ACUS11 KWNS 280009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280009=20
KYZ000-INZ000-280145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central IN into central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 280009Z - 280145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase this evening
across central Indiana into central Kentucky. A watch will be needed
soon.

DISCUSSION...A messy convective evolution is occurring across the
region this evening. Strong to severe storms near the OH River in
southern IN/north-central KY have left a relative minimum in MLCAPE
to the north, though MUCAPE and moderate vertical shear remain
sufficient for severe storms across the area. Some improvement of
the boundary layer could occur with time as warm advection and a
strengthening low-level jet overspread the region. However, it
remains unclear how much of a tornado risk may accompany the QLCS
shifting east across IL as it impinges on this more marginal and
convectively contaminated environment. Given an influx of better
upstream moisture with time and a favorable kinematic environment,
one or more watches are likely across the region.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Hmpj8JHmrnL5V--CVt4X2g0hLogqST5kbGgqfk_mEVfq4bqg_Ad9WAyw9h00Mp3yemmMACj1= B4AnKJMN-ZwEanQiQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...

LAT...LON 40598751 40408581 39868541 38808466 38028459 37558488
37318580 37718654 38578712 39238748 40598751=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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