ACUS11 KWNS 282304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282304
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska into southwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282304Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may produce a few instances of large
hail and damaging wind this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing near the
eastward advancing cold front across portions of western Iowa into
far southeastern Nebraska. The 18z RAOB from OAX shows a warm nose
around 850 mb. More recent analysis from SPC Mesoanalysis continues
to show MLCIN is present ahead of the front into portions of central
Iowa. This mid-level warm layer/CIN and generally weak
convergence/weak upper level forcing is likely what has made
sustaining storms difficult.

Nonetheless, a couple of cells have developed northeast of Omaha.
The environment ahead of the front is characterized by moderate
instability, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient deep
layer shear to support supercells. Should this cell or additional
cells persist, they may pose some isolated potential for large hail
and damaging wind. Overall, this threat appears to remain fairly
isolated given the weaker forcing/MLCIN.

..Halbert-E/Guyer.. 10/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9j3EKTBbC3wNWAVSuMUzK1Xb0QRoff5VUP1fNSKN155jGD0tLR0UZbRwhZw9vxuneQxE2JNR9rdRH2jZvFXNWoYBRyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40939648 42029553 42619467 42649379 42379351 41919348
40799454 40099585 40459670 40459670 40939648

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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