ACUS11 KWNS 141934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141933=20
FLZ000-142130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141933Z - 142130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ongoing along typical sea breeze
fronts may briefly organize with the potential for sporadic hail and
some damaging gusts. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1925 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed scattered thunderstorms had developed and begun to mature
along typical sea breeze boundary corridors across the southern and
eastern FL peninsula. Strong surface heating amid upper 60s to low
70s F surface dewpoints was supporting 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
While deep-layer flow is modest, easterly low-level flow and 180
degree opposed 20-25 kt winds aloft are supporting sufficient
deep-layer shear (25-30 kt) for organized multicells and some
transient supercell structures. Given the storm mode and favorable thermodynamics, a few of the stronger cells appear capable of
sporadic hail. Additionally, high PWAT content could support a few
stronger downdrafts capable of damaging gusts.

Current trends and recent CAM guidance suggests convection should
increase in coverage through this afternoon across the eastern and
southern parts of the FL Peninsula. Storms may intermittently
strengthen and weaken with some risk for localized severe weather.
Given overall storm organization will be transient, the severe risk
appears isolated enough that a watch will not be needed.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-KpWpd_xMLiwvGnC0_3StK-CtQJU9d5WAVgqwY0aJ_O-ji2YLEG3eP2I_XtpCoOEh4W2ALeVq= KV74Fye3steueeoLbs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26897991 25948002 25118029 25118068 25278112 25588123
25908165 26168168 26688143 27768116 27998080 27928029
27328002 26897991=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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