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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2415

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 28 22:25:50 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 282225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282225
    WIZ000-MNZ000-282330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2415
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Minnesota into western
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 698...

    Valid 282225Z - 282330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for at least severe hail will continue over the
    next few hours. The best severe threat, including the chance for a
    tornado, will be with an ongoing supercell over southeastern MN.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms, including those with a
    history of severe hail, continues ahead of a surface low. The
    majority of hail reports and MRMS mosaic MESH signatures have been
    with storms north of the warm front, where forcing for ascent has
    been maximized amid elevated buoyancy. Over the last couple of
    hours, thunderstorms have also intensified well ahead of the cold
    front, along a surface trough, including a supercell over
    southeastern MN. MRMS MESH indicates that 1-2 inch diameter hail may
    be falling from this storm. Furthermore, while this supercell is
    traversing the eastern edge of surface-based buoyancy and is merging
    into a linear cluster, it is also approaching the warm front, where
    effective SRH may be maximized (i.e. 300+ m2/s2 per latest
    mesoanalysis). As such, the best chance for severe hazards
    (including a tornado) would probably be associated with this storm
    in the near term.

    ..Squitieri.. 10/28/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TUrUCuC6S2y1njOXzddI9p0rgxFDUuk7i0-w1Sommkoolyw9CxdQy1RDjPOTksfVT7t9vRwNSTMXVviD6nf8lGs2EI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45759347 46079219 46209124 45979076 45299068 44659090
    44409168 44409257 44489308 44739347 45759347

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)