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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1117

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 13 08:30:48 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 130830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130830=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-131100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130830Z - 131100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail is expected to develop across
    parts of central and eastern Nebraska over the next couple of hours.
    Weather watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
    imagery over the central High Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis
    of maximized low-level moisture is analyzed diagonally across Kansas
    from southeast to northwest. The RAP has MUCAPE along and to the
    north of this axis in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. As the trough
    moves into the central Plains over the next few hours, the
    instability max currently over far northern Kansas will shift
    northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska, where scattered
    thunderstorms are expected to initiate. RAP forecast soundings near
    the instability max have a capping inversion in the low-levels, with
    effective shear near 45 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8
    C/km. This environment will support a large hail threat with
    elevated supercells that develop early this morning. If a supercell
    can become dominant, then hailstones over 2 inches in diameter will
    be possible.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/13/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7h5ZlyUC3cE7QGX9jhI8edWM09sk96FCgDaKh8eGjahvjYR5KTRCETWrSjfEp7ZrEBQp8NjNv= rLYsUP5S4smTvhin6g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42239846 42059925 41759968 41199981 40789975 40589951
    40539915 40559849 40619761 40749647 41049608 41449601
    41889609 42189628 42409664 42439707 42379750 42239846=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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