ACUS11 KWNS 121749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121748=20
NYZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121748Z - 121945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms and a risk of occasional
damaging wind gusts are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorm development across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast along a surface cold front and prefrontal trough. This
activity is occurring as weak mid-level height falls begin to
overspread the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough
progressing across the Great Lakes region. While mid-level lapse
rates will remain weak, strong surface heating and dewpoints around
70 F will support 1000 to locally 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating
this afternoon as convection evolves eastward. While stronger
deep-layer flow will remain displaced to the north, modest mid-level
westerlies of 25-35 kts and steepening low-level lapse rates will
promote the potential for multicell clusters capable of occasional
damaging wind gusts. Currently, the greatest potential appears
likely to manifest across southeastern New York and adjacent areas
where the best overlap of modestly stronger mid-level flow and
greater buoyancy may develop.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for portions of the
discussion area within the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats.
More uncertainty exists regarding watch issuance farther south into southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey where latest
guidance indicates a relative minimum in convective coverage could
occur.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NShvHXq0LOAXsWdI6hoMkqBpB4h3Z1a2Jxywosj5KYxM-fC-gWIqZR4qvpxC2BHzutDw1F0O= LBnqoKL8khcL8kxuX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40857626 41097631 41407632 41697625 42197594 42587567
43237521 43677461 43787433 43837408 43807371 43757340
43567300 43327268 43107249 42797235 42377244 41577291
40757347 40357380 40207409 40157449 40177490 40257543
40417580 40647607 40857626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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