ACUS11 KWNS 102058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102058=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Areas affected...west-central Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northeastern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 102058Z - 102300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe mesoscale convective system is surging eastward
over Lake Michigan toward central and southern MI. Watch issuance is
likely in order to address the associated severe-wind threat.

DISCUSSION...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) has
developed and is surging eastward over Lake Michigan as of 2040z.
Several strong-to-severe wind gusts have been reported in the last
couple of hours, including an 82-kt gust at 2017z in Oshkosh, WI.
The meridional portion of the line -- oriented orthogonal to
30-40-kt bulk shear vectors -- is expected to continue producing strong-to-severe wind gusts as it crosses Lake Michigan. Downstream
of the lake, the environment in south-central MI (south of a warm
front draped through the central part of the state) is characterized
by very large MLCAPE (3000+ J/kg) and westerly bulk shear around 30
kts. The general expectation is for the associated mid-level impulse
to persist eastward and support MCS maintenance into MI. Some
uncertainty exists as to the eastward extent of the threat in MI,
possibly due to inflow contamination from convection developing
across central MI. MCS intensity will eventually wane after peak
diurnal heating. However, confidence is relatively high in the
short-term severe-wind threat continuing into MI, and a watch is
likely warranted.

..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ssiD-l-BqQhfv5o5hpZDMnibowp48Msmnd7bSfv8tLW_nt4JpGqxxsN2cHo0i7rAvFmavjC8= OnDZJJFumsyyZAhU5g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...
MKX...

LAT...LON 44058790 44668619 44488459 43638396 41758414 40388555
40378783 40818872 41908802 42838800 44058790=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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