ACUS11 KWNS 290425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290425=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-290630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 179...

Valid 290425Z - 290630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 179 continues.

SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development over southeast Arkansas will
pose a severe hail threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the last 45 min over
southeast AR, along a pre-frontal boundary. These storms are in a
very moist and moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE value around
1000 J/kg. Storms have intensified rapidly with MESH values
suggesting severe hail is already occurring. VADs at LZK/NQA and
model guidance show substantial veering of low-level winds has
occurred in this area, suggesting hail is the main concern as these
storms track eastward into WW179 during the next couple of hours.=20 Nevertheless, sufficient low-level shear remains for at least the
risk of an isolated tornado.

..Hart.. 04/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_-iCtRc2ePQDvqW8Kso5qIUCd83SGv12VoCIk-mVR5teZU6wWZjpICZhhyP6bDGhXrNNBgbt-= 64nRFIDuVPqWGofFDM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34059240 34519134 34549019 33968986 33129060 33099144
33259205 33609241 34059240=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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