ACUS11 KWNS 282127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282127
MNZ000-IAZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and northern Iowa into
southeastern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282127Z - 282300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe wind and hail will
accompany intensifying thunderstorms over central into northern IA.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has recently initiated
immediately ahead of a surface pressure trough. Ahead of these
storms, surface temperatures have warmed well into the 70s F, with
at least upper 50s F dewpoints noted. With 7+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates noted (per latest forecast soundings), MUCAPE has exceeded
1000 J/kg well out ahead of the storms. Furthermore, these storms
are progressing toward the core of a 40+ kt LLJ, supporting over 35
kts of effective bulk shear and enlarged/curved low-level hodographs
(per regional VADs). This kinematic and thermodynamic environment
would support supercells capable of at least a severe wind/hail
threat. However, some MLCINH remains, so some questions remain how
widespread severe will become. Nonetheless, at least isolated
instance of severe gusts/hail and perhaps a tornado are possible
this evening.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-UVLM8fX_GSe-b-r1CgA4v1nmMdni6YSu-rsBRsrEQdsW8A1FCfPtTFTxCtzTfvGpgO6vbekQ30niZQf3ZibsoWX6-Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42099443 43329396 43919365 44219311 44219238 43909196
43519185 42939201 42499231 42209272 42019318 41899367
41889415 42099443

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)