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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 27 23:18:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 272318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272318=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0579
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

    Areas affected...southern IL...far southeast MO...eastern
    KY...northwest TN

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...

    Valid 272318Z - 280045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of WW 162.
    Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts remain
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and a few towering cumulus are noted
    in GOES-16 DCP imagery recently. A couple of towers now have
    lightning occurring over far southern IL. This activity is occurring
    within an axis of strong instability (2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The
    VWP from KPAH also shows wind profiles favorable for supercells with
    strong tornado potential, indicated by enlarged, looping low-level
    hodographs and 0-1 km SRH over 250 m2/s2. Additional strengthening
    of the nocturnal low-level jet is expected over the next couple of
    hours. In tandem, forcing for ascent should increase across portions
    of WW 162. This may support additional supercell
    development/strengthening of current convective attempts in the
    short term. Any storms the develop could strengthen and organize
    quickly, posing a risk for very large hail and strong to intense
    tornadoes.

    ..Leitman.. 04/27/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8w0JeklB4XCU6NJfyN9VyAEsdFmu9bV58orRCl6gHhM20IV4-iNZgP1BpcJ4ZvSPVB55gNe1L= N-oDc3wEnXjMq9GX30$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38268886 38208830 38038792 37768768 36968762 35868811
    35238829 35038869 35008966 35059057 35189086 35749078
    36219050 37259002 37698973 38128958 38268886=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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