ACUS11 KWNS 281502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281501=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri and
northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 281501Z - 281700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in
areal coverage across the discussion area this morning. Large hail
will be the primary hazard initially, with damaging wind potential
increasing this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely
be required to address this severe weather threat.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually
increasing in coverage across portions of eastern OK, driven largely
by a low-level warm advection regime occurring to the north of a
surface boundary stalled across southeast OK into central AR. RAP
proximity soundings suggest the developing storms are rooted in a
moist layer centered around 850 mb, with steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.

Water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough moving into
western KS this morning with an area of downstream, implied forcing
for ascent progressively overspreading the discussion area over the
next several hours. That combined with the available reservoir of
moderate, elevated instability, and relatively strong cloud-bearing
shear will support the potential for elevated supercells capable of
large hail initially. Some cloud breaks (evident in visible
satellite) may allow for a subset of the elevated storms to become surface-based by afternoon, at which point, a damaging wind threat
would increase.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9zQ7B_LARLLGzZWY1Vc-vb1nlH7A9beOafRJ9zW46i5uiHsBkm2g3KXwLUhk6l1que4m3hcvg= s6P6mzaQXYw34BmBkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35769576 36959488 37869282 37869097 36649096 36149149
35549395 35169505 35769576=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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