ACUS11 KWNS 122155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122155
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...extreme southeast Oklahoma into southern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122155Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
downbursts, especially if storms can continue to merge. However, the
severe threat should remain sparse, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cells and multicells have intensified
over the past few hours, and are beginning to show signs of possible
larger scale merging. If this occurs, ample evaporative cooling
potential exists with cold pool mergers given a well-mixed boundary
layer, characterized by 20-30 F T/Td spreads and over 1500 J/kg
DCAPE. Damaging gusts may occur with the stronger downbursts and at
the intersections of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Nonetheless,
the severe threat should remain isolated at best, and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Mn7VMp3iYR4uO62yS5N9nbxZtdi82sVtyQKd11OHCNl9XImvxpgqfDkdebtqVOURqref-h4Yp1WBajJ-6Ca5k150oI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34599526 34889376 34819258 34429200 33829175 33339192
33129257 33069311 33199375 33989500 34599526

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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