ACUS11 KWNS 290123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290123=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-290330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...western Mississippi...and far
northeast Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 173...177...

Valid 290123Z - 290330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 173, 177 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind, hail, and tornadoes is likely
increasing for the ArkLaMiss region as thunderstorms intensify
upstream.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-45 minutes, new convection has
developed across southeast AR within a focused zone of low-level
warm air advection. Velocity data from KDGX reveals an organized
mid-level mesocyclone with one of these cells while lightning counts
continue to increase. This activity will continue to spread
southeast towards the ArkLaMiss region over the next couple of
hours. Regional VWPs are beginning to show the early onset of the
nocturnal jet with 0-1 km SRH increasing to 250-300 m2/s2 over the
past hour. Although nocturnal cooling has begun, it will likely be
modulated due to high dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This
low-level moisture continues to support MLCAPE values in the
1000-2000 J/kg range immediately downstream of the intensifying
convection with STP values remaining between 4-7. Consequently, the
severe threat will likely increase over the next hour or so
(including the potential for significant tornadoes) as this
convection traverses a highly favorable environment.

..Moore.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wXZcvvh7tlv6l_XAB-pkcc-JzdbXyNXkAqO78lDtiHXpcVVzsktbyV3UoRy4Joe7Iwlb9HUL= 37bQURWfN6XdDZeJN0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33029226 33199263 33419286 33649291 33869280 34159225
34169174 34059106 33498977 33158975 32838983 32648998
32489029 32399063 32449105 33029226=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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