ACUS11 KWNS 100142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100141=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-100315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 100141Z - 100315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to extend downstream of WW294.
Thunderstorms with potential for damaging wind and tornadoes will
move eastward through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the front in
the central Dakotas. This activity has been producing wind gusts
60-70+ mph. The mode is becoming linearly forced along the front,
given deep layer shear vectors parallel to the front. This will
likely remain the case through the evening, with surface objective
analysis and recent 00z soundings from ABR and BIS indicating steep
low level lapse rates and large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg amid
temperatures in the 80s-90s F.

The low-level jet is expected to increase through the evening as the
surface low across North Dakota deepens and shifts northward into
Canada. This will support an increase in south to southeasterly
low-level flow which will enlarge hodographs and enhance low-level
SRH. This will promote potential for line embedded vorticies and a
couple of tornadoes into the evening/overnight.

A new watch will likely be needed downstream of WW294 soon.

..Thornton/Smith.. 06/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9XqaT40C5YZB0Glef56vhNCF4hh-FkurYB0vY-4sVAZgMiFu_g41H5TrNKlx17yz0raWGHvh6= t5jIIJQxAZgSjJ_718$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 47839956 48849912 49039747 48749632 47489534 44679549
44509652 44449765 44609853 47839956=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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