AWUS01 KWNH 140347
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0102
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Areas affected...southern WI into central/northern Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140344Z - 140800Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from southern WI
into central/northern Lower MI over the next 4-5 hours. Saturated
to nearly saturated soils are expected to be a contributing factor
to excess runoff from rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.

Discussion...0320Z radar imagery across the Upper Midwest showed
an MCS with an elongated convective line on its southern flank,
oriented west-east from the MN/WI/IA tri-state region into
northwestern Lower MI. The cluster of thunderstorms were located
along a quasi-stationary front that extended west to east through
central WI/MI with 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over northeastern
IA, lowest over Lower MI) estimated just south of the boundary per
03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Infrared imagery showed cloud tops
continued to cool with divergence aloft aided within the
right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt upper level jet streak
positioned over Lake Superior into southern Quebec. 850 mb VAD
wind data showed 50-60 kt of SSW flow from eastern IA into
northern IL and southern WI, aiding rapid moisture transport
across Lake Michigan into Lower MI with upstream moisture over the
Midwest between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.

As the main surface low along the front in northwestern IA
advances ENE tonight, continued southerly flow ahead of the low
into the ongoing complex of storms should sustain convection
within the unstable airmass for several more hours. Mean cell
motions from the W to SW will interact with the southerly low
level inflow allowing for segments of the line to advance
southeastward at times. Cell mergers and training within the
linear segments of the MCS will attain rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
at times with an overall movement toward the east through 08Z.
Most soils across the region are saturated due to snowmelt and/or
recent rainfall, with additional heavy rainfall more quickly
translating into runoff compared to average. Therefore, areas of
flash flooding are likely to occur across southern WI into Lower
MI over the next 4-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7L1O-mnGFqvdnGQKawceVca5wKPKEE_53aZyZ3QByeXtRcHpH_iNlJdj0PPvcB--9qxe= 996tFkVy9okNckkMMmvxAfw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45818459 45288327 44528305 43748367 42798585=20
42498773 42528950 42719070 43409120 44019101=20
44319034 44578902 45028737 45468637=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141802
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern and Eastern
IL...Western and Central IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms coupled with locally wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions will foster an isolated to scattered threat for flash
flooding going through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows stronger diurnal heating promoting a steady destabilization
of the boundary layer across eastern IA, western IL and nosing
into southwest WI. This airmass is pooling south and east of a
quasi-stationary front as multiple waves of low pressure advance
along it.

Some modest CINH remains in place across these areas, but MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place, and this is
being supported by steep mid-level lapse rates transiting the
Midwest. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows a modest mid-level
shortwave impulse ejecting northeastward across central and
eastern IA down through northern MO and into western IL. This
energy coupled with additional solar insolation should erode the
remaining CAP across the region and set the stage for convective
initiation. Much of this should be focused in close proximity to a leftover/diffuse outflow boundary from the early-day convection.

As convection grows upscale, there will gradually be concerns for
a few cell-mergers and some cell-training. A combination of
multicells and supercells will be likely given the strong
instability in conjunction with strong shear (effective bulk shear
approaching 50 kts). The larger scale environment is also
increasingly moist with aid from a southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. Deeper layer southwesterly moisture transport is noted
aloft too with elevated CIRA-LVT magnitudes.

Locally significant model disagreement is noted through this
evening with the placement of the convection and its general
evolution, but a multi-model consensus suggests eastern IA,
northern IL and southern WI seeing one focus for convection, with
areas of central/eastern IL and into western IN seeing a second
focus.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour,
with some localized totals by early this evening of 2 to 4 inches.
The antecedent conditions are locally quite sensitive, and
especially from eastern IA through northern IL and southern WI.
Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible as
a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rVoRhS9MtZ95Sj6aCH05vO57EMIhqP-DU7yZfIuOyX3spDEUeEb69FAjBiqp3DRaLHv= v5fBXogv1SsUKymmwi2Cj7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43969015 43808891 43378810 42458766 41648679=20
41038574 40368523 39538567 39238682 39538845=20
40048943 41199043 41619249 41909331 42369330=20
42689297 43329238 43909121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-150402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of western North Texas and the
southeastern Texas Plains into southern and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142202Z - 150402Z

Summary...Ongoing convective evolution suggests an increasing
flash flood threat for areas near Vernon, Lawton, and eventually
toward the I-35 corridor in central Oklahoma through 04Z/11p
Central.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection continues to increase in
coverage across western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.=20
Recent surface obs indicate subtle veering of flow west of a
dryline across the Texas South Plains, and objective
analyses/satellite suggest subtle vort maxima riding atop the
dryline and over a warm, unstable airmass over the discussion
area. These trends suggest continued expansion of convective
coverage across the discussion area over the next few hours
(especially as the low-level jet ramps up), with areas of training
and mergers expected to foster spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates
especially near the Red River.

Antecedent conditions are a somewhat moist across the region from
prior heavy-rain events over the past week. Sensitive terrain and
urbanized areas (near Lawton in particular) could also experience
a higher runoff risk. The overall focus for flash flooding should
revolve around sensitive spots and locations of cell mergers -
with background/mean flow fields (around 35-45 knots) suggestive
that prolonged heavier rainfall (and >1.5 inch/hr rates/local FFG)
may not occur on a widespread basis.

Flash flooding is possible with this regime initially over
southwestern OK and western north Texas, with the risk spreading
northeastward toward I-35 in Oklahoma later tonight.

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VoGB_M1a_9ytYeE6UWe8iLQ051eCBJO1BKLKOA725_8XkZLNT0flAJJgr3NBTOQttOi= 3Q_C8zlaihqgqTHhLhv-AsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35969737 35969640 34589601 33539662 33169844=20
32870002 32960060 33570089 34530062 35180008=20
35599891=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 142357
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-150556-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of Wisconsin and Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142356Z - 150556Z

Summary...Deep convection will continue to produce heavy rainfall
while migrating eastward through Wisconsin, across Lake Michigan,
and eventually into Lower Michigan. Flash flooding is likely
given ongoing impacts and local sensitivities in the region.

Discussion...Deep convection has evolved as expected from the
Mississippi River eastward across much of Wisconsin and
northeastern Iowa. Favorable interactions with a warm frontal
zone and steep lapse rates aloft have enabled intense updrafts and
embedded mesocyclones to occasionally merge and produce spots of 2
inches/hr of rainfall at times. Areas of flash flooding are
possible in the short term.

Of particular concern is the potential for storms to expand
northeastward and eastward in coverage. The position of warm
frontal zone over central Wisconsin and cooler Lake Michigan
waters may weaken convection as storms move atop slightly
cooler/stable low-level air, although very steep lapse rates aloft
downstream should maintain convection as it migrates toward areas
that have experienced 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past 3 days,
with ongoing impacts to local watersheds in the area. FFGs fall
to below 1 inch/hr in a few downstream areas, highlighting the
sensitivity of the ground conditions there. Approaching heavy
rainfall may worsen ongoing recovery efforts and perhaps cause new
instances of flash flooding to occur.

Peak flash flood potential will spread into northeastern Wisconsin
in the 00-04Z timeframe and eventually spread into Lower Michigan
generally from 02Z onward.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kgjJfhxvhUeO4YT74P3s8DQ6l_xpQ24IGlUfxoboD8Y2QG0QSY5486_Dp46h_RYXL9-= Huhx9HqLAuI5qFzRolT1pZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DTX...DVN...GRB...GRR...IWX...LOT...
MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45408569 45298379 44028325 42218366 41788510=20
41898733 42518836 42508976 43319091 44929033=20
45348892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150024
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-150623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Areas affected...eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150023Z - 150623Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to not only persist, but
train and repeat over areas very near the WI/IL border vicinity
over the next several hours. Flash flooding is likely, and
significant impacts cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature convective
complex with embedded linear structures and mesocyclones extending
from south-central WI (near Madison) southwestward to near Dubuque
and Cedar Rapids. Other convection was anchored/backbuilding near
a warm front close to and just north of Milwaukee. Each of these
convective clusters were producing expanding cold pools that were
progressively orienting perpendicular to increasing southwesterly
low-level flow, with 45kts now noted on mesoanalyses at 850mb
across much of IA/IL. Latest indications are that these
convective clusters will continue to backbuild and train owing to
convergence along strengthening outflows and strong upstream
buoyancy (~3000 J/kg MLCAPE).=20

The scenario is beginning to favor multiple hours of repeating
convection (1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates) very close to where ongoing
convection exists currently. Localized 3-5 inch rainfall totals
are possible over the next 6 hours. This could result in
significant flash flood potential as FFG thresholds across the
area are only at around 1 inch/hr and will be readily exceeded.=20
This potential will likely exist through 06Z/1a central, with
populated areas near Madison, Milwaukee, Rockford, and perhaps
Chicago potentially experiencing impacts.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_RimPN4452Lz3CSs_IelT7ml5jPYxQHeJmRoaCJABg12dpxpwKNOMVjDMdImE2PL8K-g= NjzLo2BW4jUzEE5JhCUattE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43498958 43368824 42998765 41958741 41538758=20
41248859 41319028 41369158 41559227 41839253=20
42249259 43009239 43179125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150528
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-151020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL/southeastern WI to southern
MI/northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150526Z - 151020Z

SUMMARY...Scattered flash flooding will be possible in the
vicinity of the eastern IL/WI border, eastward to southern Lower
MI, northern IN and northwestern OH. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher) are expected along with peak additional rainfall
totals of 2-3 inches through 10Z

DISCUSSION...05Z radar imagery depicted a trailing stratiform MCS
moving across Lower MI with the leading edge pressing
southeastward across southern MI into northern IN. An outflow
boundary was analyzed ahead of the convective line from
southeastern MI into northern IN/IL with upstream thunderstorm
development occurring north of the western portion of the boundary
along the WI/IL border. 925-850 mb winds were from the SW at 45-55
kt to the south of the boundary over north-central IL and
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extended from the MI/IN border back west to
the MS River, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

The leading edge of the MCS is expected to continue tracking
toward the ESE across southeastern MI into northern IN and
northwestern OH over the next 1 to 2 hours, but back to the west,
continued convective development is likely as moist, low level
flow overruns the slow moving western portion of the rain-cooled
outflow. Mean cell motions are generally from the west which will
setup a favorable pattern for training from west to east given
alignment with the low level boundary. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr are likely (locally higher possible), and an additional 2 to
3 inches of rain is expected through 10Z where cell training is
maximized. Flash flood guidance is less than 2 inches in 3 hours
for some locations, especially across northern IL/southern WI
where heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has contributed to
reduced soil infiltration.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gUZnv0Qxp7R8HWlZNMdEUOjnXzvwcsKhaQiAxAI-iAuF1r4A3I0uJ-ZiXaLC7iOJvba= 8vQFf0NVtX6daqnhMsw5PxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43668276 43568226 43138209 42448225 41578312=20
41298455 41268640 41468819 41788922 42428939=20
42908878 42848652 42988484 43578350=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152148
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160246-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152146Z - 160246Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will migrate eastward across wet/sensitive
areas from yesterday's rainfall especially across Wisconsin.=20
Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
frontal boundary from just north of Dubuque to Des Moines. The
storms are exhibiting linear organization so far in their
evolution, with forward propagation and 40-50 kt speeds generally
limiting their rainfall potential to around 1 inch/hr or less.=20
Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis in the short term.

Over the next 1-4 hours, however, storms will migrate eastward
along a remnant outflow/frontal boundary extending east-west
across southern Wisconsin (generally from Sheboygan to Wisconsin
Dells). As low-level flow increases over Illinois, convergence
along this boundary could result in additional convection
developing in southern/southeastern Wisconsin out ahead of the
ongoing quasi-linear complex. This will increase potential for training/mergers and prolonged rainfall rates in areas that have
already experienced 1-4 inches of rainfall yesterday near/north
and west of Milwaukee and across far northern Illinois. FFGs are
less than 1 inch/hr in some spots and could readily be exceeded
where mergers take place. Flash flooding is likely - especially
in sensitive areas that received rainfall/runoff issues late
yesterday and early today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5opxEbcOifoi00puOb7C5zg01c-pm_jWC9NSJEfq1mEfdNRUZ1jcte1ysb-WmCRTq14u= t29w5aSU3WiQJFXPtvtydIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44558947 44408783 43208786 42008773 41548866=20
41449051 42319153 43979095=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152301
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...much of Missouri, a small part of southeastern
Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152259Z - 160459Z

Summary...Deep convection is organizing into clusters/segments
with localized training. Localized flash flooding is possible
especially in low-spots and sensitive areas.

Discussion...Convection continues to mature along and east of a
dryline extending from near Kansas City south-southwestward to
near Bartlesville and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The storms are in
a very moist, unstable airmass (with 2000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) supporting locally heavy rainfall at times despite
appreciable storm motions of around 30-40 knots.

The storms are in an environment with modest forcing for ascent
due to the slow movement of the dryline, with an approaching
vort-max over Nebraska and confluence ahead of the dryline helping
to deepen and expand convective coverage. Because storms aren't
strictly confined to the dryline, a few areas of training have
been noted (especially across far southwestern Missouri near
Joplin). These trends should continue for several more hours as
evidence of any distinct upscale growth into forward-propagating
linear segments (that would effectively reduce rain rates) is
currently unclear.

Localized training/repeating is likely to result in spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times on a localized basis. These rain
rates will threaten local FFG thresholds, with local sensitivities
also contributing to a potential flash flood risk. This risk will
persist for several hours this evening - perhaps through 03-04Z
tonight.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4QBPUYiOvvcrSPYpuhtkEviwBvLAooHGfmdwrtbeqZBMskhBe_do-t8cvF3LxHUIUCMe= m9tMCSe9Cl1O5RzzcsdF2es$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40509182 39399086 37999060 37039114 36699282=20
36749448 37119532 38149503 39479452 40199364=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160012
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-160609-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Oklahoma, far north Texas,
far western Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160009Z - 160609Z

Summary...An axis of training convection has materialized from
near Wichita Falls through Ardmore to near McAlister. This heavy
rain axis should translate east-northeastward over the next few
hours, with flash flooding possible especially across southern
Oklahoma.

Discussion...Initial scattered convection has recently aligned
into a focused, training axis of cells along the Red River Valley
this evening. The storms are in a weakly forced environment, with
forcing for ascent resulting from the glancing influence of a
mid-level wave over Nebraska and weakly confluent low-level flow
across the region. The orientation of cells parallel to mean flow
aloft - combined with their gradual maturity and establishment of
cold pools - suggests that training convection will continue to be
an issue for at least a few hours. This training band of
convection will gradually translate east-northeastward into more
of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far western Arkansas through the
overnight hours. A secondary training band of convection
near/north of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex may also materialize
over the next couple hours.

Ground conditions are relatively dry in many areas, with hourly
FFG thresholds exceeding 2-2.5 inches in spots. This suggests
isolated flash flood potential across the region - mainly tied to
low spots and/or urban areas. Persistence of training, however
(as evidenced by 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates near Ardmore) suggests
that appreciable impacts may occur where rainfall is heaviest and
most persistent. This isolated flash flood threat should persist
for several hours - perhaps through 06Z/1a central.

Cook=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!94K4h8YfYfUxaStsHe_mwQL2Cg4STxUAwOgtVe0vJgX8kBrY3h64uUeSF04aU6SgfTz9= sW5g0eOrXgiqZql0yM0HAKo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35899509 35869426 34929421 33509505 33079635=20
32859832 34239831 35069740=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160234
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Northern IL...Far Southeast WI...Southern L.P. of
MI...Far Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160235Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Potential for localized flash flooding continues through
the early overnight period; though coverage should become more
scattered with loss of heating/rainfall intensity. Rates of
1.5-1.75"/hr and spots of 2-3" remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR depicts a mature MCV across central
Lake Michigan just east of Milwaukee progressing toward
Holland/Muskegon, MI with a trailing QLCS convective line
extending across SE WI into the NW Exurbs of Chicago along W I-88
in N IL toward the Quad Cities. The cold pool appears to be
maturing as well, increasing forward propagation of the line
particularly through the middle, toward the WI/IL line, this is
reducing overall residency time for extreme rainfall totals, but
the short-term heavy bursts may still result in 1-1.5" in 30 to 60
minutes. Given recent heavy rainfall and saturated upper soil
profiles and proximity to hydrophobic urban conditions near
Chicago will result in increased run-off and likely incidents of
localized flash flooding/rapid rise flood, especially in the next
few hours.

GOES-WV shows expanding divergence region along the entrance of a
100 kt 3H speed max across the LP of MI at this time, helping to
maintain the MCV crossing the more stable air of Lake Michigan but
solid southwesterly warm-air advection is allowing for downstream
convergence with limited but sufficient MUCAPE of 500-750 J/kg.=20
VWP shows solid 850-700 40-45kt flow at the western nose of the
deep layer moisture axis where overall PW totals are increasing to
over 1.25". This will likely continue to support 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and given the record wet spring across the SW LP; FFGs are
compromised in spots and while typically sandy and able to absorb
these rates and totals up to 2-3", saturation over 75% to 85% will
still quickly be overwhelmed with above normal run off and
potential for localized flash flooding conditions. However,
proximity to the unstable air will be increasing (along with
overall diurnal loss) and overall intensity of thunderstorms will
be steadily increasing through the night reducing overall coverage
and magnitude of flooding potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4LPc5RRJ7D_EWUR-GQyFYstxacfepZIrau-Gq7EetmrgliaA_S5VAKvEdlNZqw0hlovq= memycrUKXrRQJ4-THjJqulI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...DVN...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43868583 43758458 43508280 42468379 41648587=20
41268769 41238976 41499024 42108976 42648902=20
42968835 43578710=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160311
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois...East-Central/Southeast
Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160800Z

SUMMARY...Mature MCV continues to provide solid WAA ascent coupled
with nose of enhanced deep layer moisture likely to support
efficient rainfall production with rates of 1.5-1.75" and streaks
of 2-3" totals resulting in possible incident(s) of localized
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR suite depicts a maturing MCV just
southwest of metro St. Louis lifting northeastward at this time.=20
GOES-E WV and RADAR show a broadening mid-level baroclinic
leaf/shield indicative of continued favorable evacuation aloft to
maintain the MCS for the next few hours. VWP and RAP analysis
denote the broad divergence is supporting strengthening low level
flow with solid confluence at the nose of the deeper layer
moisture axis. CIRA LPW shows corridor of 850-500mb moisture is
aligned ideally with the southwesterly flow but sfc to 850mb
moisture is very broad and increasing to support TPW value in
excess of 1.5". The 30-35kts of 850-700mb confluent flow in this
moisture regime will support 1.5-1.75" rainfall production even
with reducing/narrowing unstable axis (generally 500-750 J/kg of
MUCAPEs). The MCV is also providing a corralling of downstream
flow into a well defined deformation axis that is generally
parallel to the deeper layer steering. This orientation will be
the supportive requirement for increased duration to support
localized steaks of 2-3" totals.

Unlike further north, the ground conditions are much drier due to
the prolonged drought. Yet, FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 2-3"/3hr
are in the realm of exceedance and while not all locations will be
exceeded there should be a few areas that may lead to localized
flash flooding conditions through the early overnight period. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible across central IL back
through east-central MO; with slightly higher potential in the
urban areas near Metro St. Louis, due to hydrophobic grounds and
drainage.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WoxM95G8ExX39lGSpA8s-H7qn-FUCdGbkYh4vn_8BhypuFWDWSIc__7RJp008JX_uhC= d3_AwawJzGwp-3qEB59Qe3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40338843 39928763 39148773 38638840 37699014=20
37499135 37969181 38549157 38819130 39579024=20
40138941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160444
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest Missouri...Adj.
Northwest Arkansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160445Z - 160845Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of potential localized flash flooding
due to slow moving/training thunderstorms across the Ozark Plateau.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic shows a
solid warming/weakening trend to the convective line across much
of the Ozark Plateau. RAP analysis shows warming low levels and
increasing CINH trends across the remaining well of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the exception remaining along the upwind edge across NE
OK; and this is where the healthiest updrafts remain. Still,
KINX/KSGF show most are starting to have dominating outflow
patterns. However, as the dry-line retreated and the mean
upper-level shortwave trough across IA is kicking east; a weakness
in the overall mid-level flow/steering is lying perpendicular to
weakening but sufficient southerly surface to boundary layer/925mb
flow providing solid moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
remaining MLCAPE axis. Tds in the upper 60s to low 70s. With this
convergence and steering flow parallel to the boundary (and
slacking), training or increased downdraft residency may allow for
a narrow axis of enhanced rainfall rates up to 1.75"/hr for a
potential of localized 2-3" total. Beside naturally lower FFG
due to complex terrain across the Ozark Plateau, even further west
into NE OK, FFG values are locally lower with hourly values less
than 1.5-2" and 3" values less than 3". So an isolated incident
or two of flash flooding remains possible more likely over the
next few hours (through 06z) than into late overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TvB5wH1yA2rEBw5_ycJhpkLeoKNTS-Ovu9k5jlIx-qJ2pkeb0t11tRXvyqCe5r2sRyr= ukq0ka5--mZ0V5dP_wCKRGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37839174 37359132 36779169 36529332 36329416=20
36139587 36179651 36579663 36769627 36979505=20
37359379 37769264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 162003
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-170001-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Areas affected...a small part of Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162001Z - 170001Z

Summary...Isolated, slow-moving thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding for the next few hours (through 00Z/7p
central).

Discussion...A localized cluster of thunderstorms has become
established across central Missouri. The storms have developed in
response to strong insolation/surface destabilization beneath a
very cold mid/upper wave (-18C at 500 hPa). The storms are also
in a very localized area where mid-level flow drops off
substantially, with right-moving storm motions falling to around
5-10 knots per point forecast soundings. This explains recent
behavior of the storm cluster very near Osage Beach, MO, where
MRMS estimates of 1+ inch/hr in that area were already exceeding
local FFG.

Given the weak forcing for ascent, convective coverage is in
question. Persistence of ongoing activity - or perhaps additional
slow-moving cluster(s) of convection could produce 1 inch/hr rain
rates at times. Again, these rates could exceed FFG, and given
sensitive local terrain in the region, another instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out. This risk will
likely be diurnally driven and lessen some after sunset.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ObucWhVuhSJtJ-DCrbSpVcGeYPrECRaPTiEJb1XmBzxTkejYnTMq5FUaz6gFsNiaqkA= M_oO_IyUC9okdjLdiTlDbSA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 38919228 38839074 38279022 37459022 37119109=20
37199248 37689329 38099339 38809317=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171811
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...Northeast MO...Western and Northern IL..Eastern
IA...Far Southeast MN...Central and Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171810Z - 180010Z

SUMMARY...Rapid convective development is expected over highly
saturated soils this afternoon. Anomalous moisture and instability
will support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour. While
individual cell motions will be fast, cell-training will lead to
localized totals of 2 to 4 inches, making flash flooding likely
given the sensitive antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery and
surface observations indicate rapid destabilization across the
Upper Midwest ahead of an ejecting upper-level trough and
approaching strong cold front. A 40 to 50+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet is fostering intense warm air advection and moisture
transport into the region, resulting in an anomalously moist and
unstable airmass for mid-April (PWATs climbing to ~1.25 inches and
MLCAPE of 1500 to 3000 J/kg).

Convective initiation is expected imminently as the cap erodes,
particularly near surface waves analyzed over north-central IA and
southeast MN which are locally enhancing convergence. Deep-layer
ascent will continue to increase this afternoon and evening as a
strong shortwave/jet streak rounds the base of the trough and
approaches from the west. Convective mode is expected to feature a
mix of supercells and organized multicell clusters.

While strong deep-layer shear (40 to 50+ kts) will promote fast
individual cell motions to the northeast, the southwesterly
steering flow is largely parallel to the low-level jet axis and
lifting warm front. This alignment will strongly favor corridors
of cell-training and repeating rounds of heavy rainfall over the
same areas. High-efficiency updrafts will be capable of producing
1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates, with the 12Z HREF signaling
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat is the highly
sensitive antecedent conditions. Recent NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm soil
moisture data indicates very moist if not saturated soils (80 to
100%) across much of the region, and USGS streamflow networks show
running waterways are already elevated. With minimal infiltration
capacity, the intense 1 to 2 inch/hour rates will to convert to
enhanced runoff concerns, and likely promoting scattered areas of
flash flooding which will include some localized urban impacts as
well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9hjs2Z_oHmyo18eoaSQu7i3KoZD9Delq5_o_Aeyu83kiVMQIawM1h87TuD-4LEItpLhN= MhaDX-LNgGe5ulc54SN8dxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...EAX...GRB...ILX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45659058 45318891 44168851 42578857 41148902=20
40108946 39429028 39319154 39769277 40559338=20
41339334 43079263 44399214 45129163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171904
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-180102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into
northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171902Z - 180102Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible as storms expand in coverage
and intensity across the discussion area through 00Z/7p central.

Discussion...Convective initiation has occurred in earnest along a
synoptic front extending from near St. Joseph, MO to near Wichita,
KS over the past half hour. The storms are in an extremely
unstable environment, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.2-1.5 inch
PW values supporting heavy rainfall. The front and initial
convection was also oriented parallel to deep southwesterly
steering flow aloft, suggestive of areas of training as storms
mature over the next 1-2 hours. The localized training (and
perhaps cell mergers where individual cells can move right of mean
flow) should result in a few spots of 1.5 inch/hr rain rates that
could result FFG exceedance and flash flooding with time.

Trends through the night will ultimately depend on the degree of
convective coverage and any upscale growth into linear segments
that could materialize. Even if the dominant storm mode becomes
linear, local training axes are likely to materialize and enhance
flash flood risk. These trends, along with any potential
development out ahead of the main frontal band, will be monitored
for any corridors of significant flash flood potential through the
evening hours.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_6urUHJHWAXBLoWXgUTS01fJG-k_8qnlfcUOHJLu-Nf-cVPdz3_l-tPy6jQQo3CpjNI9= 066vCnaiDF9ytCYfuFMT224$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40579404 40529265 39909261 37869402 37089542=20
36999727 37289839 38509719 40219524=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172337
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongated conpmex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75sQHgPWBmHMjZ1Iw9XEB_ZKL_6aH3-pygDpV2_kNNOuyft9zc_2YNqGB8JtW2UbmLfK= YzgLHaEoDJkopQwKKRSvHJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 172339
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-180434-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois, much of Wisconsin,
upper Peninsula of Michigan, western Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172334Z - 180434Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues especially across
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. This threat will shift eastward
through the evening hours.

Discussion...A mix of linear and clustered convection continues to
migrate east/northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of repeating/training were noted across far southern Wisconsin - and
that area remains sensitive from prior heavy rainfall over the
past several days. FFGs near/downstream of ongoing convection in
southern Wisconsin are in the 1 inch/hr range (locally lower),
with urban impacts from heavy rain expected in the Milwaukee area
over the next 1-2 hours or so. Flash flooding remains likely
there.

Farther north, scattered convection has matured over central
Wisconsin just ahead of a synoptic cold front despite widespread
convective overturning. Instability profiles remain supportive of
strong/deep convection in the short term (next couple hours),
though the longevity of this convection is in question with
eastward extent. Nevertheless, widespread impacts from recent
heavy rain, swollen watersheds, and snow melt have left the region
very sensitive (FFGs near 0 in the UP of Michigan, also <1 inch/hr
elsewhere in parts of northeastern Wisconsin), and localized flash
flooding remains possible.

Cells in the southern part of this elongate complex (exiting
southeastern Iowa) are more linear in nature, though a few cells
have developed over west-central Illinois that should merge with
this line over the next few hours. Ground conditions aren't as
sensitive in central Illinois compared to farther north. Flash
flooding may be more isolated/dependent on local rain rate
enhancement from these mergers.

Eventually, this elongated complex will shift eastward through
northeastern Illinois and into western Indiana, with at least
isolated flash flood potential continuing through 05Z/midnight
central.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9U-h3PbHAPaEvnkDE8b8ojujiT2ikJcvFmDdocidQB9F7rW9CG0HfjZD7aSshrypXflm= 0uVx1ZhowZi6PlF2XOrL6hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DVN...GRB...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT... LSX...MKX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46768913 46698706 46338613 44718704 42648721=20
41438661 40218642 39408761 39449008 40039107=20
40969098 42259046 43959061 45999024=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180043
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Areas affected...northern/central/eastern Oklahoma, southeastern
Kansas, southern/central Missouri, northwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180041Z - 180641Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding remain possible
through 06Z/1a central.

Discussion...Ongoing convection has largely organized into an
extensive linear complex extending from near Osage Beach, MO
west-southwestward through Ponca City and Gage, OK. The storms
are mostly undercut by composite synoptic front/outflow, although
a few elements in central Missouri and far north-central Oklahoma
remain surface-based. The storms are migrating eastward between
35-45 knots while exhibiting localized training and areas of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates should be enough for
isolated flash flooding as FFG thresholds are generally in the
1-1.5 inch/hr range especially from north-central Oklahoma
eastward.

Storms will be maintained through the overnight hours by abundant
instability (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strengthening low-level
flow oriented perpendicular to the aforementioned front/outflow,
maintaining robust updrafts and occasional training. Cells may
tend to weaken some in east-central Missouri, but re-development
over western Oklahoma near a front/dryline intersection should
maintain the heavy rain risk through at least 06Z/1a central
tonight. Flash flooding is expected on at least an isolated basis
where training is most pronounced, with terrain influences in
southwestern Missouri also likely playing a role in enhancing
flash flood risk. Lastly, models suggest that the ongoing
convective band will gradually develop southeastward toward the
I-40 corridor in Oklahoma through the night.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8uiQ__KyH0yp5gD3LVLtiqN8N1vgyEat01kFbc0VsJSyK8Qphlh3hQqt4IJgyiwUMQIe= xQ9i_b7j_xr2DclgdMvU51Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39309207 38969054 37709043 36569135 35499386=20
34529681 34489883 35219970 36259956 36939828=20
37899631 38929406=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181945
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181945Z - 190145Z

SUMMARY...Potent thunderstorms capable of producing >2"/hr
rainfall rates over the urbanized communities of southeast TX and
southwest LA could cause localized urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and Doppler Radar show a bubbling
field of convection over southeast TX and southwest LA in advance
of an approaching strong cold front. Additional surface based
heating this afternoon will yield over 1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE along
the I-10 corridor. Winds in advance, and in wake, of the cold
front are NErly while winds within the 700-200mb layer are firmly
out of the WSW. This is supporting effective bulk vertical wind
shear levels that the RAP suggests could surpass 40 kts. This
would allow for thunderstorms to have more longevity than typical
"pop-up" or "garden variety" storms. HRRR and RAP area averaged
soundings show warm cloud layers up to 12,000ft deep and skinny
CAPE profiles that found in typical warm rain processes. As 850mb
and 700mb weaken over the region this evening, the concern is for
additional thunderstorm development either along the cold front or
induced by the growing cold pool.

Given the favorable thermodynamic environment and increasing PWs
that reach 2.0" east of Houston this evening, the concern is for

2"/hr rainfall rates that manifest over urbanized environments.

The 12Z HREF does show low-chance probabilities (10-30%) from the
Houston suburbs on east into southwest LA this afternoon and
evening. The vast majority of the expected rainfall over southeast
TX and southwest LA this afternoon is welcomed (severe and extreme
drought for many), which is also evident in the 1-hr FFGs that are
no lower than 2" area wide. That said, the potential for
slow-moving and repeating rounds of storms, combined with
anomalous PWs and ample instability aloft, could cause localized
flash flooding in urbanized settings that contain a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. Low-lying areas with poor
drainage are also susceptible to flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9x_hjSr_ftys34SFugzCvxjT-H0aqr-0ltdAUpbxeqrkiGilLjiBwS_-XpRE3GUtr1g_= A55YawAS8oeq-cWzDYFgzAg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30589389 30569330 30069327 29629387 29209491=20
28939574 28839638 28939668 29259658 29709602=20
30369451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201828
FFGMPD
FLZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201825Z - 210015Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing 2 to 3+
in/hr are expected to impact southern FL over the next 4-6 hours.
While a large portion of the area affected is covered by swamp,
there could be impacts to urban areas along the southwest and
southeastern coast.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations and satellite imagery showed
a cold front dropping south across Monroe and Miami-Dade counties
along with sea breeze boundaries along the southwestern and
southeastern FL coastlines. Visible satellite and radar imagery
showed the early stages of thunderstorm development with at least
one developed cell 10-15 miles southwest of Miami. SPC
mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5
to 1.7 inches. Low level flow was from the east to northeast and
deeper layer mean winds were relatively weak from the WNW.

Daytime heating and an apparent lack of CIN across southern FL
will lead to additional rapid thunderstorm development within the
next 1-2 hours along low level convergence boundaries forced by
the cold and sea breeze fronts, and later, subsequent convectively
driven outflow boundaries. Slow movement and brief training of
these cores are likely to produce heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr with the possibility of storm total rainfall in excess of 5
inches. While the 12Z HREF showed 40 km neighborhood probabilities
of exceeding 3 to 5 inches of 20-40 percent, the likelihood of
these higher rates falling over water or swampland is greater than
that of impacting population centers along the coast. However,
should these higher rates overlap with the Naples/Macro Island
region or east-central Miami-Dade County to the upper Keys, urban
flash flooding will be possible. The flash flood threat is
expected to end from north to south and likely be over with after
00Z as the front moves south of the Peninsula.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AbXtSs2fP1pYZm6Urke5r5CjAgMjCRLCRbGztQ_qt2Cj4zKjJ7W_3kPEsfLCJ4xBv1L= QWbWIlP__ZXdYNaPHGCKEFU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26368187 26078093 25858011 25258007 24988041=20
25138135 25888205=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201932
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201929Z - 210009Z

Summary...Additional development of efficient, shallow convection
containing periodic 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates will maintain the
threat of scattered flash flooding this afternoon over portions of
Central TX.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic over Central TX depicts an area
of slow moving and efficient showers and thunderstorms which has
persisted through the morning and afternoon hours. Over the last
hour or so, a cell within the broader precipitation shield between
San Antonio and San Marcos has exhibited an uptick in hourly
precipitation rates to 1.5-2"/hr, or 0.50-0.63"/15 minutes per
recent observations, MRMS, and KEWX data. When combined with slow
cell storm motions estimated at 10 kts, this storm led to a quick
uptick in CREST Unit Streamflows to 200-600 cfs/smi where a Flash
Flood Warning was recently issued.

This activity is occurring downstream of an approaching
upper-trough and left exit region jet streak in Northern Mexico to
support broad ascent across the region. At the low levels, an axis
of modest 850-700 mb layer convergence and WAA is also noted just
upwind of this activity. ACARS soundings near the heaviest showers
and thunderstorms suggest a very moist and saturated column from
the surface to 600 mb and 400-500 J/kg of MUCAPE to support
efficient collision-coalescence processes in this activity. While
the instability profile is very shallow, it is somewhat higher
than what CAMS are initializing with (100-250 J/kg) in this area,
which could partially explain why the observed rainfall is more
robust than what is modeled. That said, the RAP does suggest the
aforementioned low-level forcing will persist through the
afternoon hours while the upper-trough approaches for the west.
Thus, the threat of scattered flash flooding will continue through
the afternoon as new cells with periodic 1.5-2"/hr rates could
develop and overlap with the area of current heavy rainfall,
leading to additional totals of 2-3".

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6P27gS0htMUt6ruBzVjQGTOBciYb1I84fU-8LYNmHZqsrW2YvQ28M3ERE9FmwAUoPBGt= AyRfqbg7HBFjdj823bTghhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30409962 30379879 30309766 30009691 29409657=20
28979693 28989818 29339916 29929974=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210026
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210504-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
825 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Areas affected...Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210024Z - 210504Z

Summary...Additional thunderstorms are developing over portions of South-Central TX this evening. These cells will maintain the
threat of flash flooding as they could train and overlap with
areas of heavy rainfall earlier today.

Discussion...Radar across South-Central TX depicts a rapid
expansion in thunderstorm coverage and intensity along the leading
edge of a shortwave near the Big-Bend of TX. At the same time, an
axis of persistent shallow convection northeast of San Antonio was
finally showing signs of weakening after producing 2-4" of
rainfall this afternoon. This activity was quite impactful earlier
today, and 1-2"/hr rainfall rates led to at least one report of a
swift water rescue near Live Oak TX where CREST Unit Streamflows
eclipsed 900 cfs/smi at times.

With that in mind, the concern is for additional thunderstorms
containing 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates to expand southwest of San
Antonio, in turn leading to periods of training/repeating near
areas impacted earlier today. This scenario is supported by recent
runs of the HRRR (which is an slow but overall has the best handle
on the situation). Taking into account the timing of the HRRR,
this suggests the threat of scattered flash flooding should
persist through 4-5Z tonight. Localized rainfall amounts of 1-2"
could support additional considerable flash flooding impacts,
especially if they fall atop the areas of heaviest rainfall today
(highlighted in red).

Asherman=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pgGySLa8E2fX8z1a-v1EJ-5dByc4dC3VwIx7_d_Lp_Oyn3qKBs_LqqdACbFnEkn5076= LY9CTpEWQN9KPvCUyWfLKis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30109900 30009752 29279747 28959854 29129944=20
29649956=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211000
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...Triangle of Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211000Z - 211530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding risk possible given slow
moving/back-building warm-advective shallow but efficient showers/thunderstorms. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are possible with
localized 2-3" totals.

DISCUSSION...A very effective dynamic environment is helping to
draw above normal moisture into a favorable ascent pattern over
the next few hours across the Triangle of central Texas. GOES-E
WV suite depicts a decaying MCV across southeast TX along the
southeast periphery of favorable mid to upper-level divergent
pattern along the northeast quadrant of a 70kt 3H west to east jet
along/north of 30N. Combined with NW to SE diffluent pattern from
500-250mb providing strong divergence for effective convective
outflow. However, it is also directing strong ageostrophic
forcing by helping to accelerate the early morning western Gulf
jet streak fluxing enhanced low level moisture northward into the
isentropic ascent plane. CIRA LPW along with VWP vectors denote
core of west Gulf jet is propagating 20-25kts in the core of .8 to
1" moisture in the surface to 850mb layer. Combine this with the
axis of 700-500 mid-level moist flow from the subtropical eastern
Pacific results in combined PW values nearing 1.5" near the best
isentropic ascent currently through the San Saba River Valley.

As such, recent 10.3um EIR and RADAR show increasing shallow
convective activity along the NW to SE oriented DPVA into the best diffluence/divergence region downstream. The only limiting factor
is the lack of higher theta-E air resulting in a broader unstable
layer. Currently, it is limited to 100-250 J/kg of MUCAPE but
only expected to increase toward 500 J/kg toward mid-morning as
the core of the western Gulf air reaches the area of concern.=20
Deep layer flux and ascent should allow for solid convergence and
low level precipitation development likely with smaller droplets
in warm-cloud process generation. This should allow for increased
rainfall rates, but without the greater vertical depth, is likely
to be limited to the 1.25" range at max. Convective cells are
likely to move toward the northeast, but with continued south to
southwest low level inflow, propagation vectors should be
supportive of upstream redevelopment/back-building of the shallow
cores. This should allow for increased overall duration to
potentially support highly focused/localized maximum totals of
2-3" through to afternoon.=20

Hydrologically, these maximum totals are at the minimum thresholds
of 1 but more likely 3 hour FFG values in the area, particularly
along the southwest edge of the area of concern. NASA SPoRT LIS
0-40cm soil conditions suggest average saturation around 45-55%
and as such, most rainfall will be beneficial, but an isolated
incident or two of flash flooding is considered possible given the
strong dynamics and setup's history.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_I219mon2hUaIT9iZgkore_06USnlzSqH8nUYqkck59CIiG6-YfaYH-y3ycu4YEpwlLD= 4FbM0lDcXhAwB3fCiFCScWs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32539720 32209657 31769628 31419629 31169645=20
30919666 30589712 30449755 30679836 31159887=20
31779894 32509834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211535
FFGMPD
TXZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Areas affected...East central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211533Z - 212100Z

Summary...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop across eastern portions of central Texas late this
morning, and are expected to persist going into the early to
middle afternoon hours. Rainfall rates in excess of an inch per
hour may lead to additional instances of flooding through 4 pm
local time.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-E satellite imagery
continue to indicate a swath of heavy rainfall with embedded
convection, centered mainly between San Saba and Columbus, Texas
late this morning. This is primarily developing as a result of
enhanced ascent from a 700 mb trough axis and mid-level shortwave
intersecting moist 20-30 knot 850 mb southerly flow, and this band
has been maintaining itself over the past few hours with only
limited latitudinal displacement over the morning hours.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for scattered QPF
maxima on the order of 1-3 inches through 21Z, with recent ARW
runs most impressive with up to 4 inches possible during that
time. The soils are becoming increasingly saturated and prone to
additional flooding, with some regions getting 2 to 4 inches in
just the past 12 hours as depicted in the graphic, and flash flood
guidance is dropping in response to this. Even though the
instability parameters are modest and most rainfall rates should
be 1.5 inches per hour or less, some instances of flash flooding
will be possible given the duration of the event.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6rZMdZryMnN1h6U47HcOTCMKMYBmebTgM_8KHuzizEgtqpQj8aSaafmjYcXXKRj4CWEH= y070S3biTHnSDXrWh992LpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31399745 31079654 30659580 30219534 29699511=20
29059518 28879550 28899585 28989632 29229708=20
29909767 30189812 30509848 30959864 31259830=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222045
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...central TX to middle/upper TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222042Z - 230130Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of central TX into the middle and upper TX Coastal Plain through
the early evening. Localized rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr (locally
higher) will be possible which could lead to runoff problems where
overlap occurs with urban areas or other locations with poor
drainage, especially given above average rainfall over the past
few days.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across southeastern TX at 2015Z
showed scattered thunderstorms across the middle and upper TX
Coastal Plain, mainly east of U.S. Hwy 77. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 20Z showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and PWs of
1.3 to 1.6 inches across the region. The storms were located
within northwest flow aloft between two vorticity maxima, one over
the Gulf, south of western LA within a region of effective bulk
shear between 30-35 kt, and a second vort max over northeastern
TX. Bulk shear values dropped off significantly to the north and
low level onshore flow between 925-850 mb of less than 15 kt
appeared to be limiting organization over land. However, cell
motions were fairly slow at 5-15 kt and portions of the region
have picked up 2-4 inches of rain over the past 4 days, higher to
the west near I-35.

Therefore, while cells were not very organized, slow movement and
outflow interactions/mergers could result in hourly rainfall of
2-3 inches (perhaps locally higher) and localized totals of 2-4
inches through 01Z. While congealing outflows could result in some
westward migration of activity toward 00Z, the overall footprint
of ongoing storms is not expected to change much over the next few
hours. Isolated higher rainfall maxima could result in flash
flooding should they overlap with more sensitive ground
conditions, whether that be an urban location or locally
hydrologically sensitive area due to recent rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_3LvrLfgRtViQVo-_a9F6P1Xv6F7kfWFSRPquiOqE_-jVWwsbw2FBSSnmKKdI1qasTBI= rsQcycUFdREyrZbFU_yPA64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30799449 30649406 30429393 29889416 29389487=20
28859565 28849669 29109711 29429747 29689764=20
29999763 30269730 30379683 30509592 30759510=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232000
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...northeastern KS, southeastern NE, southwestern
IA, northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231956Z - 240100Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible
from northeastern KS into southeastern NE, western IA and
northwestern MO. Training of thunderstorms will produce hourly
rainfall of 1-2 in/hr with peak rainfall totals of 2-4 inches
possible, through 01Z.

Discussion...1945Z radar imagery showed a broken line of
thunderstorms extending from south-central MN down to the NE/KS
border, just ahead of a cold front. A cyclonic swirl was observed
on visible imagery over northern KS, related to a low to mid-level
vorticity max located just north of the surface triple point.
Strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing in the vicinity of
Omaha, NE with rapid development noted south of Omaha to the NE/KS
border. SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE from western IA into east-central KS ahead of the cold
front with little to no CIN present.

While thunderstorm activity to the north over western IA continues
to grow and expand downstream toward central IA through 00Z, newer
development to the south is also expected to expand within the
unstable environment ahead of the front and favorably
diffluent/divergent jet pattern aloft. A general eastward
advancement of the line is expected but an inflection or two
within the line of storms is anticipated, allowing for the
increased potential for brief training from the NE/IA border down
into northeastern KS as line orientation matches that of the mean
steering from from the southwest. Elements of training will be
capable of 1-2 in/hr rates and there will be isolated potential
for 2-4 inches through 01Z as the line of thunderstorms advances
off toward the east.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77pisuZzS7nVKIjm86sEMRBSU92gf0hG8Jrg_GINe5iPA9dGpBPfqkUmC-wLry78e5nO= Fsv2NO7BvOXPtH-oP3LAvqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41949521 41839435 41249367 39789434 37989595=20
38109739 38699787 39899740 41119655=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240029
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-240600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...Upper MS Valley into MN Arrowhead/western U.P. of
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240027Z - 240600Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible across northeastern IA/southeastern and northeastern MN
into WI and the western U.P. of MI over the next 6 hours. Training
of heavy rain is expected to produce 1-2 in/hr rates with isolated
totals in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Discussion...Area radar imagery at 00Z showed an intense squall
line which extended from north-central IA into northeastern KS,
tracking slowly toward the east-northeast. Meanwhile, less
organized convection was noted to the north near western Lake
Superior into central WI along with additional scattered storms in
eastern IA. Estimated MLCAPE from 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed
500 to 1500+ J/kg from northeastern IA into the western half of WI
(highest to the south, ahead of the SQLN). MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
was estimated across the eastern MN Arrowhead, north of a surface
warm front. Aloft, a 90-100 kt jet streak was captured via GOES
East DMV over western MN, with diffluent and divergent winds
within its right-entrance region, likely supporting the recent
uptick in convective activity over eastern IA.

Expectations are for the squall line to continue advancing toward
the ENE, while coverage and intensity increases regarding the
activity from eastern IA into WI, owing to strengthening jet
support in the upper levels. However, one limiting factor for
maintaining convective intensity through the first half of the
night is the forecast for weakening instability with time and with
northern extent. On the other hand, portions of the region have
seen over 300 percent of normal rainfall over the past 2 weeks
which will contribute to quicker runoff from heavy rain. Lingering
snow cover in limited northern locations may also contribute to
excess runoff from added heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2
in/hr within areas of training from northeastern IA into
southeastern MN and portions of western/central WI can be expected
at times, with storm total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a couple
of locations. These widely scattered instances of heavier rainfall
could lead to flash flooding within portions of the Upper MS
Valley through ~06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kgfqTSwxWwKfzCXp6PG-UAyu1foOIh4ilYhnayi2dXgpRbpViVpumX8fci7fSoUunxJ= twj7iBcBPU6tjsc2DwGSc9s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48228962 47748933 45408862 43648935 42109078=20
41619219 42109326 43829283 45429220 47259153=20
48209035=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240111
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-240630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240109Z - 240630Z

Summary...A focused region of flash flooding is expected to set up
over portions of southeastern KS into northeastern OK through 06Z.
Slow movement/training of cells will lead to hourly rainfall of 1
to 3 inches and storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches over the
next few hours.

Discussion...Area radar imagery across the central Plains at 01Z
showed two intense areas of slow moving convection. First over
eastern KS, over and just northeast of Wichita and a second area
over northern OK, bisecting I-35. The northern cluster of storms
was near the triple point (near ICT) and was associated with an
outflow boundary which intersected to the west, at the triple
point. Both areas have been associated with training and resided
within a very unstable environment with MLCAPE estimated in the
2500-3500 J/kg range (00Z SPC mesoanalysis and 00Z OKC sounding).
Fading visible imagery showed cloud streets oriented with the low
level inflow, south to north, into the northern OK thunderstorms.
The eastern KS/OK border lay beneath a diffluent upper level jet
pattern, favorable for increased ascent over the region.

As the low level jet continues to increase with the diurnal cycle,
exceeding 50 kt over northeastern OK by 03-04Z (recent RAP
forecasts), overrunning of the storm-generated cold pools should
continue to support convective regeneration along the southwestern
flank of the system with WSW to ENE training, while overall
southward propagation occurs gradually with time. The low level
flow is expected to veer by ~06Z which should allow the convective
cluster to advance eastward away from its current initiation point
along the dryline. However, up until that happens, locally heavy
rainfall is expected to support areas of flash flooding with total
rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4IhhlNU2-TD0lf6iOAtxNfWHMxiBhR6ZzQMqDoUwtb1AoqbV-UaP8nALEjLyD8ddVPY= CTr8DwZ8JwE5hBk8Xurdt5A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38339621 38269564 37749511 37399499 36559504=20
35959602 35739762 35999840 36709810 37739759=20
38179690=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240540
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Far Southeast
KS...Southwest MO...Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240538Z - 241135Z

SUMMARY...Backbuilding and training thunderstorms producing 1.5 to
2.5 inch/hour rainfall rates will pose a significant urban flash
flood threat across northern to northeast Oklahoma early this
morning. Convection will eventually grow upscale into an MCS and
track east-southeastward into the Ozark Plateau through dawn.
Broad totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized amounts
possibly exceeding 5 inches.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite trends depict a highly
active convective environment across northern Oklahoma.
Thunderstorms are continuously backbuilding and training along a
well-defined mesoscale outflow boundary, positioned east of a
dryline and ahead of a surface wave transiting a cold front. The
thermodynamic and kinematic environment is exceptionally
supportive of extreme rainfall rates. A strong 40 to 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) is impinging directly onto the
outflow boundary, providing intense moisture convergence and
tapping into a robust instability pool characterized by 2000-3000
J/kg of MUCAPE. Furthermore, upper-level divergence associated
with an ejecting trough is providing deep-layer ascent to sustain
robust convective updrafts.

Currently, this setup is fostering high-efficiency rainfall rates
of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. Given the quasi-stationary nature of
the boundary and the parallel alignment of the convection to the
deep-layer steering flow, persistent cell-training is occurring.
This will pose a significant, localized flash flood threat over
the highly sensitive urban footprints from Stillwater through the
Tulsa metro over the next few hours.

As the cold pool eventually strengthens and coalesces, convection
is expected to grow upscale into an east-southeast propagating
MCS. However, the strong southwesterly LLJ will continue to favor
persistent backbuilding on the southwest flank of the convective
mass, effectively slowing the forward translation of the heaviest
rainfall cores. High-resolution guidance (including the HRRR and
00Z HREF) supports widespread 2 to 4 inch totals, but given the
prolonged training potential, localized storm totals up to 5+
inches are highly probable.

Towards sunrise and through the 12Z time frame, this complex will
push into the Ozark Plateau across southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. As the low-level flow interacts with the
complex topography of the Ozarks, mechanical lift will sustain
high rainfall rates. The steep, flashy basins of this region will
be highly susceptible to rapid runoff from these accumulations,
carrying a localized flash flood threat right through the morning
commute.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87rVcEPmsU9ex1Yk0K8aWF2Pb8232nBhVf7ItOCXLPVZNzMyriOrFzStjEF4-wbQlPKD= d_jNmt4E0BBYixOlqowwVpI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37729347 37429237 36579207 35939265 35409427=20
35209635 35369772 35869835 36199831 36419785=20
36719636 37279469=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250442
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-251000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Far Southeast AR...Northern
LA...Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250440Z - 251000Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns can be expected over the next few hours.
Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour may result in some isolated
and mainly urban concerns for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows
convection becoming a little more concentrated across portions of
northeast TX as modest upstream shortwave/jet energy interacts
with a well-defined outflow boundary and the pooling of rather
strong instability along it. Meanwhile, farther east across far
southeast AR and into central MS, an elevated axis of convection
is seeing with cooling convective tops associated with warm air advection/isentropic ascent over the top of a well-established
cold pool.

MUCAPE values across northeast TX and through northern LA and
southwest MS are on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with modest
low-level flow in the 850/925 mb layer of only 10 to 20 kts.
However, there is some deeper layer ascent being facilitated by
upstream shortwave energy that is embedded within the deeper layer
westerly flow. This coupled with the low-level warm air advection
and proximity of the outflow boundary should tend to favor some
convective sustenance and perhaps further expansion of activity
over the next few hours across northeast TX through northern LA
and central MS.

Given the level of instability and with PWs of near 1.5 inches,
some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 inches/hour. Alignment with
the deeper layer westerly steering flow in the 850/300 mb layer
will suggest at least some concerns for localized cell-training,
and this may yield some additional rainfall totals of 3 to 4+
inches. This is also being advertised by some of the 00Z HREF
guidance.

Expect at least an isolated and mainly urban concern for flash
flooding over the next few hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZkRTFNNWkfRCJJ2FBXzVe9MqwfN1u3t6urR953tBOnAQk-O2S2ZLVqfSPcLSDOHzWpy= KyTxBcxFRu0DUi3CEEDBNt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33529134 33508963 32928865 32198847 31528903=20
31269031 31369280 31829516 32229628 32869624=20
32949521 33049332=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252306
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-260503-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX into Southeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252303Z - 260503Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood risk exists through the evening
hours across portions of northeast TX into southwest OK.
Supercells will be capable of producing heavy rainfall resulting
in an urban flash flood risk. Additionally, localized cell mergers
near the warm front may also result in isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Supercell activity is expected through the evening,
with development near a dryline and a warm front near the Red
River. The environment is characterized by extreme instability
(MLCAPE around 4000 j/kg) and strong shear (effective bulk shear
around 50kts). This overlap of ingredients supports supercells
with very large hail and heightened tornado potential (see SPC
tornado watch 144). While these are likely the primary hazards
associated with this convection, an isolated flash flood risk
could also evolve.

Limiting factors for heavy rainfall will be the very steep lapse
rates and some dry air in the mid levels keeping PWs around
1.4-1.6". However, strong mesocyclones within these supercells
will enhance lift and help increase rainfall efficiency. This will
result in heavy rainfall rates, though forecast supercell motions
off to the east-southeast at 10-20 kts should limit duration.
Consequently, the flash flood risk will primarily depend on
supercell mergers or clusters extending duration. This is
certainly a possibility, especially near the warm front where
persistent convergence and storm tracks along the front could
yield some training and local rainfall over 3". Even without cell
training a localized urban flash flood risk exists as these cells
can drop 2" of rain quickly.

Recent HRRR runs seemingly have a decent handle on the expected
convective evolution through the evening hours. The HRRR depicts
an uptick in 850mb moisture transport later this evening into
tonight, which will help sustain activity as convection
increasingly forward propagates. However, with moisture transport
persisting over northeast TX towards the Red River, we will need
to monitor for additional development overnight depending on how
this evenings supercells impact the instability field. If
additional development occurs, the pattern would support some
northwest to southeast training.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Hyn8ePr9iIUeGEETHZyqRefzkhOuBk5OioV-2JVecsiaT7eE6mGIDCYy8_-xq3Td85K= BOvq6mqBoX6cyy3scyIbpeM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34809731 34729657 33959509 33499446 32589480=20
32489608 32769762 33269827 33829861 34169838=20
34509800=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260043
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-260641-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
842 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Eastern OK, Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260041Z - 260641Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood risk exists from far southeast
KS into eastern OK and western AR as convection briefly trains
and/or backbuilds across this corridor.

DISCUSSION...Convection across southeast KS into eastern OK will
pose an isolated flash flood risk tonight. This activity is well
north of the warm front closer to the Red River, but is close to
the 850mb front and moisture convergence axis. Despite a more
stable boundary layer, steep lapse rates are resulting in MUCAPE
over 2000 J/kg, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support
organized convection and supercell development.

While high resolution models have struggled with this activity,
the 23z HRRR and WoFS are now indicating that convection may
persist or grow upscale into eastern OK and west-central AR, and
recent observational trends are beginning to show some signs of
this. The 23z WoFS shows 90th percentile QPF exceeding 3" near the
OK/AR border. With 850mb moisture transport/convergence forecast
to maintain or increase a bit over the next several hours over
this region, this persistence scenario seems plausible.

There is some uncertainty regarding how convection further south
(MPD 131) might impact the organization of this northern activity.
If the activity further south grows upscale enough it could
negatively impact the intensity and organization of this northern
activity. However, given that current convection is over
performing and the environment remains conducive to organized
development, some flash flood risk exists over the next several
hours. Recent rainfall has also lowered FFG enough to support
isolated exceedances as cells move southeast or backbuild.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4B5qv05O2uHwvwtxBdoyY6_GbFqp-NjUbW7aDlr_fQ62iY_gtSdxKKbo5j-a-RZ1gG4U= iPXuhY1u19nB0NBayOk0Qpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37389624 37029470 35619345 34709341 34329367=20
34429455 34859503 35549550 36709632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260332
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1131 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Areas affected...Northern Texas...South-Central to Southeast
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260331Z - 260930Z

SUMMARY...Supercells and merging convective clusters will continue
to organize and propagate southeastward overnight. An increasingly
favorable nocturnal environment will support rainfall rates of 2+
inches/hour. While antecedent conditions are relatively dry,
intense localized rates and cell-mergers may yield totals of 2 to
4+ inches, posing especially an urban flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery and recent
mesoanalysis show a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough over
the Plains interacting with a highly unstable airmass across the
Red River Valley. A highly conducive thermodynamic environment is
in place, characterized by PWs of ~1.5 inches, MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg, and very steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km). This is
fueling robust supercellular convection, aided by deep-layer shear
locally exceeding 50 kts. Convection over northern TX remains
largely surface-based within the warm sector, while activity over
southern OK is slightly elevated, supported by a stationary front
and 925 mb frontogenesis.

Through the overnight hours, the current 20 to 30 kt low-level jet
is forecast to intensify, and this nocturnal enhancement will
increase warm air advection and moisture transport directly into
the Red River Valley, particularly toward south-central and
southeast OK. Upwind propagation vectors are aligned to the
southeast, strongly favoring the gradual upscale growth of merging
supercells into a forward-propagating MCS.

The 00Z HREF indicates a 20 to 30 percent probability of rainfall
rates exceeding 2 inches/hour within the heaviest cores. Storm
totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
where cell-training or complex mergers occur. While Flash Flood
Guidance (FFG) is higher across this corridor due to drier
antecedent conditions, the sheer intensity of the 2+ inches/hour
rates will easily outpace infiltration, resulting in isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding, especially over any urban
footprints. This will include portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area over the next 1 to 2 hours in particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_WY6Q3jdw2wzm8UWjF8F_wtHXHhRQ1mYvg0Bix0Uq_GrsY_cSRLOHLMHc7GdIRqJ-Zu1= RPTZ2V72_NEnGTbwWKMPCMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34429609 33999474 33359420 32639414 32009488=20
32039649 32519751 32969786 33759788 34269736=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260401
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-261000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Western and Southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260400Z - 261000Z

SUMMARY... Elevated thunderstorms will continue to organize and
drop southeastward across western and southern Arkansas overnight.
Locally sensitive antecedent conditions combined with rates
approaching 2 inches/hour will support a likelihood for isolated
to scattered areas of flash flooding which will include some urban
impacts.

DISCUSSION...A broken axis of slow-moving and locally training
thunderstorms is ongoing across far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. Unlike the surface-based activity further southwest,
this convection is elevated and rooted near the 850 mb layer. It
is being driven by strong 850 mb frontogenetic lift and the
proximity of a sharp instability gradient, with the convection
positioned well within an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and PWs
near 1.25 inches.

Upwind propagation vectors point toward the southeast. Over the
next several hours, this activity is expected to gradually grow
upscale, but with multiple MCS clusters dropping southeastward as=20
through west-central and eventually southern Arkansas. The 00Z
HREF highlights a 20 to 30 percent probability of 2 inch/hour
rainfall rates within the heaviest convective elements. Total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are anticipated where some of
these convective clusters repeat over the same area.

The primary driver for the flash flood threat in this corridor is
the relatively sensitive antecedent conditions from recent
rainfall. The latest NASA SPoRT 0 to 10 cm relative soil moisture
data indicates highly moist antecedent conditions across eastern
OK and western AR. With a fairly compromised infiltration
capacity, the anticipated 2 inch/hour rates and any localized
cell-training will readily convert to runoff, posing a continued
flash flood threat through the predawn hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49ecoj177dP5oakzAcDtYlovBERpppqbFIgfuctrNIPa3OSPO7idsMAYYXD9dWqzzI3D= MC7D4zb9BEuylvWALBqS6Zw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36149347 35579257 34639166 33889125 33219159=20
32989235 33199342 34399461 35469508 36069459=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262101
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270258-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern KS and Western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262058Z - 270258Z

SUMMARY...A generally progressive convective line crossing Kansas
will produce locally heavy rainfall. An increase in backbuilding
or training on the southern extent of the line could lead to
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a severe convective line
progressing eastward across portions of Kansas. Thus far, the
progressive forward motion of this activity has largely limited
the flash flood threat. However, the mesoscale environment along
the southern flank of this line is becoming increasingly
supportive of additional convective development and possible
training.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates PWAT values are currently hovering
around 1.4 inches. While not extreme overall, these values are
above the 90th percentile for this time of year, providing
sufficient moisture for efficient rainfall production. Instability
is moderate, with MLCAPE currently analyzed around 1000-2000 J/kg.
Higher instability values upstream are expected to advect into the
region, driven by increasing southerly low-level moisture
transport.

As the primary convective line continues eastward, its progressive
nature should keep the widespread flash flood threat low. However,
the increasing moisture transport and instability feeding into the
southern extent of the line should allow for some new updraft
development, supporting backbuilding or training of cells. Should
this mesoscale evolution materialize, localized training of
intense rainfall rates could overwhelm local drainage capacity or
sensitive basins, leading to an isolated to scattered flash flood
threat across portions of eastern KS into adjacent areas of
west-central MO. The northern extent of the line should remain
progressive, keeping the threat confined to a localized urban risk.

Confidence in the exact convective evolution over the next several
hours remains somewhat below average, as the high-resolution model
guidance have struggled to accurately handle the ongoing activity
and placement. However, the 19z HRRR and 18z RRFS are starting to
show an enhanced QPF signature over southeast KS into west-central
MO. This supports the idea of an increasing training/backbuilding
risk over this corridor with 3"+ rainfall possible, potentially
focused around the southern extent of the outflow from the ongoing
MCS.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4p2WqBT35d8F_3X-42PbXNVk_-lZoJ1pd66QqUzfhGDbuI7y2SW4U0YvLsxJN3CfoYhw= vDstoC_7o7Zp_Fk5oCgjbzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39319460 39209427 38809342 38499314 37709302=20
37129340 37039441 36989570 37009623 37009656=20
37009692 37049731 37629699 38189612 38559589=20
39199554 39299504=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270203
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Southwest MO, Northeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270200Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving supercells and cell mergers will pose at
least an isolated flash flood risk this evening across portions of
Southeast KS, far northeast OK and southwest MO. The degree of
upscale growth into a larger convective cluster remains uncertain,
keeping confidence lower for a more widespread threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery currently depicts scattered
supercellular convection ongoing across the region. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates impressive MLCAPE ranging from 1500 to 3000
J/kg collocated with strong deep layer shear. Moisture is
moderate, with PW values analyzed around 1.3-1.5 inches, but
rainfall efficiency will likely be enhanced within any stronger
mesocyclones.

Over the next several hours, large scale forcing for ascent is
expected to gradually increase as a shortwave trough approaches
from the west, accompanied by strengthening upper level
divergence. Concurrently, low level moisture transport and
convergence are forecast to intensify this evening. This evolution
should promote at least some upscale growth of the ongoing
convection into larger multi-cell clusters that slowly move off to
the east-southeast. As convective coverage increases, the risk of
cell mergers, backbuilding, and training will naturally rise,
setting the stage for localized swaths of heavier rainfall.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact degree of
upscale growth this evening. At a minimum, the slow-moving nature
of the ongoing supercells combined with a few cell mergers should
result in at least an isolated flash flood risk. At a maximum, the
increasing moisture convergence and large scale forcing will drive
enough upscale convective growth to force a more focused area of
flash flooding.

Despite the uncertainty in the exact convective evolution, high
resolution guidance highlights the heavy rainfall ceiling should
consolidation occur. Notably, 00z WoFS depicts over an 90%
probability of exceeding 3 inches of rainfall in a swath near the
KS/OK/MO intersection, a 40-70% probability of localized totals
exceeding 5 inches, and a 90th percentile rainfall of 7". The
exact footprint of the WoFS may not perfectly verify, but it
illustrates a realistic heavy rainfall potential given the
ingredients currently in place.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9asc44z1Ie5HYee6Y51YDr4OzdBO8kbY-qpON2I9YMJvG8HCwnHWTsBRCpzNvuEj_5v4= bE2A5l3wPdn3uZpdrxV01Nw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38659279 38429233 37739183 36759218 36489325=20
36449456 36559611 36999644 37759574 38059519=20
38349420=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270517
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KS...West-Central and
Northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270515Z - 271115Z

SUMMARY...An intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will foster a
corridor of heavy, and locally training thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern Kansas through west-central and
northwest Missouri overnight and into early Monday morning.
High-efficiency rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and localized
storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected. A concern for urban
flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery is showing the
development and expansion of cold-topped convection across central
Kansas as upstream shortwave energy/troughing ejects east across
the central High Plains and interacts with the nose of an
increasingly strong southwesterly low-level jet. This is
coinciding with the pooling of strong instability along and
poleward of a warm front across southern Kansas.

MUCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs locally as
high as about 1.25 inches. The increasing low-level jet overnight
in conjunction with strengthening DPVA/jet-dynamics downstream of
the approaching trough will facilitate upscale growth of
convection over the next few hours across central and gradually
eastern Kansas. Some of the latest guidance, and notably the HRRR
solutions, suggests a well-defined surface low evolution from
southwest to northeast Kansas by late tonight which would focus
enhanced moisture transport and forcing up across areas of eastern
Kansas and eventually northwest Missouri early Monday morning as
the aforementioned warm front lifts northeastward.

Given the level of low-level jet energy (reaching 40 to 50+ kts)
and the high CAPE values nosing in aloft, the rainfall rates are
likely to be rather high, and capable reaching well into the 1 to
2 inch/hour range. This is generally supported by the 00Z HREF
guidance, and especially recent HRRR runs. Alignment of the
convection with the deeper layer westerly flow suggests a
favorable environment for cell-training.

The overall consensus of the CAM guidance would favor 2 to 4 inch
rainfall totals with locally higher amounts possible going through
the predawn hours. A concern will exist for urban flash flooding
over the next several hours going through early Monday morning.
Some areas that may see impacts will include the urban corridor
from Manhattan through Topeka and the Kansas City metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ASARoRq9Kw1WBYaLM81msO1W3Seni468uazA5s_h98oCspoXsKP1MqJ3uxOyuzvamTx= Ggq5WNHlCMehUFVCuCF3aro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40249349 39989238 39429199 38939253 38399439=20
38179626 38319799 38709869 39199870 39649764=20
39979620 40169497=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270940
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271535-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast and East-Central KS...Central and
Northern MO...West-Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270937Z - 271535Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely going through the morning
hours from locally training thunderstorms that will be capable of
producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier totals will be
possible by midday, with a threat for locally significant urban
flash flooding impacts as a result.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a well-defined axis
of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of northern
and eastern KS, with activity very quickly advancing into
northwest MO. This includes the Topeka and Kansas City
metropolitan areas. Deep convection with cold convective tops as
low as -70C are noted across the region, and the activity is
exhibiting several overshooting tops which is indicative of
particularly strong convective updrafts and enhanced rain rates.

The activity continues to advance generally off to the east in
association with an ejecting shortwave trough across western and
central KS with excellent divergence aloft working in tandem with
a southwest low-level jet of 50 to 60 kts around the southeast
flank of multiple waves of surface low pressure. These ejecting
waves of low pressure are helping to channel enhanced moisture and
instability transport across eastern KS and into western and
northern MO as a warm front gradually gains latitude downstream
across central MO and southern IL.

MUCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs locally as
high as about 1.5 inches across eastern KS and nosing through
northern MO. This favorable thermodynamic environment coupled with
enhanced kinematic wind fields/shear will strongly support a
continuation of organized MCS activity traversing the Lower MO
Valley this morning with convection likely becoming more
concentrated by mid-morning across north-central MO and eventually
into areas of west-central IL.

Rainfall rates will easily be into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range, and
with an excellent cell-training environment, some additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts
will be possible. Flash flooding is already occurring over parts
of east-central and northeast KS through west-central MO including
the Topeka and Kansas City metropolitan areas. Additional rounds
of heavy rainfall over the next couple of hours here will support
the potential for significant urban flash flooding impacts.

Areas downstream across north-central MO and eventually
west-central IL will likely see the threat for at least some flash
flooding increase through the morning hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!66y8OBhaLeMgVBXpqi8DQMipRKbuYpDzNqw7oHVGloPDpxjTclEv-g8PmUDU_qnTar1B= XVoSaeMuRfh-HxGzh4KmGj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40489182 40358991 39618884 38658930 38359141=20
38249425 38349620 38679675 39239685 39759618=20
40149478 40369334=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271447
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central Illinois through Greater St. Louis into
Indiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271445Z - 272045Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding threat continues to progress east across
Illinois through midday with a risk for training thunderstorms
that produce 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates. Rainfall totals of 2
to 3 inches with isolated heavier totals are possible through the
afternoon, with a threat for locally significant urban flash
flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined bowing line of thunderstorms with
areas with rates up to 1.5"/hr is pushing into central Illinois
with a tail extending to west-central Missouri. This is generally
north of the St. Louis metropolitan area, but impacts will
eventually reach there today. Scattered prefrontal activity from
central to southern Illinois will also continue to develop and
shift northeast.

The activity is ahead of a shortwave trough over central KS with
excellent divergence aloft working in tandem with a southwesterly
low-level jet of 45 to 55 kts ahead of the surface low center near
the KS/MO border. Enhanced moisture and instability continues to
flow across southern MO and IL.

MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PW around 1.5 inches
across up the mid-Miss Valley. This favorable thermodynamic
environment coupled with enhanced kinematic wind fields/shear will
strongly support a continuation of organized MCS activity across
central IL with the right tail laying down near I-70/St. Louis.

Rainfall rates will remain in the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with
localized additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches. The
progression of the system has recluded further flash flood
warnings over eastern MO into IL, but given increasing coverage in
central IL and the right flank laying down orthogonal to the
inflow will be the focus for flash flooding in addition to urban
areas.

This activity will progress into Indiana this afternoon and
further discussions are likely.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9SHhxJT_jN2-DO0zt70zh1rRab8y-4DUoh6jQXRFeyBSIikyzuH8Z0CGHa2s22PSm0gj= Jpfy_XDW1aSxsG6meub3gMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LOT...LSX...
PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41248926 41218700 40118643 38998649 38228721=20
37888830 38178932 38189029 37849235 38059308=20
38439333 38899204 39359064 40089034 40959066=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271857
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern IND...Southeast IL...Northwest KY...
Bootheel of MO...Extreme Western OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271900Z - 280030Z

SUMMARY...Weakening of initial MCS and flanking WAA cells in the
Lower Ohio River Valley. Rates up to 1.5"/hr and stripes of 2-3"
still pose possible localized flash flooding concerns through
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible loop denote a
decaying MCS continuing to advance eastward recently crossing the
central IND/IL border. Though the MCV is shearing to the
northeast in a degrading stratiform region, the southeast flank
remains fairly active with a few scattered individual cells
extending southward from the elevated warm front moving across the
Ohio River proper. VWP still depicts strong low level southerly
flow veering to southwest through S IL with 40-50kts through 700mb
providing the advection of the higher theta-E air over the stable
(reinforced by morning cloudy conditions) over south-central to
southeast IND.

Still,the higher moisture availability along with building sharp
MUCAPE gradient to 500-2000 J/kg advecting northeast to help
maintain these cells; through strengthening is probably a bit more
limited. There remain strong flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates with occasional localized peaks to near 2". Combine these
rates with a slightly flattening of the convective line to the
deep mean steering flow should still support localized 2-3"
streaks through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Strong
upstream convergence would also support flanking
cell/back-building environment to further increase overall
coverage of thunderstorm activity...particularly across S IND and
far the Ohio River counties of northwest KY.

Relative soil moisture values are slightly below average and FFG
values reflect this slightly higher requirement for exceedance and
result in flash flooding to be considered possible and localized,
though intersection with any urban center would increase this
potential.

Upstream shortwave will result in an additional line of strong convection/thunderstorm activity that will pose a higher potential
for flash flooding into the overnight period; so even if this
round doesn't result in flooding, it will saturate the upper soils
likely to increase runoff problems. As such, please keep
weather-wise to local WFO warnings and advisory and subsequent
MPDs later this evening.

...MO Bootheel/S IL...
Deeper in the warm sector across the Tri-River Confluence area,
instability has built to over 3000 J/kg given temps nearing
mid-80s and Tds into the low 70s. Capping will likely limit
convective development, but Hi-Res CAMS still suggest isolated
broader updraft cores. Departure from steering of exiting MCS
influence and upstream height-falls over IA, leaves steering flow
a bit reduced and muddled to allow for slower motions perhaps with
some weak updraft rotation to further deflect forward propagation.
Any cells that can form in this regime will have solid capability
of 2"/hr rates give 1.5-1.75" total PWat and confluent low level
flux convergence if they do develop. As such, quick compiling
could be an issue given hourly FFG values of 1.5-2" and
2-3.5"/3hrs and may also result in a possible incident or two
localized flash flooding before cold frontal line later into the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BM7XiGh5nW6vF2CTMkPjRTSCsscWaLSbEvHhHDU4XFRRrOaiqSgEmaxEDU2zQBLglRP= CI3del5BhrzAEAXL7d0FoQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40658478 39888425 38948457 38378532 37978609=20
37288766 36808856 36288976 36629045 37328982=20
38198890 38778835 40028703 40548594=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271958
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southern Illinois and Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272000Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Repeating Thunderstorms capable of 3-6" totals across
portions of Southern IL. More scattered, less efficient cells
upstream may repeat across saturated grounds in the Ozark Plateau
with more localized/scattered flash flooding likely too.

DISCUSSION...The environmental setup looks conducive for repeating
rounds of thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern
Missouri into south-central IL through the evening into early
overnight period, prolonging the potential for flash flooding
condtions. A well-defined thermal boundary extends across central
MO from near Fort Scott, KS to south of Jefferson City to near St.
Louis, in response to this morning's MCS. Temperatures have
returned to the low 80s with low 70s Tds in the lower elevations
surrounding the Ozarks, with upper 60s Tds within the Plateau.=20
However, CIRA LPW denotes, the core of the warm conveyor belt has
translated across SE MO into S IL responding to the initial
short-wave that sparked the MCS last night that has exited into
the Great Lakes Region. The main upper-level trof and
height-falls are starting to advance eastward over the
Upper-Midwest and broader LLJ has backed to southerly in response;
though a dry-slot can be seen nosing into from the SW over NE OK
into SW OK. As such, a very unstable environment with MLCAPEs to
3000 J/kg extends the length of the frontal zone with bimodal
strong sfc to boundary layer moisture convergence maxima along the
western end near the advancing northern stream cold
front/height-falls in KS and along the warm conveyor belt from
St.Louis to the old MCS squall line in SW IND.

Reduced moisture into the upstream cells near the cold front will
help reduce overall rates and while the updrafts will support more
severe signatures of hail, winds and possible tornadoes (see SPC
MCD 572), the compromised soils from the heavy rainfall last night
2-5" have reduced FFG values to less than 1.5"/hr and broadly less
than 2"/3hrs across much of the MO portion of the MPD. So
accompanying the severe, will be solid moisture flux to support
hourly rates of 1.5"/hr with much coming in sub-hourly
time-frames. So flash flooding is likely along and south of the
front especially between I-70 and I-44, though may be more
localized and these isolated totals should be less than 3".

Downstream, ongoing strong thunderstorms are intersecting the
45-50kt SWly LLJ within the core of the warm conveyor belt/q-axis
through the Mississippi River Valley. some post-MCS recovery has
resulted in elevated MUCAPE back to 2500 J/kg and convection is
once again expanding along the convergence line from the old MCS
cold pool back along the remaining thermal boundary. Flux
convergence will support rates up to 2"/hr though WoFS 5-min and
HRRR 15-min totals suggest most will be sub-hourly in the cores of
the broader downdrafts, with max values of .4-.5" and 1.25-1.4"
respectively. Deep layer steering the wake of the inital
shortwave and the relatively digging upstream shortwave support
flow that is fairly parallel to the boundary with some
south-southeast forward propagation with time. As such, a
prolonged training/repeat environment is developing across the
eastern portion of the MPD generally along and just south of I-70.
Hi-Res CAMS including the HRRR and WoFS support areas of 3-5"
with above average confidence particulalry further east, though
the more rapidly refreshing solutions show a southward trend
consistent with current Vis, RADAR loops. WoFS forecast mean
around 4" and 90th percentile near 6" is a solid range though 00z;
with a line of 2-3" back toward St. Louis ans the cold front fills
in with another round. These totals are likely to result in flash
flooding this evening into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aWbu-ODH-Z-xIypGr_plPoXuzgvV27KplbdkmEpfRI3JIx56NWGYHNxRheEHzARg7wF= 6PDpCniPq67qjBNYitr3lsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39718957 39718841 39448778 38758767 38188820=20
37878902 37669009 37509105 37369209 37339298=20
37429453 38239463 38619417 39499140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272137
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast IL...Far Northeast MO...Far
Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272140Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection with capability of 1.5"/hr rates and
totals up to 2.5" due to short-term repeating across recently
saturated/low FFG soils pose possible localized flash flooding
risk, especially near prone urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV shows shortwave at the base of mean longwave
trough over the NEB/IA/MO/KS intersection lifting northeast
providing solid DPVA along and downstream in northern MO. Low
level jet response has been to lift the old outflow boundary/front
northward over the last few hours with solid boundary layer WAA
confluent along the upwind edge of a old surface pressure
trough/convergence axis from Keokuk north through SW WI. As such,
theta-E ascent along with some insolation recovery over central IL
has seen a narrow wedge of increasing MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg
into far NE MO along the pressure trough but well ahead of the
approaching cold front. Southeasterly surface flow with Tds in
the the low 60s combined with the southerly 925-850mb proving
sufficient moisture flux as well to feed developing thunderstorms
along this axis.=20

Hi-Res CAMs including the 18z Nam-Nest have shown a steady
increasing trend to convective vigor and coverage into central IL
toward the evening. Rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected given the
strengthening moisture flux convergence in the sharpening
deformation zone/north of the main front ahead of the height-fall
maximum. Cells will be faster moving along the nose of the 110kt
jet streak but should be aligned for an hour or so, before
eastward propagation stops the short-term training. Short-term
totals should be 1-1.5" but in these streaks of short-term core
training (especially over the next few hours), a spot or two of
2.5" could be possible. Overall, the grounds had lower FFG due to
higher seasonal rains, but this morning's MCS helped to saturate
the upper soils, so capacity is slightly reduced. FFG values of
1-1.5"/hr and less than 2"/3hr (especially further south across
central IL) remain possible to be exceeded over the next few
hours. Additionally, there is a lower possibility that cells may
maintain or build far enough north before the height-falls/cold
front wash over that sub-urban and southern Chicagoland may see
these quick hitting sub-hourly 1"+ totals, which has typically
been an issue for urban flooding as well.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ELlyUm2NjQ_I-_GsHCFMVuqWEqlwknvPVl0At1OkAjcVlkn4QobN80G9Bp10dA5l_1N= gVBeHe0ciysiWJHicAtw5zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42058784 41588676 40918642 40278668 39628790=20
39538839 39449018 39319217 40639101 41588936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280030
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Central & Southern
Indiana...Northwest Kentucky...Ext. Southwest Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280030Z - 280630Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing isentropic ascent over saturated areas for a few
more hours before cold front convection rolls through with an an
additional 1-2" in hour for localized pockets of additional 2-4"
totals. Scattered localized incidents of flash flooding likely to
continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis continues to show broad SSWly
flow through the MS Valley intersecting a well defined and
deepening cold pool from the prolonged MCS from last evening. The
outflow boundary extends from south of CVG to SDF before
intersecting the stationary front/effective warm front northeast
of Evansville, IND. The warm front has slowly shifted eastward
out of the MS Valley and generally in the vicinity of the
Tennessee River. A 999mb surface just moved through the St. Louis
Metro as the cold front is starting to surge eastward under the
influence of the strong height-falls from the shortwave across
northern MO at this time. As such, the LLJ has responded by
broadening with VWP denoted 40-50kts of SSW intersecting the old
outflow. East toward the outflow boundary, the instability is
reduced just east and cells have fractured though still remain on
a fairly favorable west to east repeating orientation across SW
IND into NW KY near Louisville. Core of the warm conveyor
belt/q-axis is aligned here with TPW values remaining above 1.5",
with maximized values near 1.75" along the Wabash. As such, these
cells remain fairly efficient occasionally reaching 2"/hr though
1.5" seems to be average, though with some southward propagation
of the cold pool, the overlap with areas flooded earlier this
evening is decreasing resulting in a broader area of 2-4" totals,
which is at or just above 1 to 3hr FFG values suggesting flooding
is likely to continue locally, particularly in/near urban centers
due to broad areas of hydrophobic surfaces.

Upstream, the instability axis remains west of the moisture axis,
due to slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates/intrusion of
mid-level EML across SW to east-central MO. MLCAPEs of 2500 J/kg
nose toward the surface low and frontal zone across S IL with 3500
J/kg values upstream in SE MO to feed increased convective
activity along the front. As such, convergence is maximized near
the surface wave and stationary boundary and will likely maintain stronger/broader updrafts capable of highly efficient rainfall
production. However, deep layer steering due to the height-falls,
mid-level stronger jet has been and will reduce residency time and
limit additional rainfall totals to 1-2", likely in 30 to 60
minutes as the track through the saturated areas of south-central
IL and eventually intersection with the ongoing west to east
repeating cells and saturated areas of Southern IND. The
quickness of rates/totals will more likely further expand any
ongoing flooded areas, with some spots receiving up to an
additional 4"+ through 06z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KNIAifvnIXx1Byaywpt-fsTJkLkuReKRQVvn4nVPGbAODsYBnBx59QQpmYyt-g-gXqN= KeEzzY-iithZeJgeeKbfjMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40258674 40238524 39498436 38508404 37858439=20
37218647 36698861 37268959 38588882 39388815=20
39918738=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280138
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest Arkansas...Far
Northwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280140Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Slow right moving supercells with very high moisture
flux and capability of 2-2.5"/hr rates pose highly localized 2-4"
streaks capable of localized flash flooding in early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Surface and CIRA Sfc-850 LPW show a very moist
boundary layer with a surge of Gulf moisture reaching the Red
River though eastern TX with Tds in the middle 70s with a few
upper 70s values dotted across. A dry line bulge exists across
south-central OK with a surface wave near KSRE and the cold front
slowly sagging southward across central to northeast OK. With
loss of day-time heating/mixing, the dry line is already starting
to retrograde as surface winds back to south and southeast in NE
TX providing the convergence necessary to break the stronger cap
near and northeast of the Dallas metro area in the last few hours.
A few cells further north with reduced convergence, weakened, but
now the the updrafts are established with ample rotation, the
moisture flux is likely sufficient to maintain these cells.
MLCAPEs of 4500 J/kg will keep updrafts strong to maintain
increased isallobaric inflow.

Additionally, given the stronger updraft rotation, cell motions
are also going to decrease supporting increased residency of the
cells. Currently, hail production has been dominant, but KDP
signals have shown heavy rainfall production is starting to be
more focused as well for the pair of right mover in Rockwall and
Hopkins county.=20

Given the strong inflow of those 70s Tds and overall TPW to 1.75",
rates of 2-2.5"/hr are possible, especially as the updrafts
broaden the overall profile moistens. As such, localized 3-4"
totals are considered possible. While FFG values are naturally
high and soils are dry, that means they are fairly hard as well,
reducing uptake of the amount of water at that rate, suggesting
localized flash flooding/rapid inundation ponding in urban areas
is considered possible overnight.=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uosHqGob-xjnGhbejXdEU3F7-7NlQfzF9s2CorLea9v0kO_jK6X2iAtxeYlLFGpo4Ki= v2gihXiT9rQgN1j4le0_Dvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33759449 33559344 32999304 32419346 32289498=20
32299563 32409658 32879705 33439661 33709572=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281525
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...north-central MS into central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 282030Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms are expected for
portions of north-central MS into central AL through the early
afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will occur (locally
higher values possible) within areas of training with localized
flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1510Z across northern MS and
north-central AL showed scattered thunderstorms located north of
an outflow boundary that stretched from near GWO to TCL to EUF.
The western end of the ouflow boundary has been nearly stationary
over the past few hours and 0-1 km AGL winds were from the SSW at
15-20 kt, overrunning the outflow boundary and allowing for some
very brief training and peak hourly rainfall up to ~1 inch at
times. Aloft, flow was diffluent, helping to support broader scale
ascent across the region. 12Z soundings from FFC to BMX to JAN
showed that MUCAPE varied across the South, with MUCAPE values
increasing toward the west with 1500-2000 J/kg at JAN.

Recent forecasts from the RAP do not show any significant changes
to elevated instability values from MS into AL through 21Z but do
show the low level flow weakening and veering a bit. Therefore, it
is unclear how much upstream development will continue but there
will continue to be some degree of overrunning and likely upstream
thunderstorm development for at least the next 2-4 hours, aided by
subtle impulses aloft within the WSW mid-level flow. There will be
the potential for repeating cells and training along and north of
the outflow boundary with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and
localized 3 to 4+ inch totals within 2 to 3 hours, possibly
leading to localized flash flooding. Largely dry antecedent
conditions may limit any flash flooding to urban or otherwise
sensitive locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vGPCOKiulQUd15Il53z5GxqSm1yeN7rH_TetrmvIGmf_YUMQdaF-iv9DWHNJB-L9jAs= RDtpHjlAvUBA874txxJ0VI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34488940 34228763 33688616 32828591 32308649=20
32258763 32918901 33409048 34089045=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281834
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern OK/northeastern TX into southern
AR/northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281832Z - 290015Z

SUMMARY...An increase in the coverage of thunderstorms is expected
across portions of southeastern OK/northern-northeastern TX into
southern AR/northern LA through the afternoon. Repeating and brief
training of heavy rain could result in isolated 3 to 5 inch totals
within a 2 to 3 hours window along with flash flooding, although
any coverage of these higher rainfall values should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations helped place a
quasi-stationary front from a low near the Red River, northwest of
SPS, east-northeastward into central AR. The environment along and
south of the front was very unstable with MLCAPE of 2500 to 4000+
J/kg via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Scattered thunderstorms were
ongoing along and north of the front from south-central MO into
western and southern AR, with motions averaging 30-40 kt toward
the ENE. It was relatively quiet to the west but upstream, water
vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough axis over the southern TX
Panhandle with movement approaching the Red River. Visible imagery
showed the early stages of convective development ahead of the
dryline and near the stationary front ahead of the Red River
surface low.

Additional thunderstorm development within the unstable airmass is
likely over the next few hours as upstream energy interacts with
numerous boundaries (including an outflow boundary currently
between the DFW Metroplex and the Red River) and the unstable
environment where CIN is continuing to decrease with daytime
heating. Sufficient shear exists for organized cells, with
supercells and multicells containing movement from the W or WSW.
While the general movement of most cells should be progressive
toward the east, there is potential for some localized upstream
redevelopment and brief training which could result in 1 to 2
in/hr rates and 3 to 5 inch totals on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bGaOFFGjC6XB_HKwCI2eTopET_qfHn6SCXLfVcbDxgy9iAvjk0ir3l3fMI5jxzdH5H4= DSxNWgGytZKGc1DZrIrWe7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449344 34919229 34009119 33359107 32789167=20
32099310 31649567 31949757 32789856 33479896=20
34219876 34709773 34929555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282031
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Western & Middle TN...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Eastern AR...Southwest KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282030Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Congealing clusters with rates of 2"/hr to have widely
scattered to scattered 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs posing possible
localized incident or two of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis and 10.3um EIR loops along with regional
RADAR composite, denotes the scattered clusters of thunderstorms
are starting to congeal across eastern AR with merging
up/downdraft structures. Overshooting top/billowing anvils are
denote the modest upper-level divergence in the area along the
southern split in the polar (right exit)/subtropical jet. This is
supporting accelerating low-level flow with confluence in boundary
layer though the MS River Valley. Within this low level advection
regime, surface Tds in the mid-70s and CIRA LPW core of sfc-850mb
moisture near .75-1" value across southern AR should be advected
well into the complex increasing efficiency with time. As such,
the expansion coverage of ascent is increasing sufficiently to
support broadening 1.75-2"/hr rates, with some overall residency
time to likely support some localized 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs.=20
Downstream instability pool of 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
help to maintain/expand the complex across western TN into middle
TN with some possible southward building into N MS given the
favorable moisture environment further south as well.=20

Hydrologically, the grounds remain very hard and dry with RSM
0-40cm values around or below 30%. This hardness given the
magnitude of rates will be less absorptive at least initially,
that runoff should be higher than would be expected in such
drought conditions. Additionally, the FFG values across much of
TN are 1.5-2"/hr and generally 2-3" so widely scattered to
scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered possible
given the expected 2"/hr rates and spots up to 3.5". Obviously,
intersection with urban settings would further increase the
probability of localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mxcq72tpRSbVi7H-XJMWjSBLC6IGrpesCWwJmoE1oRh0KDjI0fujRI8x9LPHEgnO0oo= x2yhA74l2HC9WH1KV5QFRo4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36948711 36878647 36488589 35678617 35148675=20
34748778 34358945 34269016 34439090 35259095=20
35849076 36268997 36698868=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282055
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Central Mississippi...Central Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282055Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Expanding Complex of Thunderstorms with capability of
2"/hr rates approaching areas saturated this morning, as well as,
lingering scattered activity

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and 20z surface observations show
stabilized area and remnant outflow boundary across south-central
AL from KEUF to KTOI to KPRN that is starting to angle more
northwest to due north just west of the MS/AL line from KMEI to
KLMS to KSTF. Broad southwesterly low-level flow has be weak but
sufficient to maintain scattered thunderstorm activity along the
edge of this meso-high/stabilized area, but recent uptick in wind
along the upwind edge from the south and southwest to 30kts has
increased convergence and isentropic ascent to break out further
convection mainly on the SW edge toward Meridian, MS toward N
Clarke/Wilcox county in AL. Deep layer steering will keep them in line/parallel to the boundary to support some possible
training/repeating in proximity to areas affected by the initial
thunderstorm line earlier today.=20=20

However, further upstream; a strong divergence signal aloft in a
split between the polar/sub-tropical upper-level jets has migrated
eastward across the MS River and scattered thunderstorms have
started to congeal/expand into a larger complex over west-central
MS. Pooled moisture along the old outflow boundary as well as
increased values from further west (noted in CIRA LPW) show above
average moisture of sfc Tds in the low 70s, but overall TPWs
reaching near 2". This along with sufficient moisture flux
convergence should support rates of 2"/hr. The progressive nature
to the east should limit overall totals to 2-3.5" which given
recent drought and naturally higher FFG values are close but just
below exceedance. However, this morning has reduced some values
especially in proximity to Chickasaw to Noxubee counties in MS and
into Pickens county in AL which reduced to below 3" in 6hrs and
about 1.25-2"/hr; suggesting a slightly better chance of possible
flash flooding across that portion of the MPD. Overall, isolated
to widely scattered incidents of flash flooding will be possible
where repeating or slightly longer residency can occur likely to
storm-scale interactions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DYK6FGXdhXvSsgnqzGInQx2eAKE7jL1JNVI7BRx2y3bOBisQalNnQIFnSwAY9yu1Cbi= 743yq2pVYVFafXCMrWsac2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34328910 34058786 33248605 32498521 31818537=20
31648627 31658732 31778863 31928947 32119028=20
32449078 33049105 33799089 34259020=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290033
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290030Z - 290600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage with strengthening of the
low-level jet, ample moisture and occasional training/repeating
elements support rates up to 2+"/hr locally and widely scattered
spots of 2-4" inducing possible incident(s) of flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad diffluence between the
split in the polar jet (which is deflecting northward through the
Ohio Valley) and the sub-tropical jet that is diving south across
E TX. This has supported some broad ascent and favorable
vorticity development across E AR in the mid-levels to support a
weak surface wave and northward warm-advective shift across
northern AR. LLJ continues to increase in speed and is utilizing
the western fridge of a shallow outflow that has been reinforced
by multiple rounds of convection across N MS today. Deep layer
moisture is pooled along that outflow boundary and is providing
solid flux to developing storms. However, RAP analysis shows
increasing capping across S AR with a remaining weakly capped or
uncapped area of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across north-central AR
angling southwest into NW MS attm. As such, increasing activity
is utilizing the buoyancy and divergence aloft to expand in
coverage and rainfall efficiency.

Overall deep layer moisture is at or around 2" and given the
vertical ascent capability and overall low level moisture
convergence/flux should support rates of similar values (2"/hr).=20
The limiting factor is the residency of any given cell, will be
limited due to east to east-southeast cell motions and forward
propagation. Orientation of the convective cells may allow for
some short-term training, but overall cells will be repeating
through areas that may have seen one or two earlier rounds today
with streaks of 1-3" locally. So an additional potential for 2-3"
with a worst case 4" total, is in line with or slightly exceeds
the FFG values in the area of concern. As such, a widely
scattered incident or two of flash flooding remains possible
through the overnight period as the wave/divergence maxima slides
eastward into the Delta Region and eventually N MS/AL, though
instability will be steadily reducing with time and therefore
overall coverage and intensity should follow.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-CTkPKTremPgq0Snm9Zw_rkJMeDN_-_PBaLeBsmdx_ic-RaVtzMST6TGUxvL9an3ivjo= nCJuMme4tzbY_ob9ji78_LY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35879144 35759006 35528911 35158827 34788758=20
34248684 33328717 32928777 32868882 33469023=20
34119139 34779289 35609302 35839249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290532
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-291130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AR...Central and Northern MS...Central
and Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290530Z - 291130Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to advance east across large areas of the Mid-South
overnight. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected and
some cell-training may result in additional localized swaths of 2
to 4 inches of rain by dawn. This will foster additional concerns
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially
around the more sensitive urban corridors.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
substantial cold-topped convective mass continuing to advance
gradually east across large areas of the Mid-South, with an
emphasis on southeast AR through central and northern MS, and also
adjacent areas of central and northern AL. All of this is
associated with the ejection of multiple waves of surface low
pressure out of the Lower MS Valley and toward the OH Valley as a
well-defined shortwave trough crosses the region.

Favorable upper-jet dynamics along with the nose of a convergent
30 to 40 kt low-level jet will continue to favor areas of locally
organized convection through the predawn hours across especially
northern MS and portions of central and northern AL. MUCAPE values
are highest across southeast AR through northern MS with values of
1500 to 2500 J/kg in place, and this coupled with PWs near 1.75
inches will favor high rainfall rates capable of reaching well
into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range. Effective bulk shear values of
locally over 50 kts remain in place based on the latest RAP
analysis and this should continue to favor multicells and some
supercell thunderstorms in the near-term that will contain these
enhanced rainfall rates.

The nose of the low-level jet should increase the moisture and
instability transport along with a corridor of well-defined
isentropic ascent across central and northern AL, so some of the
heavier rainfall may tend to focus across these areas over the
next few hours. In fact, the cloud top temperatures currently over
northwest AL are as cold as -70C, and thus indicative of strong
vertical velocities with enhanced thermodynamic forcing.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected where
any cell-training occurs. Given that some areas of have already
seen heavy rainfall, the additional rains will certainly continue
to support a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. The more sensitive urban corridors will also be at risk
for seeing impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5JHa6Gfbv3mZTTfrUFAUl9DFKc1XRjn5u6KgiYIiKuHziyi64waYSxe59MLWRtLFM-Z= F_yCGuPILJpfb6dRdQ20l2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34658825 34618704 34538615 34228559 33618527=20
32888545 32388644 32588849 33159031 33639217=20
34099237 34419113 34558971=20

=3D =3D =3D
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