ACUS11 KWNS 121823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121822
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-122015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121822Z - 122015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible with the strongest
storms this afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A weak surface reflection of a de-amplifying upper
trough is evident in far eastern Indiana into central Ohio. Ahead of
this feature, thunderstorm coverage is increasing within a pocket of
stronger surface heating across the upper Ohio Valley. A recent
TAMDAR sounding from PIT showed weak mid-level lapse rates but
steepening low-level lapse rates. As storms steadily
deepen/intensify, wind damage will be possible with the strongest
storms. Given the weak large-scale features and mid-level lapse
rates, overall severe potential is expected to remain
isolated/marginal.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 09/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zRD_AuDd4t3lURVJKMaDgJFAQxw1j9laqCbej_L9ELNondGmcFOL1RRczrNJNupmTiHtHoyC73MevyRYn3TRlP4AwM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON 38498186 38438272 38638302 38918263 39658182 40538065
41357957 41397939 41487894 41257862 40787860 39857911
39367965 38768083 38498186


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)