ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150=20
TXZ000-282315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...North Central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 171...

Valid 282150Z - 282315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 171 continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of intense supercell thunderstorms will track
southeastward across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas over the next
couple of hours. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or
two are expected.

DISCUSSION...A line segment of embedded supercells extends from
northeast of Breckenridge to west of Denton TX, moving southeastward
at 25 knots. These storms have produced several reports of severe
hail in the last 1-2 hours, including 2 inch hail in Jack county.=20
The air mass ahead of these storms is very moist and unstable with
dewpoints in the mid 70s and MLCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg.=20
Effective shear values over 50 knots and mid-level lapse rates >8.0
C/km suggest continued supercell structures capable of very large
hail. Given the quasi-linear nature of this cluster of storms,
there is the potential for the development of one or more bowing
structures capable of damaging winds. Also, while low-level winds
are not particularly strong, recent VAD profiles suggest that
slightly backed surface winds and considerable hodograph curvature
in the lowest 2km are contributing to 0-3km SRH over 200 m2/s2,
suggesting a risk of a tornado or two this evening.

..Hart.. 04/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7w2U_wnK4_1GwhFejPnwZftoToHptIH7yn8IWCUn8__agdQ36PD96I52kFEHy3lXlOJO6pkwP= xlvb67wifYz5RDdJZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON 32949882 33319713 33209636 32539631 32399701 32389782
32629869 32949882=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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