ACUS11 KWNS 280309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280309=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...and far
western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...166...

Valid 280309Z - 280515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162, 166 continues.

SUMMARY...A transition to a mix of convective modes is ongoing.
While the potential for severe hail may be decreasing, the threat
for tornadoes and severe winds continues.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity data shows gradual upscale growth
across north-central AR as new convection develops along a cold
front. Initially semi-discrete supercells across southern MO have
recently shown some signs of weakening and/or poor organization -
likely the result of being displaced behind an outflow boundary,
which is becoming more apparent in velocity imagery. Further
southwest, convective clusters and semi-discrete supercells continue
to develop across north-central AR.

This activity continues to spread east into a very favorable
environment for organized convection with KLZK and KNQA VWPs now
sampling 0-1 km SRH between 450-500 m2/s2. The loss of discrete
supercells should modulate the potential for very large hail to some
degree, but even with a transition to a mix of convective bands and
embedded supercells, the environment will support the potential for
tornadoes (potentially strong) and swaths of severe winds. Latest
high-res guidance, including recent WoFS ensemble runs, suggest that
the greatest tornado/severe wind threat will reside across northern
AR and southeast MO into adjacent portions of IL, TN, and KY over
the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NNsAQpTUC3u-MEWnudZ2WaSjHmeHePfnDoZERhIfcRFrXoy4dhjVOrw8CeW4YQxjpM-UnP9n= CJpa9-BcTRIeWayo20$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 35589323 35979196 36579075 37248981 37388945 37428916
37348889 37138874 36748881 36338905 36068936 35848966
35589025 35459097 35319285 35329311 35489325 35589323=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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