ACUS11 KWNS 111819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111818=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas...western Missouri...and
northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 111818Z - 112015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon along a cold front in southeastern Kansas, western
Missouri, and Oklahoma. Severe wind gusts and some large hail will
be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...A cold front -- currently draped southwestward from
central IA through northwestern OK -- is expected to serve as a
focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. As the attendant
1002-mb surface low slides northeastward through IA, the cold front
will continue pushing southeastward and impinge on a destabilizing
warm sector. Per current mesoanalysis and water vapor imagery, a
mid-level jet core is currently located over eastern NE and western
IA, placing the warm sector in the right-entrance quadrant of the
jet. Associated quasi-geostrophic ascent aided by frontal
convergence should promote extensive thunderstorm development this
afternoon across the area.

Visible satellite imagery suggests that any remaining convective
inhibition is waning, driven by temperatures warming into the upper
80s / low 90s F ahead of the front. Some deeper updraft cores are
already evident in northwestern MO, and vertical development is
expected to continue southwestward along the front with time. Large
CAPE (3000+ J/kg), minimal inhibition, and predominantly
line-parallel bulk shear should yield relatively quick upscale
growth. Strong wind gusts and hail are the primary threats with this
activity. Shear profiles are slightly larger and more
line-perpendicular with latitude, so more persistent discrete structures/supercells may be possible in eastern KS and western MO.
Some tornado threat exists in this area, particularly around mid-/late-afternoon as low-level SRH increases, but it will be
generally tempered by upscale tendencies. One or more watches will
likely be needed to cover these threats.

..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xaXb7l4oKCXnZUQHZWEs_zLhHvMQmqGG4l2a43q30S7NuDfzW6TvgZ8bjORIYHBh2bWuK1Kj= hNUSTFlE-VqWYKtXXE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36459451 34979632 34259817 34269915 34759950 35569917
36509764 37719591 38629502 39559382 39599310 39199265
38549256 38019286 36459451=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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