ACUS11 KWNS 092031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092031=20
NEZ000-COZ000-092200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of far northeast Colorado into western
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092031Z - 092200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail should gradually
increase as developing storms move off of the higher terrain and
ingest greater moisture/buoyancy. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may
eventually be issued.

DISCUSSION...NLDN lightning data and visible satellite depict an
ongoing thunderstorm across far northeast CO, with hints at CU tops
breaching a cirrus cloud deck. A mid-level longwave trough is
beginning to overspread the High Plains as surface temperatures
reach the 85-90 F range, indicating adequate lift to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development. Dewpoints are approaching
the mid to upper 60s F in western NE, with MLCAPE ranging from
1000-3000 J/kg, progressing from far northeast CO into western NE.
The well-mixed boundary layer in place may support severe storms
given 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and 8.5+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates aloft. Any storms that develop will accompanied by a
threat for severe wind and hail. Since the storms will likely
develop west of the moisture axis, it is unclear when storms will
experience an appreciable uptick in intensity. Nonetheless, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may eventually be needed.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7D6gFPNqpoaEisNqeYyv8e9pZ_ml4vK0x3-kyMubVcFKfzAJu73bclboVNOnCOHuiKMYaV_nC= dOFSAUXllYkvU46V8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40010245 40400301 40910332 41680338 42190312 42490246
42570184 42470123 42100083 41620054 41080043 40550054
40280080 40030130 40010245=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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