short term observational trends and
extrapolation indicate the best potential for training from the
IA/IL/WI tri-state region into southern WI with potential for 1 to
2 inches of rain in about an hour through about 09Z. Given 3-hr
flash flood guidance values below 2 inches across the region,
minor flash flooding will be possible, especially if there is
overlap with any urban locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CbYSD-aj5mdLKSEPKlqZHichx8ffHHTjA6qAX6Jpx9_NZ16baOGfYA71z2Dj4NN2LoQ= znJ-AGHq9Ali2DPmnbzgfoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43858844 43808755 42798771 42398875 42168975=20
42249059 42509082 42869048 43508957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into AR and
southeastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070955Z - 071530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
northeastern TX, southeastern OK into AR and southeastern MO
through 15Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be common
within cell training, but isolated 2+ inch per hour rainfall
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been
gradually increasing from northeastern TX into western/central AR
over the past hour, ending 0940Z. The continued transport of low
level moisture into the region and perhaps some weak low level
confluence has contributed to the recent increase as low level CIN
decreases. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms was located to the
west, along a NE to SW oriented cold front, analyzed from a GMJ to
ADH to DYS line at 09Z. The environment from southeastern OK into
central AR consisted of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.4 to 1.6 inch
PWATs and sufficient effective bulk shear values for organized
storms, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

At least a modest increase in the coverage of cells is expected to
continue from far northeastern TX into western/central AR over the
next few hours with some degree of continued moisture advection
beneath diffluent flow aloft. The environment will continue to
support a line of thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front
as it continues to advance southeastward, reaching southeastern OK
by 12Z and central AR by 15Z. As thunderstorm coverage fills in
from southeastern OK into central AR, cell mergers and training
potential will increase. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be
common where cell training occurs and isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall
values will also be possible. Peak storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches should be expected through 15Z which could produce isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Below average
precipitation experienced over much of the region over the past
few weeks may act to mitigate flash flooding to urban overlap or
otherwise poorly drainage locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!572Q3M5-9eW4h4Gdt6dqk8Vs-JAifHlJSFikncaokp8cFUECJNgx_bLRNBSaimpMRnR2= _ZLxbaqeT_K0mBGqvi_BF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37099014 36168967 35189033 33709311 33439515=20
33819637 34829581 36089355 37029134=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081700Z - 082130Z

SUMMARY...Risk of low-end, widely scattered incidents of possible
flash flooding continue for a few more hours. Localized rates up
to 2"/hr

DISCUSSION...Surface to 850mb analysis shows the shallow cold air
remains in place across the Coastal Plain of South Texas with
surface north/north-easterlies across nearly all of the state.=20
However, onshore flow has veered a bit toward southeast continues
to isentropically ascend across the front which is banked up along
the coast itself. Northeasterly flow through 925mb at EWX
combined with recent CIRA LPW in the Surface to boundary layer
level align to denote the moisture gradient aligns with
directional convergence. MUCAPEs have modified slightly since
this morning, but remain with pockets of values nearing 1500 J/kg
to support the stronger vertical ascent for these scattered
thunderstorms. Divergence aloft continues to be fairly solid in
the weak split in the upper-level sub-tropical jet streak; but the
upstream ridging is increasing and advecting eastward in WV
showing the favorable environment will continue to shift and
eventually diminishing through the evening as it reaching the
central TX coast toward Victoria, TX

Longer trend animation shows the 925 to 850mb just east of Rio
Grande River near/centered around Cotulla; though WAA extends
through 700mb before veering sufficiently for nearly west to east
steering flow. This effective bulk shear nearing 50+kts along
with RADAR animation shows updrafts have modest rotation to
further isallobarically increase moisture flux convergence to
broaden the updrafts increasing rainfall efficiency. Bunker's
right mover propagation vectors allow for the more eastward
deflection and slowing of forward motions to allow for increasing
overall rainfall duration. Given total flux of the 1.75" at
10-15kts through the low levels as increased rainfall efficiency
in these cells toward 2"/hr with occasional localized upticks to
2.5". As such localized streaks of 2-4" are starting to form and
near the longer/higher FFG values (3-4"/3hrs). As such,
localized flash flooding remains possible though likely remain
widely scattered to scattered in overall coverage with overlap
into urban centers resulting in the greatest flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87kuqhY-PHOB8lpVdiEFATdF6AtIQzNEIP7IVPmpoLZjcG8lbRy0R0e63zzRLJHC7FVb= a5iY9d4hrVl9oZFkS6e-Snc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29749720 29629635 29379606 28989601 28599622=20
28279687 28189739 28099840 28169892 28469928=20
29019937 29509900 29739809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091713
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091715Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Broadening upstream redevelopment of
showers/thunderstorms with potential for increased
training/repeating through afternoon. Rates increasing from 1 to
1.5"+/hr with 2-3" totals over wet upper-soils posing localized
possible flash flooding risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts a small and fairly compact
roll-up vortex/shortwave over north-central OK shifting ENE along
interface of strong zonal westerlies to the north and increasingly
flattening sub-tropical stream across TX. This sub-tropical jet
speed max at 70kts has left exit divergence favorably aligned over
AR at this time helping to support/maintain initial convective
activity into a broader complex. RADAR and EIR shows the leading
edge of the convection has seen an uptick in activity/cooling as
the cluster further expands into a weak bow like forward
propagating MCS. The positive dPVA from the approaching shortwave
is maintaining solid 40+ kts of west-southwesterly LLJ that slowly
continues to veer with bulge of enhanced total PWats up to 1.7"
interfacing with the upwind edge of the cluster. This will
continue to support upwind flanking redevelopment on the
isentropic moisture flux convergence (as noted with some weaker
elevated development across Yell/Logan and Johnson counties at
this time.

RAP analysis along with GOES-E Visible imagery shows increasing
clearing downstream east of the MS River and with slightly higher
surface moisture; instability is starting to climb over 1000 J/kg
perhaps reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours to further fuel
the leading convective cells. Given the strength of moisture
convergence, rain-rates will increasing from near 1"/hr currently
toward 1.5"-1.75"/hr over the next few hours. As the inflow
veers, and some weak divergence in the deeper layer steering flow
across MS into AL, propagation should deflect southeastward a bit
increasing the potential for the flanking development to
repeat/train across east-central AR along and south of the TN/MS
border (in proximity to an old eroding stationary front).

As such, an axis of 2-3" totals are probable. Recent moderate to
heavy rainfall has increased soil saturation over the last few
days with current NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm ratios around 60-65% or
slightly above normal. As such, increased run-off is possible and
may result in possible localized flash flooding (as FFG values
1.5-2"/hr; 2-3"/3hrs).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dAQwJKs4_u-8TvD6FLNcw5R__R8vOGlBxm4jPVMHErZbzOT0GBX90SS_B4FdjH9Z3XP= 52NByVPw9jnWkB0J219ny5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35629295 35619178 35439024 35058830 34578749=20
33778780 33468887 33619089 34059281 34709372=20
35369357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092131
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100329-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern MS and AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092129Z - 100329Z

Summary...Backbuilding/training showers and thunderstorms are
showing some increase in hourly rain amounts as of late. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been showing some
backbuilding and training character across portions of northern MS
and northern AL, as new activity forms near an instability/thermal gradient/pseudo front and then propagates east, downstream. This
is occurring within an axis of some low-level confluence and ahead
of a very positively tilted shortwave moving across southern MO
and northwest AR, which is adding upper level diffluence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.4-1.8". ML CAPE to the south is
1000-2000 J/kg.

The 18z GFS-bases GDI implies further increase in cell coverage
and intensity through at least 00z, which is seen at times within
the 18z HREF and 12z REFS guidance. The area of low-level
confluence is expected to shift east with time along with the
parent upper level shortwave. Given the available ingredients,
hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.=20
Given the somewhat lowered flash flood guidance from recent rains,
flash flooding is expected to be widely scattered in coverage,
with urban areas most sensitive.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7T4DzFEPuF-viri77kXj2gMO2pn24WoR5Kz3a6HYAWivFfTzypaIbnI3GhL9c0flkEnF= EZ2s8ND0UgNI7BCoUoSLLno$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35138808 35058686 33908502 33328546 32348783=20
33459038 34388969 35048869=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100323
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...central AL into west-central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100320Z - 100715Z

Summary...A localized risk of flash flooding will persist across
central AL into west-central GA through 06Z to 07Z. Training with
peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes and up to
2-3 inches total rainfall may occur.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery from KFFC showed an MCV just
northwest of Atlanta, associated with a weakening convective
cluster over the AL/GA border. The MCV was tracking steadily
toward the east and cloud tops have been warming on infrared
imagery over the past 1-2 hours as instability weakens. However, a
remnant outflow boundary was analyzed from western GA into central
AL, and was aligned WNW to ESE or parallel to mean storm movement.
MLCAPE has been lowering per SPC mesoanalysis trends between 00Z
and 03Z but 500-1000 J/kg likely remained along and south of the
outflow boundary.

Some ascent will remain across the region ahead of a mid-level
shortwave located over the MO Bootheel at 03Z, with 20-30 kt of
southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overrunning the outflow boundary
from MS into AL and GA. While the window for flash flooding is
shrinking, there will remain some limited potential for an
additional 1-3 inches of rain from portions of central AL into
west-central GA.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8cb38SomtAxAHQ4y82lrqMJ0hKANJTS6kQvBRMpFHDlf8E51PDWUYt1xclqDrxVXj8sO= Hl2LrorvMmZK8mizs5DebHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078419 34008362 33598306 33148295 32628342=20
32388406 32398492 32608646 33028760 33638818=20
34038770 33848674 33768601 33738512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Hill Country into Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102103Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage going through the evening hours. High
rainfall rates capable of exceeding 2 inches/hour along with some
periodic cell-training concerns will support a threat for some
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined
southern stream closed low and associated mid-level trough
ejecting across northern Mexico. This energy will be gradually
crossing the Rio Grande Valley going into the evening hours, but
will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled
across large areas of central TX, including the Hill Country.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place across the
region with effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50
kts. Already CI appears to be underway based on the latest
satellite and radar data west of a line from Del Rio to San
Angelo. As the upstream shortwave energy gradually arrives, and
what is left of the warm mid-level CAP erodes, convection should
expand rather rapidly near and to the east of a dryline.

A combination of multicells and supercells are expected within an
anomalously moist environment characterized by PWs of 1.25+
inches, with these values running about 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of the year.

Rainfall rates will be capable of locally exceeding 2 inches/hour
with the stronger and more organized convective cells, and some
upscale growth into an elongated MCS is generally expected by
later this evening. This will be supported by a convergent
low-level jet reaching 30 to 40+ kts. Some cell-mergers and
periodic cell-training can be expected, with some localized swaths
of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible.

These rains will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding given the high rainfall rates and locally sensitive
terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-lC1A621pQswQp_M-xmUpnsH_VOPGMbO157Q0JLugxibBst1mQP3Sm5pQQiUFwjHJWHG= cimM2CDb3vHpCd6zyBWqsG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33039909 32909793 31959754 30329885 29430014=20
29290111 29920205 30890183 32310052=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102131
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southeast WI...Northern IL...Northwest
IN...Southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102130Z - 110330Z

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and increase
in coverage this evening. High rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour coupled with cell-training concerns will drive a
threat for flash flooding, including for the Chicago metropolitan
area, going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest RAP analysis along with surface
observations shows a quasi-stationary front draped from southeast
IA through northern IL and into southern Lower MI. Multiple waves
of low pressure are transiting the front. Meanwhile, the boundary
layer along and south of the front continues to rapidly
destabilize with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg seen nosing up
across northeast MO through central IL. This is also occurring
ahead of a wave of low pressure over southern IA.

Upstream shortwave energy along with the eastward advance of this
surface low will drive the development and expansion of strong to
severe thunderstorms across sizable areas of the Midwest over the
next several hours. This convection is then expected to gradually
evolve into a couple of larger scale MCS clusters this evening.
The 18Z HREF guidance and recent special RAOB soundings shows a
strongly sheared kinematic environment, including along the
aforementioned front, which coupled with the available instability
should strongly support supercell thunderstorms at least
initially. Cell-mergers and upscale growth of MCS activity will
favor heavy rainfall totals in addition to the severe hazards.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected which will be
aided by a strong low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts. This enhanced
moisture and instability transport into the front should persist
well into the evening ahead of the approaching low center which
will favor convective sustenance. Cell-training concerns will
exist in time given nearly parallel alignment of the deeper layer
steering flow with the front. This will support concerns for as
much as 2 to 4 inches of rain locally which will drive a threat
for areas of flash flooding.

This threat will extend across the more urbanized locations
including the Chicago metropolitan area. The primary concern for
excessive rainfall totals for this period will be across northern
IL, but expect northwest IN and southwest Lower MI to also see
this threat materialize late this evening and into the overnight
period.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4tkbRv6AWfHvB_Pfak0CkgURwQLo4u8dMnTMDSaPAgHKgx0kTTqrTSpdB9DQhfin_EFR= f-PCtqkDF8E4XGzveS7td40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42718717 42588590 41908557 41268601 40648747=20
40488904 40759037 41419074 42089016 42548857=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110216
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS into central MO/western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110212Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce a SW to
NE oriented stripe of heavy rain from southeastern KS into
central/northern MO. Flash flooding will be possible in a few
areas with 1 to 2 in/hr rates at times over the next 3-5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0150Z showed thunderstorms
expanding in coverage near Wichita, KS, which was the location of
a surface low and attendant cold fronts. Another group of
thunderstorms was located near a surface low in northern MO while
additional thunderstorm development was expanding between the two
surface lows along the frontal boundary from eastern KS into
north-central MO. SPC mesoanalysis and area 00Z soundings within
the warm sector showed PW values of 1.0 to 1.3 inches and MLCAPE
of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg from southeastern KS into MO.

The cold front is forecast to slowly by steadily advance toward
the southeast over the next few hours but a strengthening low
level jet with 850 mb wind speeds increasing in coverage and
magnitude into the 50-60 kt range from southeastern KS into MO,
will support increasing convergence of storms along the boundary.
Mean storm movement parallel to the boundary will allow for
training of cells and 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates as the
cluster(s) of thunderstorms advance eastward with time. Storm
total rainfall through 07Z of 1 to 3 inches is expected, but much
of that could fall within 1 to 2 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bKxiNe35-zdAn05yFCfxvJMNpMjns8sui7UVs8Igzc1H0RcQ9HeB3pmsvKrA6aQ_GWE= JyQD74mTWjIZ3B7e4U5yxeo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41239017 40708960 39628964 38639149 37709417=20
37089624 36969803 37449813 38119730 39309487=20
39849352 40659244 41159108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110327
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL into northern IN, northwestern OH
and southern MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110324Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms are likely to result in a few
areas of flash flooding from northeastern IL into northern IN,
northwestern OH and southern MI through 09Z. 1 to 2 in/hr rates
and 2 to 4 inches of storm total rainfall can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous coverage of thunderstorms was
ongoing over portions of the Midwest at 03Z with a training axis
of cells from west to east through south-central Lower Michigan
(locally 2+ in/hr), a forward propagating segment from southern
Lake Michigan into northeastern IL and additional thunderstorms
upstream. These storms were a combination of surface based and
elevated with sufficient instability and moisture to produce 1 to
2 in/hr rain rates where training was occurring.

Ahead of the approaching upper trough, strengthening 850 mb winds
of 40-50 kt will spread northward through the Midwest into Lower
Michigan with overrunning of the front and rain-cooled boundaries
within the warm sector. These storms will propagate overall in an
eastward fashion, ahead of large scale ascent associated with an
amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the northern High
Plains. However, areas of training are likely where cells orient
with the mean steering flow from the west to southwest. A second
round of convection is expected to approach northern IL from the
southwest in the 07-10Z time frame tied to thunderstorms moving
across the mid-MS Valley. 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates will be common
within areas of training and storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is
expected where cell training maximizes through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YXQzp0WBLGmq37RbsyrVGLD9nd4E_oCY6E_eeiefE_GPYR8u8X96yci7Mb734hL8dC0= IIqkh2POK96yvvxoPpY5ee8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44198346 44028268 43358224 42558233 41758268=20
41128434 40858614 40758764 40878921 41898928=20
42468705 43528596 43958454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110528
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...central to northeastern TX, southeastern OK and
southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110526Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain from SW to NE is becoming
increasingly likely from portions of central/northeastern TX into
southwestern AR and possibly southeastern OK. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr and storm totals of 2-4 inches through 10Z along with
isolated flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...05Z infrared satellite imagery showed two regions of
colder cloud tops over the Southern Plains, one over eastern OK
and another over south-central TX. Radar imagery and surface
observations showed an outflow boundary between these two regions=20
of convection which extended from just west of Clarksville, TX to
near Corsicana and southwestward to near Gatesville where the
boundary intersected an eastward advancing line segment over
central TX.

A 50-60+ kt 850 mb low level jet (sampled via VAD wind data from
KEWX and KGRK) will help to slow the southward advancement of the
outflow over northeastern TX, and will likely support increasing
thunderstorm development along and north of the boundary. Low
level moisture transport will also act to reduce a relative dry
layer between 850-700 mb as seen on OSPO LPW and RAP analysis
point soundings across the northern Piney Woods section of
northeastern TX. Mean steering flow oriented parallel to the low
level axis of convergence will likely support areas of training as
the advancing convection presently over central TX makes its way
eastward. Additional, more discrete convective development will
also be possible over portions of east-central and northeastern
TX, out ahead of the advancing convective line, but this potential
is a bit uncertain. With or without the development of discrete
cells out ahead of the main cluster, it is appearing more likely
that areas of training will occur through 10Z from northeastern TX
into southwestern AR with 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates from training.
Localized flash flooding will be possible with 2 to 4+ inches of
peak storm total rainfall expected.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4fbnMO9VYH8iZH3LBiBz9oypgjNWu-931qlX_Mi7QkuuYxAras5dIugajCII3BK1K8LK= O87OCJH8M8shVaHD2v452IE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779291 34469230 33709240 33309280 32509363=20
31679442 30919577 30989736 31349792 31629802=20
32099777 32729687 33229614 33829530 34609432=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110853
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...eastern IL, central IN into northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110851Z - 111400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training will increase the potential for
localized flash flooding from portions of eastern IL into central
IN and northern OH through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and
storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...0830Z regional radar imagery showed a broken and
elongated axis of thunderstorms from near St. Louis into central
IL and western IN, followed by another linear segment over
northeastern IN into northwestern OH. These convective axes were
located within the warm sector of a WSW-ENE oriented frontal
boundary, represented by 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE from
south-central IL into northwestern OH along with PWs of about 1.0
to 1.5 inches (08Z SPC mesoanalysis).

Some minor strengthening of 925-850 mb southwesterly flow (up to
~60 kt) is expected to advance from southern IL into IN and
eventually western OH over the next few hours, helping to focus
one more more axes of convergence near convectively induced
outflow boundaries which will at times be in general alignment
with the mean steering flow from the WSW to SW. This setup will
support training of heavy rain at times with 1 to 2 inches per
hour likely within any axes of training.

Forecasts of instability from the RAP are for a gradual reduction
through 14Z across IL/IN/OH which will act to decrease rainfall
intensity but strong divergence within the right-entrance region
of a powerful 150+ kt upper jet max to the north may help to
compensate for the forecasts of lessening instability. Therefore,
a chance for localized flash flooding seems plausible across the
Midwest over the next 3-6 hours with potential for storm totals of
2 to 4+ inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Z8cFphTvW_N8XFRMYwpQkbaXxErJGIprrWPEANPT9DQhVwQmEJMv9LGPheKZYpsmAo5= hBXdZ-oVJ1wK-8GuROINSvE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42108112 41728081 41108194 40548310 39458592=20
39148846 40248901 41158743 41688553 41668451=20
41668360 41718284=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 110956
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX into central/southern AR and
northwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110954Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm intensity and
potential training appears likely over the next few hours from
northeastern TX into central/southern AR and northwestern LA.
Training of thunderstorms will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and possible flash flooding through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends in GOES East infrared satellite imagery over
northeastern TX through 0930Z have shown an increase in colder
cloud tops over the past hour, related to an increase in rainfall
intensity along a narrow convective axis, out ahead of a forward
propagating convective line extending from the southern OK/AR
border into east-central TX. This activity was located to the
north of a weakly defined outflow boundary which has made it all
the way to the Houston metro and the recent uptick appears to be
related, at least in part, to increased low level moisture seen
advecting north on OSPO ALPW imagery in the surface to 700 mb
layer over eastern TX/western LA. Confluent flow just above the
surface located beneath modestly diffluent upper level winds was
observed over the TX/AR border where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was
estimated on the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis with little to no inhibition.

Low level moisture transport into the region and low level
confluence appear to remain in the short term forecast across the
ArkLaTex and eastward into southern AR and northwestern LA. Given
sufficient instability looks to remain present across the region
over the next 3-6 hours via recent RAP forecasts, an axis of heavy
rain looks likely to setup from northeastern TX into AR/LA. While
this expected SW to NE axis of heavy rain should generally move
from west to east, there is the potential for the southwestern
flank of the axis to stall, supporting the potential for increased
training and rain rates that could exceed 2 in/hr. However, more
likely rain rates within training should fall in the 1-2 in/hr
range. Through 15Z, 2 to 4+ inches of rain will be possible, much
of which could fall within 2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uI-asL2kWpYIuDXduHCMxNuxYzA8JgQ7Ajo5KuVy07eO8Qqht4G9OoHK1K5yMdEgfj6= 8Bl-L0RfqDeiXC9FeahlHVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35309103 34999037 33429120 31619338 31059480=20
31729528 33069475 34859258=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 111652
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111650Z - 112250Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours. Locally
high rainfall rates, moistening antecedent conditions and some
cell-training concerns will maintain a threat for additional
runoff problems including isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery along with radar
shows broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing
across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. More broadly,
this activity is associated with strong warm air advection and
moisture transport continuing to lift northeastward ahead of a
wave of low pressure over southern Lower MI by also with the
advance of multiple shortwave impulses across the region.

Warm-sector diurnal heating with increasing solar insolation is
noted over central and southern OH and extending back to the
southwest over northern KY, southern IN and southeast IL. This has
allowed for these areas to increasingly destabilize, and MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted here with 3-hour MUCAPE
differentials of locally 250 to 500+ J/kg seen from far southern
IN and northern KY through central WV. This is allowing for a
well-defined differential heating/outflow boundary to establish
itself which is expected to become an increasing focus for
convection going through the afternoon hours. This will further be
facilitated by arrival of a new shortwave impulse from the Midwest
which should yield favorable 400 to 700 mb DPVA within the broader
warm air advection regime to drive deeper layer ascent.

Meanwhile, areas downstream over western PA and far western NY are
under the influence of a lead shortwave impulse with focused warm
air advection and DPVA yielding broken areas of convection. Some
hints at mesocyclone activity is noted in radar over Lake Erie,
and this may help to bring locally focused rains into far western
NY in a couple of hours. The 12Z HREF/06Z REFS guidance does
attempt to bring the upstream convection back over some areas of central/southern OH through northern WV and southwest PA later
today.

Expecting a gradual uptick in rainfall rates capable of reaching
1.5"/hour with the stronger storms. Given the cell-training
concerns near the aforementioned differential heating/outflow
boundary, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. This will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4epEr0m_uTWVSbIfLr7vCQwmeFuPccCynI3AOkF4kTvyEbQ64setvRY_4fU5ij9gNgh0= Y3tb4NkGOR-qT7LFqWi1mCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL... LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42827882 42437812 40997863 39528042 38428376=20
37878744 38018892 38448943 38948890 40148540=20
40948307 42168059=20

=3D =3D =3D
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