ACUS11 KWNS 122048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122048=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia...Virginia...Maryland

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 122048Z - 122245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms producing locally damaging gusts may increase in
coverage over the next several hours with continued wind potential
over much of Virginia and parts of Maryland.

DISCUSSION...Two primary areas of thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon. One is over northern VA within the surface trough, and
another extends from southeast WV into northeast TN related to the
residual pre-frontal outflow boundary.

Substantial moisture and instability have developed into the region
with daytime heating. Not only are low-level lapse rates steep, but
GPS PWAT sensors over northern VA have shown a gradual increase in
moisture as well. The RLX 18Z sounding as well as LWX and RLX VWPs
show mean midlevel westerlies of 20-30 kt, which supports
southeastward-moving clusters of storms. The warm and uncapped air
mass along with ample PWAT and favorable surface lapse rates will
support corridors of strong to severe gusts through early evening.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46wEISHN8_Bq81PVLN3Af6g1DXLRX5n5dHxBUXjMss6L7dB_J6rpcP_i_0hWZXpsawDRr8Cep= SOkM3bdzVb1betJIgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37587626 37267708 36587816 36758066 36838152 37138169
37308142 37828085 38428019 39297928 39387884 39237785
39037703 38817668 38337603 37587626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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