ACUS11 KWNS 272159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272159=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...parts of northeast IA into far southeast MN and
southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272159Z - 272330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are expected to develop
east/northeast through the late afternoon and evening hours. The
strong storms may produce marginal hail and locally gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a surface
cold front and near the surface low across southeast MN into
northeast IA. A modestly unstable (MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg)
airmass resides downstream where upper 50s dewpoints and
temperatures generally in the 60s are noted. Forecast soundings and
SPC Mesoanalysis indicates midlevel lapse rates are generally weak
across MN and western WI, with some improvement with southward
extent into eastern IA. This thermodynamic environment could sustain
a few stronger storms within a modestly sheared environment. The
stronger storms will pose a risk for hail generally in the 0.50-1.00
inch range, along with locally gusty winds. Overall severe threat
appears limited by the modest thermodynamic environment and a watch
is not currently expected.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Egf_-W_Ed0rF4ufpq5sZeQnk65j00EBnKRnc5siTTz9BtGt-Vcw55QzaJHuCah63FlL0hSLc= IR4JeKKDfYPNTrv94E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42789236 43549254 43789264 44099240 44439159 44609044
44589006 44498968 44148921 43738903 43208915 42768945
42279072 42079119 42019171 42069202 42169217 42659234
42789236=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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