ACUS11 KWNS 281919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281918=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...northeast Arkansas into west Tennessee and north
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 281918Z - 282015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms is expected to develop across
western parts of the discussion area by 21z. All severe-weather
hazards appear possible. A WW is likely.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms are
ongoing across central and northern Arkansas as of 19z, generally
along and to the north of a warm front lifting north through the
area. While widespread clouds have limited daytime heating over
northeast AR into western TN, the presence of a very moist boundary
layer is resulting in estimated MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg.=20

Latest model data suggests that the ongoing storms will continue to
intensify as they spread east and encounter the increasingly
unstable air mass in place across the discussion area. While the
current KNQA VWP indicates relatively weak winds in the lowest 4 km,
the upstream KLZK VWP shows much stronger flow through that layer,
which will spread east into the area later this afternoon. Given the
degree of instability in place, the setup appears supportive of
embedded supercell and bowing structures capable of all
severe-weather hazards.

..Mead/Guyer.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6b7lPbAMZvZdBuREoHoy8V5imv5gYCzkajROcFXPMkyyvq2y7GNSXVUXXhts9hYkCMyxcOk_r= YhSOtsWJkb5c9KJPdE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 34479094 35479092 36079068 36468909 36388824 35588822
34688878 34168927 34039040 34479094=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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