ACUS11 KWNS 282118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282118=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast Oklahoma into
southern/central Missouri and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169...172...

Valid 282118Z - 282245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 169, 172
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 169 and 172, with large hail and occasional damaging/severe
wind gusts the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorms have largely decreased in
intensity across much of WW169 over the past hour, with the
exception being an elevated supercell ongoing across south-central
Missouri that has produced several reports of large hail/damaging
wind gusts over the past couple of hours. The greatest severe
potential in the near-term is expected with this supercell as it
continues eastward into southeastern Missouri.=20

Elsewhere across WW169, low-level warm advection continues to
maintain 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE with lifted parcel levels between
700-850 mb. Latest high-res guidance continues to depict the
potential for additional thunderstorms to develop/move into the
western/central portions of the watch over the next 1-2 hours amid
continued upper-level support ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough moving through Kansas. Elongated hodographs, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will continue to
support the potential for elevated supercell structures and an
attendant risk for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts with
any future development.=20

Any developing thunderstorms that can become surface-based
along/south of a surface frontal boundary currently analyzed across
northern Arkansas may also bring the potential for a tornado or two.
Trends will continue to be monitored, and local watch extensions in
time may be needed to cover these threats.

..Chalmers.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9I6CKpyO07zOEc__bNAytZXMuEabcpEt89iiBuNP1boCoGrnzQI-Iy8mnNHZ0wEvESU3aUydd= a4nY1oKGHqJCnVc4iQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 37289513 37709443 38159361 38399301 38519225 38189116
37729056 37059007 36309032 36089150 35809324 35809499
36099562 36699558 37289513=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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