ACUS11 KWNS 292348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292348
TXZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas affected...portions of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 292348Z - 300045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two remain possible over the next
couple of hours with low-topped supercells.

DISCUSSION...A few transient, low-topped supercells have exhibited
some low-level rotation over the past hour or so, with one storm
accompanied by a TDS and another with a funnel cloud/possible
tornado sighting. These storms are progressing to the west-northwest
within a broader low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime.
Overall buoyancy and vertical wind shear are quite mediocre per
latest mesoanalysis. However, EWX and DFX VAD profiles show
low-level hodographs with appreciable curvature. Given that a south-southeasterly low-level jet will only increase in magnitude
this evening, low-level shear should remain favorable for additional
organized updrafts to become low-topped supercells, perhaps
accompanied by a brief tornado threat before the boundary layer
decouples later this evening. Nonetheless, any tornado threat that
persists into the evening should be quite brief and/or localized.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!667Apjc8VeFWV0fUpXskrIDuevnDej_RAX9SmtkKtIP--fimoYar9Ui6JAIxt20Q23bVfovn-9u9wJ7zG9DWmB_A0KE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29310117 29830109 30020063 29799982 29319927 28829915
28509929 28359955 28319983 28350006 28640051 28930068
29310117

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
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