ACUS11 KWNS 281433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281433=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-281630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas into
central and southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

Valid 281433Z - 281630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
across the discussion area this morning with all severe-weather
hazards becoming possible. Convective trends are being monitored for
an additional downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...As of 14:20z, mosaic radar data showed thunderstorms
gradually increasing in coverage across south-central OK and
north-central TX with the strongest storm being a supercell over
Montague County, TX. That storm is located very near or just to the
south of a warm front that extends from low pressure over western
north Texas east-northeast into central AR. The south of that
boundary, visible satellite shows deepening moist convection near
and to the southeast of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex. The 12z FWD
sounding sampled a very moist boundary layer surmounted by steep
mid-level lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 3500 J/kg. The cap was not
overly strong, and latest model guidance suggests a gradual increase
in thunderstorm activity this morning from the vicinity of the
ongoing storms over south-central OK and north-central TX eastward
toward the ArkLaTex.

Regional 12z soundings sampled the presence of strong,
mid/upper-level winds, which will combine with the moderate to
strong instability to support higher-order storm modes, including
supercells and bowing structures capable of large to very large hail
and damaging winds as the primary hazards. The greatest potential
for a few tornadoes will exist with storms that can favorably
interact with the warm front in the area.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QxyPmlxvrrDJzVVA5ID23e0OgQvjD9-5dDQrLEeDs2fRyWBJthH9Ftw6U9OCKiIkfHgM6_98= XA_NDKrfP5vTJ36gYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33969822 35109776 34979227 34469194 33739182 32829211
32849425 33029630 33259750 33489807 33969822=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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