ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered storms may produce large hail from eastern New
Mexico and western Texas into southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana on Friday. Strong to severe storms may also occur across
western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across portions of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A closed low across the Great Basin will become an open wave and
start to advance northeast toward the central Rockies. As this
occurs, lee troughing will begin across the southern and central
High Plains and into eastern Montana. A strong mid-level trough will
move southward across eastern Canada into the Northeast.

...Western Montana...
Weak to moderate instability will build across western Montana on
Friday as dewpoints increase into the mid 50s and mid-level
temperatures cool. Mid-level flow is forecast to increase to 30 to
40 knots across western Montana which will provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. The Marginal Risk was expanded slightly to
account for the likely extent of the threat given the 12Z guidance.

...Central Plains...
Surface moisture is forecast to back up near the terrain across
northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This will lead to weak to
moderate instability across the region. In addition to typical
terrain circulations, guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave
trough may emerge across the region and provide additional support
for storm development. Shear is forecast to remain relatively weak,
but weak to moderate instability, and steep lapse rates will support
some threat for severe wind gusts.

...Southern Plains into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana...
A southern stream mid-level jet streak is forecast to emerge from
northern Mexico into the southern High Plains. This ~40 knot jet
streak will overspread portions of the southern High Plains and the
dryline. This should provide ample shear for storm organization
during the afternoon/evening. Greater storm coverage and severe
potential may exist between Midland and Lubbock at the nose of this
stronger mid-level flow. However, there is still some uncertainty
with the timing/location of this jet streak, so will not add higher probabilities at this time.

Added 5% probabilities farther east across Oklahoma and into
southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. Moderate instability is
expected south of a frontal zone in this general area. This may be a
focus for storm development Friday afternoon/evening. Shear may be
somewhat weak, but the instability and frontal focus could support a
few strong to severe storms.

..Bentley.. 05/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential,
are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most
concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South
Dakota.

...Northern High Plains...
An upper low/shortwave trough will eject in negative tilt fashion
across the northern Rockies on Saturday, with a lobe of stronger
winds aloft across the area. Midlevel temperatures will be cool,
with -12 or colder at 500 mb. This, combined with an influx of low
60s F dewpoints into western SD and NE, will support moderate
instability. Further, surface winds will be backed to southeasterly,
as will winds at 850 mb, helping to transport moisture westward and
enhance storm relative inflow. Storms appear likely to form during
the late afternoon within the surface trough, with large hail and
perhaps brief tornado potential. Then, storms will likely merge into
a forward-propagating cluster or MCS, with damaging winds into the
evening.

...KS/OK/TX...
At least isolated severe activity appears possible Saturday
afternoon, including hail and damaging wind threat, as a moist and
unstable air mass develops. While the main upper wave will be well
to the north, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the
region, which when combined with upper 60s F dewpoints and daytime
heating, will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. A surface trough and
dryline are forecast to extend from central KS into western OK and
northwest TX, and surface convergence may be sufficient to support
sporadic cell development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate veering but weak shear profiles, however, slow-moving
supercells may occur with large hail and locally severe gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281839
SWODY3
SPC AC 281838

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential,
are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most
concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South
Dakota.

...Synopsis...
As a mid-level shortwave trough rotates from the Rockies into the
central Plains a lee surface cylcone will develop across western
Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas into the
Texas Panhandle.

...Northern High Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop from northern
Oklahoma and central Kansas back into western Nebraska and southwest
North Dakota where low to potentially mid 70s dewpoints are expected
to develop northeast of a surface dryline. While most of this
dryline should remain capped due to minimal forcing, storm
development is expected across northeast Colorado and northwest
Kansas into western Nebraska during the afternoon as the mid-level
trough advects across the region and mid-level temperatures cool.
Mid-level flow is initially forecast to remain relatively weak, but
strengthen to ~40 knots by late afternoon to early evening when
storm organization may improve. Steep lapse rates will support large
hail and severe wind gusts with these storms which may eventually
grow upscale into a cluster during the evening.

...Kansas into northwest Texas...
Farther south along the dryline, forcing will remain somewhat
nebulous amid rising heights aloft and weak convergence. However,
forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass with strong heating (mid
to upper 90s). This may support a few severe storms and if they
develop, some storm organization is possible given 50 to 70 knots of
flow forecast around 300mb. Damaging winds and perhaps some large
hail would be the primary threats with this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290726
SWODY3
SPC AC 290724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible
on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the
central and northern Plains.

...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northward across the
north-central U.S. on Sunday, as flow in its wake remains from the west-southwest. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop
over southern South Dakota as a dryline sharpens over western Kansas
and western Nebraska. A broad moist sector will be in place from the
dryline eastward to near the Mississippi River. Across much of this
moist airmass, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop
by afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible along low-level
convergence zones that setup in the afternoon. However, convective
coverage should remain isolated due to rising mid-level heights
associated with a ridge aloft. In spite of the weak forcing, the
environment will support an isolated severe threat with cells that
can initiate and persist. A few severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291856
SWODY3
SPC AC 291855

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible
on Sunday from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley into the
central and northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will build across the central portion of the CONUS
with a deepening trough moving from Quebec into the Northeast on
Sunday. A broad, weak surface trough will extend from the central
Plains to the northern Plains. A moist environment will exist ahead
of this trough with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.

...Northern Plains into the Central Plains and Ozarks...
A frontal zone is forecast to extend from the northern Plains to the
Midwest Sunday morning. South of this boundary, moderate to strong
instability is forecast to develop amid upper 60s to low 70s
dewpoints. Despite the strong instability along this frontal zone,
convective development (particularly strong storm development)
remains uncertain given strong height rises expected across the
region beneath the building ridge. However, if storms are able to
develop, 25 to 30 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
storm organization and perhaps some rotating updrafts. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

...West Texas to western Oklahoma...
Storms are expected to develop across West Texas Sunday afternoon
amid moderate instability. However, very weak mid-level flow will be
present across the region which will likely lead to storm mergers
and relatively quick upscale growth into a likely non-severe MCS.
Given the steep lapse rates across the area, some isolated severe
wind gusts may occur, particularly early in storm lifecycles. This
potential does not appear large enough for 5 percent probabilities
at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300731
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL U.S....AND FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Monday from the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and across parts of the Carolinas and southern Appalachians.

...Central Plains/Lower To Mid Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi
Valley/Northern Ozarks...
Mid-level heights will rise across the central U.S. on Monday as a
ridge builds northward across the region. A broad moist sector will
be in place from the central Plains eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, moderate to strong instability will develop over much of this
airmass. Due to rising heights, large-scale ascent in the central
U.S. will be limited. However, model forecasts suggest that zones of
low-level convergence will become focused, most prominently from
southern Kansas eastward into the northern Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may form along these
zones of convergence during the afternoon. The strongest instability
is forecast over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, where forecast
soundings have MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In
addition, 0-6 km shear in this area is forecast to be in the 25 to
30 knot range, which should be enough to support an isolated severe
threat. Hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

Further west into parts of central High Plains, some model forecasts
show an axis of low-level moisture and instability from western
Kansas into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms that
can develop near this axis of instability during the mid to late
afternoon may be associated with hail and isolated severe wind
gusts.

...Carolinas/Southern Appalachians...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move southward from the Great
Lakes into the central Appalachians on Monday. At the surface, a
slow-moving cold front is forecast to be located from the lower Ohio
Valley southeastward into the Carolinas. South of the front, surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. Lift along the frontal
zone will support thunderstorm development, with these storms moving southeastward into the moist sector during the afternoon. Model
forecasts to the south of the front in South Carolina suggest that
MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition,
moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are
forecast. This could be enough for an isolated potential for severe
wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301934
SWODY3
SPC AC 301933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with scattered severe wind gusts and large hail will
be possible Monday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, with mainly
damaging wind potential from the mid and lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley.

...Central Plains...
An upper low will remain situated over the northwestern states on
Monday, with various disturbances rotating into WY with glancing
influence into CO. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
develop over southeast Co with strongly backed/easterly low-level
winds north of the low across much of NE, KS and into eastern CO.
These easterly winds will maintain 50s F dewpoints into CO, where
strong heating and upslope flow should aid development near the
Front Range during the afternoon. Large hail will be likely with the
initial cells, with steep lapse rates aloft and 35+ kt deep-layer
shear aiding supercell development. With time, cells may
cluster/increase in coverage, with a severe MCS possible into KS
with damaging winds. Any such system also be supported by a 30-40 kt
low-level jet during the evening.

...Mid to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A northwest flow regime aloft will exist across the MS and TN
Valleys on Monday as an upper trough amplifies over the Northeast. A
very moist air mass will already be in place, with potential for
early day thunderstorms as well. Timing for severe is a bit
uncertain due to possible ongoing activity Monday morning over
southern MO and vicinity. If this occurs, the primary severe threat
would likely evolve from that activity as the outflow proceeds
southeastward across the moist/unstable air mass. Otherwise, new
activity will be possible within the zone from the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valley southeastward across the TN and lower MS Valley with daytime
heating. MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates
will favor forward propagation and widespread strong to locally
severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

...High Plains...
At mid-levels, a low and an associated shortwave trough will move
slowly eastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, southeasterly mid-level flow
will be in place over the top of a moist airmass in the northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to lower 60s F will
contribute the development of moderate instability across much of
the moist sector by afternoon. Model forecasts focus a zone of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon, ahead of a cold
front moving through the western Dakotas. Near this convergence
zone, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-northeastward into the warm sector during the late afternoon
and early evening.

Ahead of the front, forecast soundings near Bismarck in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear around 35
knots. This will support a potential for supercells with large hail.
In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to become very steep in
the late afternoon, which will coincide with relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads. This will be favorable for severe wind
gusts. The severe threat is expected to continue into the early to
mid evening as multiple storms move eastward into the central
Dakotas.

Further south into parts of the southern and central High Plains, a
moist and unstable airmass will be in place beneath considerably
weaker mid-level flow. In most areas, large-scale ascent will remain
limited. However, a few storms could develop along zones of
maximized low-level convergence. These storms will likely have
access to moderate instability and enough deep-layer shear for an
isolated severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible.

...Eastern Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move south-southeastward across the
southern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southward across southern Alabama and southern Georgia
during the day. South of the front, moderate instability is expected
to develop as surface temperatures warm. Steepening low-level lapse
rates in the afternoon should support an isolated wind-damage threat
with storms that form near and ahead of the front.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311936
SWODY3
SPC AC 311935

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOM EASTERN
WYOMING INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Tuesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the southern and
central High Plains, and along the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the eastern states is forecast to become a
cut-off low near or just offshore the Carolinas on Tuesday, with a
weak ridge extending from the southern Plains into the upper Great
Lakes. To the west, a shortwave trough will move out of MT and the
Dakotas and into southern Canada.

At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes into
the OH/TN Valleys, with dry air pushing across the MS Valley and
toward the Gulf Coast. A plume of relatively moist air will remain
from TX into the central Plains, with mid 60s F dewpoints as far
north as western KS and mid 50s F to the cold front in the Dakotas.

...Northern to Central High Plains...
Severe storms are most likely ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon from eastern WY into the central Dakotas. This area will
reside beneath the relatively stronger flow aloft, and midlevel
lapse rates will be steep. Southerly pre-frontal winds veering to
westerly with height will create wind profiles favorable for a few
supercells and bows forming over far eastern WY and spreading into
the Dakotas during the evening. The low-level jet will not be very
strong, but perhaps sufficient for a couple tornadoes.

Farther south, scattered storms are likely into the central and
southern High Plains as strong heating, southeast surface winds with
50s F dewpoints and a weak surface trough aid development by late
afternoon. Locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible
as lapse rates aloft remain steep, but shear marginal.

...Northern FL and Vicinity...
A cold front will push south during the day, as heating aids
moderate destabilization. Modest west to northwest flow aloft around
the southern periphery of the trough over the Carolinas will support
mobile clusters of storms mainly over the FL Panhandle and northern
FL by late afternoon and lasting through early evening. Storms may
produce locally strong wind gusts near peak heating, and a few cells
may produce marginal hail into northeast FL given relatively
stronger mid to high level flow. Isolated cells may also develop
along the east coast sea breeze.

..Jewell.. 05/31/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010714
SWODY3
SPC AC 010713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Northern Plains/Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
Northern High Plains on Wednesday, as southwesterly flow remains in
place over the Dakotas. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
move eastward into the central Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to an axis of moderate instability over the eastern
Dakotas by mid to late afternoon. Low-level convergence ahead of the
front and large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough
will support scattered thunderstorm development. Multiple small
clusters of storms appear likely to move eastward across the
instability corridor in the afternoon and evening.

Ahead of the front late Wednesday afternoon, forecast soundings from
northeast South Dakota into southeastern North Dakota have 0-6 km
shear in the 30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the
7 to 7.5 C/km range. This environment is expected to support
supercells with large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible,
mainly with any organized cluster that can persist into the early to
mid evening.

Further south across the central High Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. Although model
forecasts suggest that large-ascent will remain weak, isolated
storms could develop in areas where low-level convergence becomes
maximized. By late afternoon, forecast soundings in the central High
Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 0-3 km
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This would support an isolated threat for
severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF THE DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday in parts of the northern Plains, with widely scattered
strong wind gusts or marginal hail over parts of the central High
Plains.

...Northern Plains...
Slight cooling aloft will occur over ND into northern MN as a
shortwave trough slowly moves east across the area. Midlevel winds
of 35-45 kt are forecast, resulting in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt
as southerly winds of 30 kt develop at 850 mb. A cold front will
move into eastern ND and central SD during the afternoon, providing
a focus for storm development. MUCAPE may average around 1500 J/kg
with low 60s F dewpoints, though models disagree on this. Some
forecast soundings appear favorable for a supercells with good mid
to high level flow and increasing evening SRH, especially across the
Red River Valley and into northwest MN.

...Central Plains and into NM...
A moist and unstable air mass will remain over much of the central
and southern Plains as well as into NM. Shear will be weak, but the
air mass will be uncapped over this entire area as temperatures
aloft will remain relatively cool. As such, scattered areas of
thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon along the length of
the High Plains, with localized wind or hail. Moisture will push
westward across NM as well, again with isolated strong gusts or
small hail.

..Jewell.. 06/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low over southern Manitoba Thursday morning is
forecast to move into Ontario ahead of a weakening short-wave trough translating from the northern Rockies into northern Plains. A
separate disturbance is expected to progress through the central
Plains. In the low levels, a surface low will track from southern
Manitoba into northwest Ontario while a trailing cold front advances
through the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing
extension of the boundary will link with a surface low over eastern
WY.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes...

The synoptic front and low-level upslope flow north of the boundary
in the northern High Plains will be the main foci for strong to
severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into night. The
most favorable overlap of steep lapse rates, moderate instability,
and modestly strong vertical shear is expected to reside in those
same areas from the northern High Plains east into the mid MO
Valley.

Aided by forcing for ascent associated with weakening short-wave
trough, diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is anticipated
Thursday afternoon from portions of eastern MT into western SD, near
and to the north of the stalled surface front. The environment
appears supportive of supercell storm modes capable of large to very
large hail initially, especially across western SD. Some model
guidance suggests that the initial discrete storms may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating MCS that would advance east across SD
Thursday night with an associated risk for severe wind gusts.

A potentially separate strong to severe storm regime may materialize
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and
eastern NE into western IA in association with the lower-latitude
disturbance moving through those areas. Vertical shear will be
weaker than locations farther to the northwest; however, the
presence of a moderately unstable air mass may support isolated
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts.

Isolated to widely scattered, strong to severe storms may also
develop along the cold front across parts of the upper Great Lakes
into upper Midwest Thursday afternoon and evening with an associated
damaging wind and/or large hail risk.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021918
SWODY3
SPC AC 021917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great
Lakes.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level zonal flow with multiple embedded shortwave troughs is
forecast from the Northwest to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. At the
surface, high pressure will dominate much of the eastern CONUS with
a more nebulous surface pattern elsewhere.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains through the
day Thursday as a ~50 knot jet streak emerges across the eastern
Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. As
this occurs, upslope flow will strengthen/moisten across southwest
South Dakota into northeast Wyoming. This upslope region will likely
be the zone for initial severe storm development Thursday afternoon.
Additional storms may also develop eastward along the front and
southward along the dryline. The most favorable zone for severe
supercells is across western South Dakota where moderate to strong
shear will overlap moderate to strong instability near the surface
low/triple point. All severe weather hazards (including very large
hail) will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening with eventual
upscale growth into a MCS into the overnight hours.

Isolated to scattered storms are expected along the diffuse dryline
across the central/southern High Plains. However, mid-level flow is
expected to be weak across this region and lapse rates are not
expected to be that steep. Therefore, any severe weather potential
from this activity should remain quite isolated.

..Bentley.. 06/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030728
SWODY3
SPC AC 030727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected
Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest
into central Plains.

...Synopsis...

The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the
northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold
front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch
from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central
High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as
the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from
afternoon into Friday night.


...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of
the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity
expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However,
residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the
destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the
longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the
development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal
warm sector by mid to late afternoon.

Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the
synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to
contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe
weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains
into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that
broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe
storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from
parts of western WI and northern MN into central and eastern NE.
There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting
organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast
across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting
some tornado risk.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030849
SWODY3
SPC AC 030848

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected
Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest
into central Plains.

...Synopsis...

The primary upper-air feature of interest Friday is a short-wave
trough, which is forecast to amplify while progressing from the
northern Plains into the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. A cold
front associated with at upper-air system is expected to stretch
from the upper Midwest through the mid MO Valley into the central
High Plains by mid afternoon. That boundary is expected to serve as
the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development from
afternoon into Friday night.


...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of
the Midwest and possibly northern Plains, with that activity
expected to decrease in areal coverage through the morning. However,
residual cloudiness and convective outflow may slow the
destabilization process in areas where the storms linger the
longest. Outside of those areas, model guidance indicates the
development of moderate to strong instability within the pre-frontal
warm sector by mid to late afternoon.

Height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with low-level convergence along the
synoptic front and any remnant outflow boundaries are expected to
contribute to an areal increase in storms during the afternoon and
evening hours. An associated risk for at least isolated severe
weather appears possible in parts of the northern and central Plains
into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes region. Within that
broader envelope, a potentially more concentrated zone of severe
storms may materialize in the vicinity of the synoptic front from
parts of western WI and southern MN into central and eastern NE.
There, a favorable overlap of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and the
moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop, supporting
organized storm modes capable of mainly large to very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Some increase in low-level shear is forecast
across the mid MO Valley Friday evening, conditionally supporting
some tornado risk.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031922
SWODY3
SPC AC 031921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are expected
Friday afternoon into night across portions of the upper Midwest
into central Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains to
the Midwest on Friday with a 50 knot jet streak on it's southern
periphery. A cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest to the
central Plains. Strong to severe storms are expected along this
boundary on Friday and Friday night.

...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing from northeast Kansas
to southern Wisconsin on Friday morning within a region of moderate
isentropic ascent. This activity will likely be mostly sub-severe
given relatively weak instability. As the low-level jet weakens
during the morning, expect ongoing convection to weaken. In the wake
of these morning storms, strong instability is anticipated amid
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and very step lapse rates. As the
mid-level trough approaches, mid-level flow will strengthen. In
addition, forecast soundings show significant lifting of the cap
between 18Z and 23Z which should result in eventual storm
development along the front during the afternoon/early evening.
Strong instability and moderate to strong shear will support the
potential for supercells, including the potential for large to very
large hail. Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens Friday
evening, a tornado threat may materialize, conditional on supercell
storm mode in the 00Z to 03Z timeframe.

..Bentley.. 06/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds
initially over the Great Lakes will overspread the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. Meanwhile, an intense
upstream trough is forecast to move through the Canadian Rockies and
Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, with downstream height
falls and strengthening mid/upper-level winds advancing into the
northern High Plains. Elsewhere, a mid-level low initially centered
along the NM-TX state line is expected to evolve into an open wave
while lifting northeast across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a cold front will push through the Great Lakes, New
England, and OH Valley during the forecast period, while a lee
cyclone deepens along a cold front moving through the northern High
Plains.


...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

A westerly low-level jet will advect an increasingly moist air mass
through the Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast ahead of
the cold front on Saturday. The moisture increase will combine with
daytime heating to support a moderately unstable environment across
the OH Valley, with instability diminishing with northeastward
extent into New England. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon ahead of the short-wave
trough, and amidst a kinematic environment featuring 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. The most favorable overlap of stronger
instability, vertical shear, and forcing for ascent is expected to
materialize across the upper OH Valley Saturday afternoon, where
supercells will be possible with a higher-probability risk for large
hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, isolated occurrences of large
hail and/or damaging wind will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours.


...Northern High Plains...

The presence of steep lapse rates and increasing boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to contribute to a moderate to
strongly unstable air mass by afternoon ahead of the surface low and
cold front over eastern MT and western ND. Moisture wrapping around
the surface low is expected to reach into the high terrain of
central MT, supporting at least modest destabilization there.
Initial, isolated storms are expected in the post-frontal, upslope
environment in central MT Saturday afternoon, with storms
potentially not developing until Saturday evening in the vicinity of
the front in eastern MT and western ND, due to late-arriving forcing
for ascent. Vertical shear will strengthen through the day with the
kinematic environment favoring supercell storm modes with the
primary hazard being large hail.


...Southern Plains....

The models indicate a band of 30-35 kt mid-level winds developing
within the southeast quadrant of the upper low from southwest TX
into the Red River Valley Saturday afternoon. As a result, vertical
shear will be enhanced in those areas; however, the primary
uncertainty regarding some severe-storm threat is the effect of
early-day storms on afternoon air mass destabilization.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041850
SWODY3
SPC AC 041848

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a ridge will build across the Plains into the Upper
Midwest with an amplifying trough across the Northeast/eastern Great
Lakes and another trough centered over the Northwest. At the
surface, a weak surface low will be present across the Northeast
with a stronger surface low in the lee of the northern Rockies.

...Eastern Montana and western North Dakota...
As lee troughing intensifies on Saturday, low-level moisture will
advect northwestward into western North Dakota and eastern Montana.
This will result in strong to very strong instability by mid to late
afternoon. As the broader trough shifts east and height falls
overspread the Plains, expect storms to develop along the lee
trough/dryline in eastern Montana and move northeastward. As
mid-level flow strengthens through the day, shear will strengthen
and should support supercell storm mode. Large hail should be the
primary threat, but given relatively steep lapse rates across the
region, some severe wind threat will also exist.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will extend from the surface low in southern Quebec/New
England into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday morning. Moisture will
increase ahead of this front from west to east with increasing
instability, especially across Indiana and into western
Pennslylvania. Within this same zone, moderate mid-level flow will
overspread the region with moderate deep-layer shear forecast.
Storms are expected to develop along the front by mid afternoon and
move south-southeastward into the evening. Farther northeast,
dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 60s which should limit
instability somewhat which should support lesser storm
coverage/intensity along the font.

..Bentley.. 06/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050736
SWODY3
SPC AC 050735

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A vorticity maximum and associated jet streak within the base of
broader-scale troughing from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into
northern Intermountain Region Sunday morning are forecast to
translate into the northern High Plains by Sunday night. Meanwhile,
a short-wave trough will progress from the lower Great Lakes through
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a 40-50 kt
wind maximum in the mid levels. At the surface, an area of low
pressure and associated front are expected to remain
quasi-stationary over the western Dakotas Sunday, prior to advancing
slowly east Sunday night. Elsewhere, a cold front will move through
the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon.


...Northern Plains...

A hot, pre-frontal air mass is expected to develop Sunday afternoon
with steep lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to
low 60s contributing to moderate instability. Wrap-around moisture
on the backside of the surface front will support air mass
destabilization across portions of eastern MT into northeast WY as
well. The models suggest potentially separate severe thunderstorm
regimes evolving across the region Sunday afternoon and evening.
Isolated storms appear possible along favored terrain of central MT
into northeast WY, aided by increasing height falls downstream from
the approaching vorticity maximum and jet streak. Additional storms
appear possible along the surface front across the western Dakotas
as the strong boundary-layer heating erodes the capping.

Strengthening vertical shear will support supercells capable of
mainly large hail in post-frontal regime, and large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen during the evening;
however, relatively high LCLs are expected to limit a robust tornado
threat. The severe-weather threat may continue into Sunday night,
especially across western and central ND.


...Mid-Atlantic...

Daytime heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s are expected
to support moderate afternoon instability ahead of the cold front.
Latest model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop along the boundary, aided by forcing for
ascent associated with the short-wave trough. Forecast soundings
indicate largely unidirectional wind profiles with 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, which would favor some cold pool organization with
an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts into early
evening.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051923
SWODY3
SPC AC 051922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough will move from the East Coast to the
Atlantic with a strong ridge across the Great Lakes. A large scale
trough will be in place across the western CONUS with an embedded
shortwave trough moving from the Northwest to the northern Rockies
through the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend along the
High Plains from eastern Montana to West Texas.

...Northern Plains and Vicinity...
Moderate to strong instability will develop across the northern
Plains with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Farther west, wrap-around
moisture will result in modest destabilization into northeast
Wyoming and eastern Montana. Storms will first develop in this area.
While instability will be less within this zone, stronger mid-level
flow will support storm organization including the potential for
supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary
threat. In addition to this activity, additional storms are expected
along the dryline/front in central North Dakota where instability
will be greatest and temperatures are expected to warm into the
upper 80s to low 90s.

...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating and upper 60s dewpoints will support modest
destabilization ahead of the surface front across eastern Virginia
and vicinity on Sunday. Mid-level forcing associated with the
southeastward moving trough will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat from these storms with the threat
expected to wane after sunset.

..Bentley.. 06/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060728
SWODY3
SPC AC 060727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...

Mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the northern and central
High Plains Monday in the wake of a short-wave trough lifting into
central Canada, and ahead of an amplifying, upstream system tracking
from the northern Great Basin into northern Rockies. At the surface,
a frontal system extending from the eastern Dakotas to low pressure
over western KS Monday morning is forecast to weaken through the day
in response to falling pressures across the northern Rockies.


...Central High Plains...

Deepening low pressure over MT and WY in conjunction with a residual
surface low over southwest KS or northwest OK will promote the
westward advection of an increasingly moist air mass into the higher
terrain of eastern CO and southeast WY. That process will occur
beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates with a moderately
unstable environment developing by afternoon. In the absence of
appreciable forcing for ascent, daytime heating and lift along
favored terrain may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level winds
are forecast to strengthen through the day, yielding sufficient
vertical shear for supercells capable of large hail. There is some
model signal that an isolated hail and wind threat may spread into
western parts of NE and KS Monday evening.


...Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South...

A number of models suggest that thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday
morning across Ozarks or Ozark Plateau region within a zone of warm
advection occurring with the terminus of a nocturnal low-level jet
(LLJ). The LLJ is forecast to weaken through the morning, with
forcing for ascent becoming much more nebulous into afternoon. The
air mass along and south of an expected outflow boundary is forecast
to be quite moist and moderate to strongly unstable, and a few
severe storms appear possible during the afternoon. Vertical shear
will remain weak, which will limit the magnitude of any severe
weather threat. The primary uncertainty is exactly where the outflow
boundary will reside given considerable model variability in
precipitation distribution throughout the day. As such, no
severe-weather probabilities will be included in this forecast.

..Mead.. 06/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061930
SWODY3
SPC AC 061929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS LATE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible across the central High Plains Monday afternoon and
evening. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out over the far northern
Plains near the Canadian border into Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a shortwave trough will continue moving north across
central Canada, with height rises across the Plains during the day.
Scattered early day thunderstorms are expected to diminish across
the northern Plains and upper MS Valley as subsidence occurs aloft.

During the afternoon, a lee trough is forecast to redevelop from
eastern WY into CO and toward the OK/TX Panhandles, where strong
heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and a deeply mixed
boundary layer. Moisture will be more limited, but late-developing
southeast surface winds will eventually bring higher dewpoints
westward toward the surface trough.

...Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and early
evening over eastern CO, with more isolated activity along the
dryline into the TX Panhandle. Deep-layer shear near 35 kt as well
as increasing 850 mb winds may support a few clusters of storms
persisting into western NE and KS through the evening as well.
Locally damaging wind gusts appear most probable.

...Far northeast MT...Northern ND...Northwest MN...
A warm front will develop and surge northward late Monday night into
Tuesday morning, close to the Canadian border by 12Z. This will
occur ahead of a developing shortwave trough moving into the
northern Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated
CAPE will be possible, as a 40 kt southerly low-level jet brings
moisture northward. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, and may favor
isolated hail.

...Mid MS/OH Valleys...
A slow-moving midlevel wave is likely to be located over the Mid MS
to OH Valley, where a very moist air mass will exist. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely with this feature, which may also be
accompanied by stronger low-level shear on the mesoscale. However, predictability for this feature is low this far out in time.

..Jewell.. 06/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070723
SWODY3
SPC AC 070722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of the northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley
Tuesday afternoon into night. All severe-weather hazards are
possible. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms may also occur
across the central Plains, with a risk for large hail and damaging
winds.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks over
the northern Rockies Tuesday morning will overspread the northern
Plains by afternoon. Farther upstream, a significant short-wave
trough will assume an increasing negative tilt while translating
into the northern High Plains early Tuesday morning. At the surface,
a cyclone linked with the lead short-wave trough will deepen while
developing from southeast MT into western ND by afternoon.
Meanwhile, an associated Pacific front will push east into the
western Dakotas, with more of a dryline structure evident from
southwest NE into the OK and TX Panhandles.


...Northern and Central Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...

An active severe-weather period is anticipated Tuesday afternoon
into night, especially across the northern Plains, where all
severe-weather hazards are possible.

While the pre-frontal air mass over the western Dakotas is not
expected to be overly moist with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s,
strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will
contribute to moderate to strong instability by mid to late
afternoon. Some potential for early-day storms will exist in
northern ND, within a zone of persistent warm advection. Additional,
more intense thunderstorm activity is expected by mid afternoon from
the southern fringe of the early-day convection south along the
front as forcing for ascent increases with the approach of the
short-wave trough.

Vertically veering wind profiles with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear
will favor supercells capable of large to very large hail initially.
Some tornado threat could materialize during the evening hours as
LCL heights lower and the low-level shear increases. With time,
storms may grow upscale into clusters, with an increasing risk for
damaging winds spreading east through the Red River Valley.

Farther south, a number of models develop isolated to widely
scattered storms during the afternoon along the dryline in western
KS amidst a marginally sheared, but moderate to strongly unstable
environment. There is some signal that an MCS could evolve from that
activity across the mid to lower MO Valley Tuesday evening. Only 5% total-severe probabilities will be added in those areas, due to
uncertainty in that scenario.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071942
SWODY3
SPC AC 071941

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
and into the night. Several strong tornadoes, very large hail and
damaging winds will be possible. Elsewhere, isolated to widely
scattered severe storms may also occur across the central Plains,
with a risk for large hail and damaging winds.

...Dakotas into western Minnesota...
Significant severe storms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening,
with the greatest strong tornado potential across northern and
eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota and across the
international border.

A progressive shortwave trough will move out of the Rockies and
across the northern Plains, with a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max and
cooling aloft. Low pressure will develop into ND, and move into
southern Manitoba through 00Z. Importantly, a substantial warm front
is forecast to move through the area, with a rapid increase in
dewpoints and instability. There appears to be minimal failure mode
for the triple point/warm front, with little if any precipitation
forecast ahead of it, and a dry air mass north of it with some
capping. A low-level jet will also increase late in the day with
40-50 kt out of the due south at 850 mb. All this will combine to
produce a dynamic and potentially dangerous scenario for parts of
North Dakota, and/or perhaps near or just north of the Canadian
border. The steep lapse rates aloft, and favorable wind profiles
near and northeast of the surface low may conditionally favor
stronger tornadoes. However, given the setup is three days out, will
maintain Enhanced Risk with CIG1 due to uncertainties.

Otherwise, the entire warm sector extending into SD and western MN
will also be conducive to supercells and eventual bowing structures
with tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds.

Other severe storms may occur into the central Plains as well with
hail and wind. Substantial instability will also extend
southeastward into IL and surrounding areas, with more of a
conditional risk of isolated afternoon storms as lift will be weaker
in these areas.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080723
SWODY3
SPC AC 080722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts
appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of
large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

The 00z models have trended toward a similarly timed, but slightly
more amplified short-wave trough, which will move through the
northern Plains into upper MS Valley, in tandem with a 50-60+ kt jet
streak. Meanwhile, a stronger upstream system is forecast to amplify
across the northern and central Plains late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the eastern Dakotas into
central High Plains will push east into the upper Great Lakes. A
frontal wave is forecast to develop from eastern SD into central MN
by afternoon, where it may link with an outflow boundary extending
into central WI. The trailing extension of the front is expected to
stall across the mid or lower MO Valley in response to the deepening
of a surface low over the central or southern High Plains.


...Upper Mississippi Valley into upper Great Lakes and mid/lower
Missouri Valley...

A very moist boundary layer, characterized by boundary-layer
dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s is forecast ahead of the
front, which coupled with steep lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop by early afternoon along the surface front and
any outflow boundaries across the upper MS Valley, with subsequent, south/southwestward storm development into IA and the lower MO
Valley by mid to late afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear is
forecast across the upper MS Valley into upper Midwest, with
decreasing bulk-shear magnitudes with southward extent being offset
by stronger instability. The CAPE/shear parameter space will favor
organized storm modes including supercells and bowing structures.
Large to very large hail will likely be the initial hazard, with the
threat for damaging winds and tornadoes increasing as storms move
into WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL, where stronger low-level
shear is forecast.

Additional, isolated to widely scattered storms are anticipated by
late afternoon into evening across portions of the lower MO Valley
into at least eastern KS. While vertical shear will be somewhat
marginal, the strong instability will support strong up/downdrafts
capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds.

A separate, elevated thunderstorm regime may materialize Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions central/eastern NE and
northern KS as low-level warm advection increases ahead of the next
mid-level trough moving into the northern and central Plains. The
strongest storms will be capable of a large-hail threat.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081922
SWODY3
SPC AC 081921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very
large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds with significant gusts
appear likely across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of
large hail and damaging winds are possible into the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low is forecast over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and
northern MT Wednesday morning. One upper shortwave trough associated
with this system will be oriented over the northern High Plains
Wednesday morning, and will spread eastward through the period into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. A second upper shortwave
trough will deepen and develop southeast from the northern Rockies
to the central High Plains by Thursday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will initially be located from eastern
ND toward the central High Plains. The northern portion of this
front will develop east across the Upper Midwest, while the
southwestern extension of the front stalls from the Mid-MO Valley
into the southern High Plains as a surface low deepens over NE/KS
overnight.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley
vicinity...

Remnant convection from the Day 2/Tuesday period may be
ongoing/decaying across parts of the region Wednesday morning.
Furthermore, convective outflow could be positioned somewhere across
the Upper Midwest. As a result, evolution of convection from the Day
2 period will likely have some impact on where corridors of greater
severe potential develop on Wednesday. Regardless, rich boundary
layer moisture will spread across parts of MN/WI/IA/IL as a warm
front retreats northward across the Great Lakes and ahead of the
advancing surface cold front. This will foster strong
destabilization across the region as vertical shear increases with
time. Numerous organized severe thunderstorms, possibly both
supercells and bowing segments, are expected with an accompany
all-hazards severe risk, particularly across parts of MN/WI and
possibly IA into northern IL.

With southwest extent into the Mid/Lower MO Valley, effective shear
magnitudes will decrease. However, a very moist and strongly
unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the stalled surface
boundary across KS to western IA. A dryline will also extend into
the southern High Plains, though boundary layer moisture will also
become more modest with southwest extent. Both of these boundaries
will serve as a focus for a second area of severe thunderstorm
potential during the late afternoon/evening, with both large hail
and damaging gusts possible. Additional severe thunderstorms may
develop overnight as a low-level jet strengthens and overspreads the
stalled surface boundary across KS. Large hail could accompany this
activity later in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 06/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090727
SWODY3
SPC AC 090726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...

A potent short-wave trough initially over the central High Plains
Thursday morning is forecast to accelerate through the upper Great
Lakes with a trailing perturbation moving through the central Plains
into mid MS Valley Thursday night. Both disturbances will be located
on the cyclonic aside of an unseasonably strong mid-level jet with
500-mb wind speeds approaching 70-80 kt. The 00z models have slowed
the progression of the mid-level wave, as well as the associated
surface low, which is forecast to develop from northeast KS along
the synoptic front or remnant outflow from overnight storms into
southern WI by afternoon and northern lower MI or the UP by Thursday
night.


...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great
Lakes...

A very moist boundary layer will combine with steep mid-level lapse
rates to yield a moderate to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon
to the south of the composite surface boundary. A cluster of mainly
elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning
across portions of the mid MO Valley, to the northeast of the
surface low. Those storms are expected to become progressively more surface-based and intense by mid to late morning into afternoon
while rapidly moving northeast, coincident with the surface low.
Forecast sounding within the inflow environment of those storms
indicate strong low-level and deep-layer shear, supportive of
supercells and bowing segments capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging winds.

Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the trailing
front from the lower MO and mid MS Valleys southwest through the
Ozarks into southern Plains. The progressive nature of the mid-level
system suggests the potential for long-tracked supercells and bowing
structures capable of tornadoes and swaths of destructive winds.


...Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast...

While large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to remain
relatively weak, model guidance indicates scattered, afternoon storm development from the lee of the lower Great Lakes through the
central Appalachians to the vicinity of a lee trough in the
Mid-Atlantic. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak;
however, the presence of a moist and moderately unstable air mass
will support wet microburst activity and an associated risk for
sporadic damaging winds.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091920
SWODY3
SPC AC 091919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms capable of potentially strong
tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds appear likely from
portions of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys into the
upper Great Lakes. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and
large hail are possible across the southern Plains, upper Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Synopsis...

A compact but potent upper shortwave trough, characterized by a
60-80 kt 500 mb jet streak, will move across the central Plains and
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Thursday. A strong low-level
jet will likely be oriented across parts of MO/KS/OK Thursday
morning. Some weakening of this feature will occur as it spreads
northeast through the morning, but re-invigoration of the low-level
jet is forecast by mid/late afternoon.

At the surface, low pressure initially over central KS will develop
northeast toward Lake Michigan through 00z, and cross the
international border by 12z Friday. A cold front/composite outflow
from prior convection is expected to be oriented from northern
WI/Upper MI southwestward into northwest OK by midday. The northern
extent of the boundary will progress eastward across much of the
Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley through the period, while the western
extent stalls over OK and the TX Panhandle.

...Upper Great Lakes to Lower MO/Mid-MS and Lower Ohio Valleys...

An MCS may be ongoing in the vicinity of eastern NE/southwest IA
Thursday morning. Ahead of this feature and the aforementioned cold
front, a very moist airmass will remain in place across the Midwest
(upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints). Strong destabilization will be
possible (2500-4500 J/kg). Reintensification or redevelopment of
morning convection is possible as this activity encounters the
instability gradient from eastern IA into northern IL and Lower MI.
Favorable vertical shear profiles will support supercells and bowing
segments capable of significant wind gusts, large hail (with more
discrete convection), and strong tornadoes through the afternoon,
centered on eastern IA, northern IL, far southern WI and perhaps as
far east as southern Lower MI/northern IN.

With time, additional convection will develop along the cold front
from central IL into southwest MO. Very large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity as it spread
east/southeast across the Ozarks and toward the Lower Ohio Valley
through evening.

...Southern Plains...

Convective coverage is a bit more uncertain with southwest extent
into OK/TX. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused further
northeast, but strong instability, rich boundary layer moisture and
steep lapse rates near the sagging cold front and a dryline should
foster at least isolated storm development where capping can be
overcome. Supercells in this environment would pose a risk for
severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...

A weak disturbance is forecast to move through an upper ridge across
the region, resulting in modest enhancement to northwesterly flow
aloft. Strong heating and rich boundary layer moisture will support
moderate destabilization during the afternoon/early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to isolated
severe wind gusts and sporadic wind damage.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100726
SWODY3
SPC AC 100725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and some large
hail are possible across the Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians
Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough over the upper Great Lakes and OH Valley Friday
morning will progress through southwest Ontario to along the St.
Lawrence Valley, with a corridor of height falls and stronger
mid-level winds overspreading the lower Great Lakes into
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will move through the
lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians before merging with lee
troughing east of the northern and central Appalachians.


...Mid-Atlantic into Central Appalachians...

A hot and moist air mass is expected to exist across the pre-frontal
warm sector Friday afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s to
upper 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s. While mid-level
lapse rates are expected to remain modest, the high theta-e boundary
layer will largely contribute to moderate instability. The glancing
influence of the short-wave trough coupled with convergence along
the cold front and lee trough, in addition to terrain influences are
expected to foster scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the
peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

The strongest vertical shear of 30-40 kt is forecast from the lower
OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, where the potential will exist
for some transient supercell and bowing structures capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Vertical shear will be comparatively weaker
along the lee trough; however, both low-level lapse rates and
instability will be greater, supporting potential for damaging
downburst winds and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal that storms will coalesce into multiple clusters by late
afternoon into early evening with a potentially more concentrated
area of damaging winds reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

...Mid-South into the Central and South High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast south of the surface
front, which is expected to stall across the discussion area. In the
absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, the models vary on the
location and coverage of diurnally enhanced storms, which could pose
some severe-weather threat. Severe-weather probabilities may
eventually be added to some of the area once confidence in storm
evolution becomes more clear.

..Mead.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101931
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Evolving clusters of storms may spread from the Allegheny Mountains,
and perhaps Poconos and Catskills, into northern Mid Atlantic coast
Friday afternoon and evening, accompanied by potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that subtropical ridging will be maintained across
much of the southern tier of the U.S. through this period.
Mid-level ridging may also build within the mid-latitudes, offshore
of the Pacific coast, but a largely zonal regime appears likely to
be maintained from the northern Rockies through the lower Great
Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic.

While a secondary surface frontal low, shifting northeast of the
Great Lakes region by 12z Friday, turns north/northwestward and
occludes across the Hudson Bay vicinity by Friday night, the
associated mid-level cyclone may only slowly shift eastward to the south-southwest of Hudson Bay. An increasingly convectively
augmented trailing surface cold front appears likely to advance
southeast of the lower Great Lakes through much of the Mid Atlantic
by 12Z Saturday.

...Allegheny Mountains into western New England/Mid Atlantic...
Models suggest that westerly deep-layer mean wind fields are likely
to remain rather modest through this period, and forcing for ascent
associated with one or two short wave perturbations pivoting around
the periphery of the mid-level low may be glancing with respect to
the evolving surface warm sector. However, guidance generally
suggests that a seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary-layer (surface
dew points near 70F) across the Allegheny Plateau/Mountains into the Adirondacks and Champlain/Hudson Valley vicinity may become
characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg with
insolation. Preceding at least weak mid-level height falls, this
environment is expected to become supportive increasing vigorous
thunderstorm through early/mid Friday afternoon.

Strengthening surface cold pools, perhaps aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric flow on the order of 20-30+ kt, may
contribute to modestly organizing clusters with potential to produce
damaging wind gusts while propagating east of the higher terrain,
toward the northern Mid Atlantic coast, through early Friday
evening.

..Kerr.. 06/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110726
SWODY3
SPC AC 110724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of all hazards
appear possible Saturday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. More isolated
severe weather appears possible across the upper Great Lakes, Ozark
Plateau, and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from the upper MS Valley into northern
Rockies is forecast to amplify while pivoting east/southeast through
the upper Midwest and mid/lower MO Valleys. That system will be
attended by a belt of 50-60+ kt winds in the mid-levels, which are
expected to extend from the mid MO Valley into the Great Lakes
Saturday afternoon into night. At the surface, a cold front
initially from the upper Midwest to low pressure over KS Saturday
morning, will progress through the upper Great Lakes, mid/lower MO
Valleys, and central Plains during the forecast period.


...Upper Great Lakes into Central and Southern Plains...

The potential for early-day storms across portions of the mid MO
Valley into the Ozark Plateau increases uncertainty in the location
of afternoon/evening storms, as well as the distribution of
instability across the region. Latest ensemble guidance indicates
the highest likelihood for moderate to strong instability across
portions of the central and southern Plains with greater spread in
instability farther north across the upper Midwest into upper Great
Lakes.

Current thinking is that diurnally enhanced thunderstorms appear
most likely to the northeast of the KS surface low northeast along
the adjacent segment of the front with lesser confidence in storm
coverage with northeastward extent into the upper Great Lakes.
Deep-layer shear is expected to be sufficiently strong for organized
storm modes, including supercells from the central Plains into the
upper Great Lakes with decreasing amounts of vertical shear into the
southern Plains. Highest confidence in a more concentrated
severe-weather episode remains centered across the central Plains
into the lower MO Valley, where all hazards appear possible. Storms
may eventually grow upscale into one or multiple complexes Saturday
evening into night from the mid MS Valley through Ozark Plateau into
the southern Plains.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111931
SWODY3
SPC AC 111930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER MISSISOURI VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging, offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast through British Columbia, it appears that flow will
begin to veer to an increasing northwesterly component across the
Rockies through Mississippi Valley during this period. Within this
regime, mid-level troughing may sharpen southwest of a lingering
mid-level low centered to the southwest of Hudson Bay, through the
lower Missouri Valley, but this may be comprised of at least a
couple of short wave perturbations, with the details of this
evolution still uncertain.

In lower levels, surges of cooler/drier air will continue to develop
southward through the interior of the U.S., with the general leading
edge reaching the lower Great Lakes through Ohio River, Ozarks
Plateau and Texas South Plains by 12Z Sunday. This may be preceded
by extensive convective development and expanding outflow, to the west-southwest of a weakening initial frontal zone to the lee of the
southern Appalachians.

...Central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley...
Lingering uncertainties, including those due to model spread and the
extended time frame, preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities, at least at this time. However, a consensus of model
output suggests at least conditional potential for the evolution of
an extensive organized convective system, perhaps including one or
two large clusters developing and propagating southeastward across
the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity by late
Saturday afternoon and evening.

In the wake of a weakening preceding front, it appears that
low-level moisture return may contribute to a corridor of large
potential instability, particularly across the central Great Plains
into lower Missouri Valley/Ozark Plateau, to the north of remnant
mid-level subtropical ridging. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air emanating from the southern high plains, low-level
warm advection near the nose of stronger surface heating and deeper boundary-layer mixing may provide the focus for the initiation of
strongest convective development. Guidance suggests that this could
occur anywhere from north central Kansas through the lower Missouri
Valley, before growing upscale and propagating south-southeastward
through Saturday night.

It is possible that this will occur in the presence of initially
modest deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. Some strengthening of
flow is possible across the region in association with the approach
of a digging short wave, but much of the strengthening evident in
the various model output is probably related to the
convection/convective feedback. Given the magnitude of the
potential instability, the evolution of strong descending rear
inflow with the evolving convection appears possible, which may be
accompanied by the risk for widespread severe wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120654
SWODY3
SPC AC 120653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will pivot across the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread much of the
northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from
Ohio to the Mid-South, then westward into north/central TX by
mid/late afternoon. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the front. Pockets of moderate to strong instability will
develop across parts of the southern Plains vicinity as the cold
front develops southward through the period. Additional areas of
moderate to strong destabilization are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic vicinity.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Currently, the best overlap of enhanced west/southwesterly shear and
MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg appears to be across the Mid-Atlantic from
eastern VA into southeast PA/southern NJ within a moist axis and
pre-frontal surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
within this area during peak heating and pose a risk mainly for
damaging gusts. Stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected with
northward extent into PA/NY and portions of New England. However,
degree of destabilization is uncertain due to cloud cover and
possible remnant convection over the Ohio Valley from the Day
2/Saturday period moving across the Upper Ohio Valley early in the
period ahead of the surface cold front. Depending on model trends
and mesoscale details emanating from prior day convection, severe
probability could be adjusted northward in subsequent outlooks.

...Southeast NM into the ArkLaTex...

Convection will develop near the southward-advancing surface front
during the afternoon within a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Convection may tend to be anafrontal, and storms could
quickly become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, isolated strong
gusts and hail will be possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121928
SWODY3
SPC AC 121927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower Great Lakes and
upper Ohio Valley vicinity through much of the northern Mid Atlantic
Sunday.

...Discussion...
Downstream of initially amplified mid-level ridging offshore of the
Pacific coast, models indicate that flow will continue to trend
cyclonic east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, to the
south of a broadening vortex centered near southern Hudson Bay.
Within this regime, it appears that notable short wave troughing
will pivot east of the Upper Midwest through the southeastern
Canadian provinces and Northeast by late Sunday night, accompanied
by cyclogenesis across the lower Great Lakes through St. Lawrence
Valley vicinity. It appears that this may be preceded by the
remnants of an initially fairly notable mesoscale convective vortex,
within strengthening westerly flow across the Allegheny/Cumberland
Plateau through the northern Mid Atlantic by early Sunday evening.

...Northeast...
There remains considerable spread within the latest model output
concerning the extent of convective potential for this period.
Mostly this appears related pre-frontal low-level moisture return
and destabilization across the upper Ohio Valley into the lee of the
lower Great Lakes, which could be slowed or impeded by the influence
of preceding convective outflow. However, guidance generally
suggests that destabilization prior to the arrival of the MCV and
belt of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (30-40+ kt) will
be sufficient to support potential for organized severe convection
east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic by
late Sunday afternoon. More substantive strengthening of mid-level
wind fields and forcing for ascent appear likely to overspread the
pre-frontal environment across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into
the lee of the lower Great Lakes region, where it appears increasing
model output is now suggesting that the evolving warm sector may
become sufficiently unstable to support a risk for organized severe
storm development.

Damaging wind gusts accompanying organizing lines and/or clusters
appear the primary severe hazard, but there also appears at least
some potential for a few tornadoes. It is still possible that
severe weather probabilities will need to be increased further in
later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130635
SWODY3
SPC AC 130634

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the Gulf Coast states to
the Carolinas, and across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies on Monday. Modest deepening of the trough will result in a
belt of increasing northwesterly flow aloft from the northern High
Plains into the Mid-South. At the surface, a cold front will extend
from the southern Mid-Atlantic coast west/southwest across the Gulf
Coast states into central TX. This boundary will sag southward
through the period. Rich boundary layer moisture will be in place
ahead of the boundary, but this region will remain displaced to the
south of strong mid/upper level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible, and some gusty winds could occur. However, organized
severe potential appears limited.

Further north across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, scant
boundary layer moisture is forecast. Weak destabilization is
possible via cooling aloft/steepening lapse rates. This could be
sufficient for isolated, higher-based thunderstorms. Gusty winds and
maybe small hail could occur, but overall severe potential appears
low.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131932
SWODY3
SPC AC 131931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.

... Synopsis ...

Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of
the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the
eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the
north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.

At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern
Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the
Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the
aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.


... Southern Rockies into the Texas panhandle ...

Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some
potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS
capable of producing isolated damaging winds.


... Northern Gulf Coast States ...

Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the
sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass
should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well
south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential
should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water
values and the number of storms across the region may support an
isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less
than 5%.


... Northern Plains ...

Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area,
strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum
moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support
isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be
possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain
fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 06/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131942
SWODY3
SPC AC 131941

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED FOR CAPITALIZATION OF PANHANDLE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.

... Synopsis ...

Broad mid-level troughing will persist across the eastern half of
the US on Monday, downstream of a broad mid-level ridge across the
eastern Pacific. A short-wave trough will dive southeast into the
north-central US, embedded within the larger-scale northwest flow.

At the surface, a remnant front will be draped across the northern
Gulf Coast states, stretching from the southern Rockies east to the
Atlantic. Farther north, a second cold front associated with the
aforementioned north-central short-wave trough will push southeast
into the central Plains and Upper Midwest.


... Southern Rockies into the Texas Panhandle ...

Weak low-level upslope beneath northwesterly mid-level flow will
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across the
higher terrain of the southern Rockies. CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
and effective-layer shear around 30 knots will support some
potential for thunderstorms organizing into a southeast-moving MCS
capable of producing isolated damaging winds.


... Northern Gulf Coast States ...

Rich boundary layer moisture will be present south of the
sagging/stationary frontal boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass
should support thunderstorm development. This area will be well
south of the better mid-level flow thus organized severe potential
should remain fairly limited. That said, high precipitable water
values and the number of storms across the region may support an
isolated damaging wind gust. Overall coverage looks to remain less
than 5%.


... Northern/Central Plains ...

Although low-level moisture will be quite scant across the area,
strong mid-upper-level forcing associated with the vorticity maximum
moving across the area along with steepening lapse rates may support
isolated high-based thunderstorm development. Gusty winds would be
possible with any intense updraft, although this should remain
fairly isolated and at this time does not warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 06/13/2026

$$

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