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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 1 19:31:12 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 011931
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 011930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

    Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
    OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    At least widely scattered severe storms, accompanied by damaging
    gusts and perhaps some large hail, appear likely across portions of
    the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. More isolated
    severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds appear
    possible over the North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the
    upper Midwest Thursday afternoon into night.

    ...Synopsis...

    Broader-scale troughing is forecast over the western CONUS with
    low-amplitude ridging from the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes
    into the Southeast. Between the ridge and an upper low over QC,
    latest model guidance indicates the progression of a short-wave
    trough and associated 40-50 kt jet streak from the lower Great Lakes
    through the Mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. Other more
    subtle disturbances are depicted within the periphery of the ridge
    over the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley.

    At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the Dakotas
    on Thursday with an associated warm front slowly lifting north
    through the upper MS Valley and upper Midwest. The boundary is
    expected to stretch east through the Great Lakes into the
    Mid-Atlantic with the specific location of the boundary dictated by
    the extent of thunderstorm activity and associated convective
    outflow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.


    ...Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

    One or multiple thunderstorm complexes may be ongoing Thursday
    morning from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, aided by forcing
    for ascent attendant to the previously mentioned mid-level
    disturbances. The presence of the early-day storms leads to
    uncertainty in the extent of air mass overturning that occurs, and
    where the strongest instability will develop by afternoon. As such,
    the Marginal Risk probability envelope has been broadened slightly
    over the Mid-Atlantic with the Slight Risk probabilities remaining
    unchanged.

    The overlap of 30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear with a moist and
    potentially moderately to strongly unstable warm sector will
    conditionally support supercell and bowing storm modes with an
    attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail from Thursday
    afternoon into evening.


    ...North Dakota-Minnesota Red River Valley into the upper Midwest...

    A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates/EML is forecast to overly a
    moist boundary layer, yielding a moderately to strongly unstable air
    mass by afternoon in the vicinity of the warm front. The instability
    will coincide with up to 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, conditionally
    yielding a very favorable severe storm environment. However, capping
    concerns and the timing of any weak disturbances cresting the ridge
    axis limit predictability, with only an areal increase in the
    Marginal Risk probabilities included in this forecast. A categorical
    upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in subsequent
    forecasts.

    ..Mead.. 09/01/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 07:29:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 020729
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 020728

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE MID ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging gusts, are
    expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday.
    More isolated severe storms (with wind and hail) may occur over
    parts of the Midwest.

    ...Synopsis...
    Upper ridging will continue over the central and eastern U.S., with
    upper troughs meandering over the Interior West and the Northeast. A
    broad warm frontal boundary will be draped from parts of the Midwest
    to the Atlantic coastline, overspread by deep-layer northwesterly
    flow. Multiple embedded impulses will traverse this northwest flow
    regime, promoting the development of thunderstorm clusters in the
    process.

    ...Southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
    The best chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be across
    portions of southern WV to the NC shoreline on Friday. By afternoon, boundary-layer destabilization along a differential heating zone,
    left behind by storms in preceding days, will promote renewed
    thunderstorm development. Despite meager mid-level lapse rates, 70+
    F surface dewpoints and warm temperatures exceeding 90 F will yield
    widespread 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given stronger northwesterly flow
    aloft, 30+ kts of effective bulk (speed) shear will support
    multicells and supercells capable of damaging gusts.

    ...Portions of the Midwest and OH Valley...
    Rich low-level moisture along the warm front (i.e. 70s F dewpoints),
    beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support 3000+ J/kg
    MLCAPE and minimal convective inhibition. While upper support will
    be quite subtle at best, strong heating and minimal capping may
    support isolated thunderstorm development along the front. Only
    Marginal Risk probabilities were introduced given the expected
    sparse and brief nature of the severe threat. However, any storms
    that mature and become sustained will be capable of producing severe
    wind or hail.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/02/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 2 19:24:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 021919
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 021918

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

    Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging
    gusts, are expected across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on
    Friday. More isolated severe storms capable of severe winds and
    large hail may occur over parts of the Midwest Friday afternoon into
    night.

    ...Synopsis...

    A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo further
    amplification this period with that feature bracketed by troughs
    over the western CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. As has
    been the case over the past several days, subtle disturbances
    embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will serve as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee cyclone will evolve
    over the northern High Plains with an associated surface front
    stretching from the northern Plains through the upper Midwest to the
    southern Mid-Atlantic coast.


    ...Lower Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic...

    There is reasonably good agreement across the 12Z parameterized
    models that scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning
    across portions of the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes region in
    association with an embedded vorticity maximum. Whether that
    convection persists into afternoon remains uncertain; however, it
    does appear that the mid-level disturbance will progress into the
    Mid-Atlantic in tandem with a belt of 35-40 kt west-northwest flow
    in the mid levels. Forcing for ascent associated with that
    disturbance will promote renewed thunderstorm development by
    afternoon along the effective surface front and within a moderately
    unstable air mass. Sufficient vertical shear will exist to support
    organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging
    wind gusts.

    This forecast update will include a slight northward expansion of
    the Slight Risk probabilities based on 12Z guidance.


    ...Midwest/Corn Belt...

    In the wake of possible early-day storms described in the previous
    section, steep mid-level lapse rates within the eastern fringe of an elevated-mixed layer (EML) will coincide with a moist boundary layer
    to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon in
    the vicinity of the surface front. The proximity to the building
    mid-level ridge and resultant capping across the warm sector lead to considerable uncertainty in the extent and location of surface-based thunderstorm development Friday afternoon into night. While
    deep-layer shear is forecast to be weaker than that expected on
    Thursday, the degree of instability will conditionally support a
    large hail and severe wind risk with any surface-based storms that
    develop.

    Marginal Risk probabilities will be maintained with this forecast
    update due to the limited predictability in convective evolution.

    ..Mead.. 09/02/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 07:19:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 030719
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 030718

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH CAROLINA
    INTO NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms producing scattered damaging gusts are possible
    across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. A couple
    instances of severe wind/hail with isolated thunderstorms may also
    occur across portions of the Ohio Valley.

    ...Synopsis...
    An upper ridge will persevere across the Plains states, with upper
    troughs remaining in place across the Interior West and East Coast.
    Similar to Day 2, the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be
    primarily constrained to the eastern CONUS, where subtle mid-level
    impulses will overspread rich low-level moisture, contributing to
    enough buoyancy and vertical wind shear to encourage damaging wind
    production with the stronger storms.

    ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coastline...
    At least one mid-level impulse will traverse the OH Valley to NC
    corridor on Saturday, perhaps accompanied by a morning cluster of thunderstorms. Regardless, the impulse is poised to reach the lee of
    the Appalachians by Saturday afternoon, where upper 60s to lower 70s
    F surface dewpoints await. By this time, boundary layer mixing will
    encourage either the intensification of ongoing storms with the
    approaching impulse, the development of new storms, or both, all
    along a differential heating zone left behind by previous day's
    storms. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place, along with 30+ kts
    of effective bulk shear driven by modest northwesterly flow aloft.
    Multicells are the expected storm mode, with severe gusts and
    perhaps an instance or two of hail.

    Farther to the northwest, strong surface heating along an effective
    warm front, characterized by mid 70s F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5
    C/km mid-level lapse rates (hence 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
    encourage isolated thunderstorm development across portions of the
    OH Valley. Vertical shear and ascent should be relatively weak, so
    the severe threat should be sparse. Nonetheless, any storms that
    mature and sustain themselves may pose a severe wind/hail threat.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/03/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 3 19:19:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 031918
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 031918

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

    Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND FAR
    SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible across
    portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday
    afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe
    wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern Plains
    and vicinity Saturday afternoon into night.

    ...Synopsis...

    A prominent, mid-level ridge will persist over the central U.S. with
    troughs on either side, over the western CONUS and in the Northeast.
    Similar to previous days, thunderstorm development will largely be
    associated with subtle mid-level disturbances embedded within the
    broader-scale pattern. One more notable perturbation is expected to
    progress from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and
    Carolinas on Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure is
    forecast over the northern Plains with an attending boundary
    extending through the Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic or
    Carolinas.


    ...Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas...

    Latest model guidance is in good agreement in depicting a cluster of thunderstorms over portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley at
    12Z Saturday, likely associated with the mid-level disturbance
    mentioned above. It remains unclear whether any of the early-day
    storms will persist into the afternoon. Those that do are likely to
    intensify as they encounter a hot, moist, and moderately unstable
    air mass present across portions of VA into the Carolinas.
    Additional, in-situ storm development appears possible along the
    primary front and lee trough. An increase in mid-level flow and
    resultant deep-layer shear (up to 30-35 kt) is expected with the
    arrival of the mid-level disturbance, suggesting the potential for
    organized storm modes, with the primary hazard being damaging wind
    gusts Saturday afternoon and evening.


    ...Northern Plains...

    Moderate to strong instability is forecast Saturday afternoon in the
    vicinity of the surface low and attending front. The close proximity
    to the mid-level ridge leads to uncertainty in convective evolution
    through the forecast period. However, a number of models, both
    ensemble and deterministic, indicate storm development during the
    peak of the diurnal heating cycle. Given the degree of instability
    and ample deep-layer shear, a few severe storms appear possible with
    the primary hazards being large hail and severe wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 09/03/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 06:37:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 040637
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 040636

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong wind gusts are possible across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
    and early evening. A more uncertain and conditional risk for severe
    wind and hail is expected across parts of the northern Plains.

    ...Northern Plains...

    An amplified upper ridge will remain in place from the central
    Plains to the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Some modest weakening of the
    ridge may occur as an upper shortwave trough digs across the
    Northwest and weak shortwave disturbances crest the ridge through
    the period. At the surface, low pressure will persist across the
    western Dakotas. Boundary layer moisture will spread across eastern
    MT on the back side of the surface low, while deep low-level
    moisture extends across ND into eastern SD and the Mid-MO Valley
    along another surface boundary. Capping will be a main limiting
    factor for storm development. However, if the cap can be overcome,
    or if elevated convection develops during the day into evening,
    strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible given supercell
    wind profiles and corridor of moderate to strong instability.

    Deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast to increase with the
    approach of the Northwest upper shortwave trough late in the period
    across parts of the northern Rockies toward the northern High
    Plains. This could also support possible severe convection overnight
    into parts of MT, but timing and overlap of stronger shear and
    better instability remains uncertain.

    Overall, severe potential appears conditional on Sunday across
    portions of the northern Plains. But, if storms can develop, some
    risk for severe wind/hail will be possible.

    ...Southeast...

    Weak northwesterly flow aloft will persist on Sunday as a surface
    front develops south/southwest into the Southeast. Ahead of the
    surface boundary, a very moist airmass will support a corridor of
    moderate to strong instability focused across southern GA.
    Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon. Vertical
    shear will remain weak, but high PW values could support sporadic
    wet microbursts and locally strong wind gusts. Some guidance
    suggests sufficient clustering and outflow consolidation could occur
    such that a forward propagating cluster could spread south/southwest
    across the area. If this occurs, damaging wind potential could
    increase.

    ..Leitman.. 09/04/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 4 19:30:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 041930
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 041929

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

    Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong wind gusts are likely across the Southeast Sunday afternoon
    and early evening. A more uncertain risk for severe wind and hail is
    expected across parts of the northern Plains.

    ...Southeast...
    Most guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across
    the Southeast during the day on Sunday. Moderate to strong
    instability is forecast south of a cold front across the region. The
    greatest instability is anticipated near the coast where low to mid
    70s dewpoints are likely. Mid-level flow will be quite weak, which
    should limit overall storm organization. However, the combination of
    the mid-level shortwave trough and the frontal forcing amid an
    uncapped and strongly unstable environment should result in a
    cluster of storms capable of water-loaded downbursts. A Slight Risk
    has been added for the region where the greatest storm coverage is
    expected.

    ...Northern Plains...
    The ridge across the Plains will start to break down on Sunday with
    a lee cyclone developing across eastern Montana. Moderate to strong
    instability will be present across the northern Plains, potentially
    with some stronger mid-level flow as the ridge breaks down. Storms
    will be possible along the trough from eastern Wyoming into northern
    Colorado, along the warm front near the Canadian border and into
    northern North Dakota, and extending into western Minnesota, and
    northwest of the low across eastern Montana where some instability
    is expected to develop. Within this broader area, there will likely
    be a few preferred zones that will eventually need a Slight Risk.
    However, at this time, it is unclear where these preferred zones
    will be. Greater resolution of the pattern evolution should make
    these regions more clear in later outlooks.

    ..Bentley.. 09/04/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 06:39:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 050639
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 050637

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0137 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

    ...Nebraska into the Dakotas and Minnesota...

    An upper shortwave trough will eject east/northeast from the
    Intermountain West to the northern Plains on Monday. Strong
    mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region ahead of the
    trough. At the surface, a low over eastern MT will develop northeast
    into the Canadian Prairies, and a trailing cold front will push east
    across portions of NE/SD/ND. A moist airmass will be in place ahead
    of the front, promoting areas of moderate instability. Vertically
    veering wind profiles, and strengthening midlevel southwesterly
    flow, will generate effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt,
    supporting organized thunderstorms. While cooling aloft will result
    in modestly steep lapse rates, warmer temperatures may linger around
    850 mb, leading to capping concerns. Nevertheless, even elevated
    storms will pose a risk for hail, and depending on storm mode,
    strong wind gusts.

    ..Leitman.. 09/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 19:46:54 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 051945
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 051944

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
    northern and central Plains into Minnesota on Monday.

    ... Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes ...

    A mid-level shortwave trough will lift northeast on Monday,
    impinging on the central US ridge. Strong southwesterly mid-level
    flow associated with the trough will overspread an increasingly warm
    and moist low-level airmass across the north-central US. Given
    low-level flow will be more southerly, the resulting vertically
    veering profiles will result in effective shear ranging from 35
    knots to more than 50 knots. Forecast soundings indicate that an
    elevated mixed layer should advect over the Plains during the day
    resulting in capping issues for most of the afternoon. However, as
    cooler mid-level temperatures overspread the unstable and sheared
    airmass, afternoon thunderstorms will at least be possible. These
    storms should pose a threat for large hail and, if the storms can
    tap into the boundary layer, strong thunderstorm winds. As the
    low-level jet increases during the evening, an increase in storm
    coverage is expected, with perhaps one or more MCSs evolving across
    portions of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Isolated large hail
    and perhaps damaging winds will be possible.

    ..Marsh.. 09/05/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 06:23:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 060622
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 060621

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA TO
    THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
    the Upper Midwest.

    ...Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

    An upper trough will move from the northern Plains to the Great
    Lakes on Tuesday. As this occurs, a swath of enhanced deep-layer
    southwesterly flow will overspread the Upper Midwest. At the
    surface, low pressure over Manitoba will continue east/northeast
    through the period, with a trailing cold front sweeping east across
    the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley. A moist airmass
    will be in place ahead of the front, and weak to moderate
    destabilization is forecast. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
    parallel to the surface boundary, but sufficient shear will be
    present for some storm organization. The north and east extent of
    severe potential is a bit uncertain given concern over
    inhibition/timing and modest instability. However, given the
    strength of deep-layer southwesterly flow, some severe risk should
    extend along the length of the surface front from the Upper Midwest
    into the central Plains. Damaging wind and hail will be the primary
    concern with this activity from late afternoon into the nighttime
    hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 6 19:28:00 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 061927
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 061926

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
    NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to severe storms are possible on Tuesday from Nebraska into
    the Upper Midwest.

    ... Central Plains to the Upper Midwest ...

    Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of
    the Upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period. These storms
    will be primarily driven by strong warm-air advection along and
    ahead of a surface cold front moving east across the region in
    association with a short-wave trough moving across the southern
    Canadian Prairies. These morning storms may pose a marginal risk for
    hail and wind before weakening during the day as the low-level jet
    veers and weakens.

    In the wake of the morning convection, diurnal heating of a moist
    airmass south of the residual surface boundary will result an
    unstable airmass by late afternoon. Large scale forcing for ascent
    along the boundary will be nebulous so local-scale processes will
    likely govern if and where afternoon storms may develop. Vertical
    shear decreases with southward extent, but a threat of large hail
    and damaging winds will be possible with any afternoon
    thunderstorms.

    By late evening into the overnight another short-wave trough will
    quickly race east into the Plains. In response to this feature, the
    low-level jet will once again increase, providing some forcing for
    ascent along isentropic surfaces along and north of the front. These
    storms should be able to tap into elevated instability and
    sufficient cloud-layer shear to support a threat for isolated wind
    and hail overnight.

    ..Marsh.. 09/06/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 06:36:52 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 070636
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 070635

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the Midwest on Wednesday.

    ...Midwest...

    An upper trough will progress eastward across the Great Lakes on
    Wednesday, bringing enhanced westerly flow over the region. At the
    surface, a cold front will shift southeast through the period,
    becoming positioned from the Upper Ohio Valley to the TX Panhandle
    by Thursday morning. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
    place. Midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly
    steep, but pockets of weak to moderate instability are forecast,
    particularly across the Lower MO Valley into OH. Morning showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and north of the cold
    front from Iowa into Lower MI. As the front progresses southeast
    through the afternoon and evening, additional thunderstorm
    development is expected across the destabilizing warm sector.

    Deep-layer flow is expected to largely remain parallel to the
    surface boundary. This environment should largely favor a more
    linear storm mode and convection could become undercut by the front. Nevertheless, vertical shear will be sufficient for organized
    convection and damaging winds appear possible within corridors of
    greater instability into Wednesday evening/early Thursday.

    ..Leitman.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:46:44 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071846
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071845

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0145 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

    ...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
    Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
    and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
    on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
    instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
    strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
    severe weather threat does not appear likely.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
    Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
    the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
    south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
    across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
    present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
    and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
    but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
    isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
    exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

    ..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:50:26 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 071849
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 071848

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...

    CORRECTED FOR MISSING HEADLINE

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
    of the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

    ...Central Plains to the Lower Ohio Valley...
    Moderate instability is expected as temperatures warm into the 90s
    and low 100s ahead of a stalled front from the Plains to the Ozarks
    on Wednesday. However, despite the strong heating and moderate
    instability, very weak shear (less than 20 knots) should limit storm organization. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible amid the
    strong heating and steep lapse rates, but a more focused overall
    severe weather threat does not appear likely.

    ...Upper Ohio Valley into New York...
    A mid-level trough is forecast to cross the northern Great Lakes on
    Wednesday and the associated mid-level jet streak will overspread
    the Great Lakes. Most forecast guidance shows instability focused
    south of the stronger mid-level flow with only very weak instability
    across western New York where the stronger mid-level flow will be
    present. Therefore, the displacement of the stronger mid-level flow
    and instability should limit a more organized severe weather threat,
    but some stronger instability in the Ohio Valley may support
    isolated damaging wind gusts, and a more conditional threat may
    exist across western New York if sufficient instability can develop.

    ..Bentley.. 09/07/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:33:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080632
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080632

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...

    An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while
    a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S.
    Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to
    the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure
    will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a
    prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will
    be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered
    thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear
    will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of
    focus for severe storm development.

    The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the
    central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime.
    A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but
    vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly
    enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection
    and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm
    coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates
    will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding
    severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 18:50:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081850
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081849

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...
    As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday,
    surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its
    wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from
    Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation
    is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which
    should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the
    Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near
    the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains.
    Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much
    of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering
    will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This
    may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains,
    but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather
    probabilities are warranted.

    A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the
    Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central
    Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected
    across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday
    morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak
    instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 06:25:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090625
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090624

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:00:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090700
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090659

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 19:32:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 091932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 091930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
    DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
    Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
    pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
    eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
    strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
    layer into central MN.

    Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
    moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
    kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
    late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
    become linear along the advancing cold front.

    Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
    initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
    will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
    hatching for hail.

    A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
    eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
    Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
    storms move northeast across MN.

    ..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:22:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 092022
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 092020

    Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
    DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
    Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
    pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
    eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
    strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
    layer into central MN.

    Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
    moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
    kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
    late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
    become linear along the advancing cold front.

    Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
    initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
    will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
    hatching for hail.

    A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
    eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
    Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
    storms move northeast across MN.

    ..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 06:27:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 100626
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 100625

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
    across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

    ...Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO...

    Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the
    Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high
    Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This
    pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the
    northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to
    extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The
    front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern
    MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over
    KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface
    boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep
    midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will
    result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central
    KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but
    sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and
    strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop
    within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance
    suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled
    boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly
    low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS
    development will exist.

    ..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 19:04:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 101904
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 101903

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO
    NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
    across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

    ...Discussion...
    A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern
    Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern
    Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable
    due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.

    The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and
    northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel
    westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the
    cold front, with gradual height rises.

    While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe
    storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F
    dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating.
    MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate
    profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support
    locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is
    uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.

    ..Jewell.. 09/10/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 07:32:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 110731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 110730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
    SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
    UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
    THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
    appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and
    across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday
    night.

    ...Discussion...
    An initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest
    coast by 12Z Sunday is forecast to remain progressive through this
    period, though it may slowly begin to devolve into an open trough
    while accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies in response to a
    short wave digging into northwestern portions of the Canadian
    Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that
    short wave ridging will build across the northern U.S. Great Plains
    and adjacent Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest/adjacent
    northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec
    through the lower Great Lakes region.

    The primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing is
    forecast to migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by
    late Sunday night. As it does, the trailing cold front probably
    will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late
    Sunday afternoon, before overspreading the northern Atlantic
    Seaboard through upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
    Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the
    central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall near or
    just south of the stronger westerlies.

    ...Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley...
    Models vary concerning the degree of pre-frontal destabilization and
    the extent to which this may coincide with strengthening of westerly
    flow in the 700-500 mb layer, downstream of the digging short wave
    trough. However, particularly to the lee of the lower Great Lakes
    toward the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity, it appears that forcing
    for ascent will become increasingly conducive to at least scattered thunderstorm development by or shortly after peak daytime heating.
    As this occurs, developing storms will probably be accompanied by at
    least some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening Sunday
    evening.

    ...North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity...
    The degree to which cool/stable boundary-layer air remains
    entrenched across much of Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas, to
    the south of the westerlies and beneath a remnant plume of warm
    elevated mixed-layer air, remains unclear. Between the cool
    boundary layer, which may be relatively shallow, and the base of the
    capping elevated mixed layer, it does appear that a seasonably moist
    air mass retreating northward through the region will contribute to
    moderate to large CAPE.

    Although notable spread exists within/among the various model
    output, there appears potential for at least isolated to widely
    scattered strong to severe storm development in moistening
    southeasterly low-level flow across and to the southwest of the
    Black Hills vicinity by late Sunday afternoon, with the approach of
    the short wave trough. Subsequent development eastward into the
    Great Plains remains more uncertain, but, by late Sunday night,
    stronger storm development seems most likely to focus on the nose of
    a strengthening southerly low-level jet, near the northeastern
    periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, across/northeast
    of the middle Missouri Valley. This may be accompanied by at least
    a risk for severe hail.

    ..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 19:22:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 111922
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 111921

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
    may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the
    north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night.

    ...Ohio into the Northeast...
    A large upper low/trough will push across eastern Canada on Sunday,
    with a strong speed max aloft spreading across the Great Lakes late
    in the day. A cold front will push toward the OH Valley and Lower
    Great Lakes late in the day, with a moist and marginally unstable
    air mass ahead of it. Areas of heating and lift near the boundary
    should support scattered afternoon/evening storms, and deep-layer
    shear of 30 to perhaps 40 kt could support a degree of organization.
    Lapse rates aloft appear to be poor overall, suggesting only a
    Marginal Risk of damaging gusts or hail will exist.

    ...Northern Plains...
    High pressure will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Great
    Lakes as shortwave ridging occurs over the Plains during the day. A
    compact yet deep upper low is then forecast to move into the
    northern Rockies, with height falls increasing over the northern
    High Plains Sunday night.

    The steeper low-level lapse rates will be confined to the higher
    terrain from east-central WY to the Front Range in CO, with
    generally stable low levels to the east due to high pressure. After
    a days worth of heating, isolated surface-based storms may occur
    late over eastern WY, with additional activity developing within the
    warm advection regime as the low-level jet increases over the
    central Plains. The overall threat appear minimal, and likely in the
    form of marginal hail.

    ..Jewell.. 09/11/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 07:15:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 120715
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 120714

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
    MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
    MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
    for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
    Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Downstream of weak mid/upper troughing continuing to slowly dig
    across the Pacific coast, models indicate that mid/upper ridging
    (centered across the Southeast) may become increasingly prominent
    across the southern Great Plains into the lower Great Lakes and
    northern Mid Atlantic Seaboard through this period. To the north of
    this ridging, and in advance of a short wave impulse digging through
    the Canadian Prairies, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic
    circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of
    the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into
    northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this
    will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind
    fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.

    While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather
    potential, destabilization within the warm sector remains much more
    uncertain. There does remain a general consensus among the various
    model output that a northward retreating near-surface baroclinic
    zone may provide the primary focus for stronger convective
    development, generally near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
    from parts of eastern Nebraska northeastward toward the Upper
    Midwest. However, even if the maintenance of a relatively cold,
    stable boundary layer along this zone, as depicted in the latest NAM
    forecast soundings, is too extreme, it remains unclear the extent to
    which thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to the risk for
    severe weather.

    ..Kerr.. 09/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:13:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 121913
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 121912

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
    for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
    Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday
    with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface
    pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and
    a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist
    airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with
    mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.

    Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
    across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota amid moderate isentropic
    ascent. The primary forecast concern for Monday will be northward
    progression of the surface boundary across eastern Nebraska and
    Iowa. Guidance varies with the northward recovery in the wake of
    morning activity, but forecast soundings in regions where this
    recovery does occur show a conditional supercell environment with
    the threat for all severe weather hazards.

    Given the influence of morning convection, the exact location of the
    greatest threat will likely shift in the coming days. However, given
    that most guidance showed a convective signal aligned with a
    conditionally favorable supercell environment in the vicinity of
    eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, added a small Slight Risk across
    this region to account for this threat.

    An elevated hail threat may persist into Monday evening farther
    northeast given a strong low-level jet and moderate elevated
    instability. Some surface based storm threat could continue into the
    overnight hours along the boundary, but most guidance shows storms
    north of the boundary during the overnight period.

    Storms will likely form within the well-mixed environment across
    eastern Colorado and western Kansas Monday afternoon. Weak shear
    should limit storm organization, but strong heating and steep lapse
    rates may support isolated severe wind gusts.

    ..Bentley.. 09/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 07:05:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 130705
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 130704

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
    AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT
    LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
    southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
    Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
    locally damaging wind gusts.

    ...Discussion...
    A deamplifying mid-level short wave trough and associated surface
    cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration
    through this period, generally across the remainder of northwestern
    Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night. In
    the wake of the cyclone, an initial low-level baroclinic zone across
    the lower Great Lakes region through the lower Missouri Valley and
    central Great Plains may make some southward progression, before
    stalling and perhaps retreating northward beneath the building
    northwestern periphery of prominent ridging still centered across
    the Southeast. There is variance among the guidance concerning this
    latter development, and the evolution of digging upstream mid-level
    troughing across the northern Intermountain Region and Pacific
    Coast.

    ...Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains...
    Mainly where mid-level heights remain suppressed, prior to the onset
    of the mid-level height rises, coincident with daytime
    boundary-layer destabilization along and southeast of the slow
    moving frontal zone, a corridor of increasing, scattered
    thunderstorm development appears possible through mid to late
    Tuesday afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates may support the
    evolution of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+
    J/kg, near the modest southern fringe of the mid-level westerlies,
    which may still include speeds of 30+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer.
    A warm layer in mid/upper levels may tend to suppress large hail,
    but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of
    potential wet-bulb temperatures in lower/mid-levels could contribute
    to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong
    gusts into Tuesday evening.

    ..Kerr.. 09/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 19:26:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 131926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 131925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
    southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
    Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
    locally damaging wind gusts.

    ...Discussion...
    A mid-level trough will move into Ontario on Tuesday with the
    mid-level ridge building in its wake across the Midwest and into the
    Upper Midwest. Beneath this ridge, a cold front will move slowly
    southeastward from southern Iowa and northern Kansas at the
    beginning of the period, to northern Oklahoma to central Missouri by
    the end of the period. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid
    70s south of the front with weak to moderate instability
    anticipated. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous given the rising
    heights aloft and weak convergence along the slow-moving, decaying
    front.

    Nonetheless, moderate to potentially strong instability and an
    uncapped airmass should support some thunderstorms capable of severe
    wind gusts. Some lingering 30 to 40 knot mid-level flow is forecast
    to remain across portions of the warm sector Friday afternoon
    (particularly across northern Illinois/Indiana) which may aid in
    storm organization, but warm air aloft and a lack of clear supercell
    mode should limit the overall hail threat.

    ..Bentley.. 09/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)