ACUS11 KWNS 122248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122247
KSZ000-OKZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...far northwestern Oklahoma into southwest and
south-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667...

Valid 122247Z - 122345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667
continues.

SUMMARY...Additional northward development of scattered strong to
severe storms is expected into southwestern KS over the next few
hours. Severe hail and wind gusts will be the main threats.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop northward along the
southwestern KS/northwestern OK border area, preceded by a well
sheared and unstable airmass, characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple surface boundaries are
evident via observations and visible satellite, with the primary
boundary located from just northeast of DDC, eastward to well east
of ICT. Agitated CU, from Harper County, OK to DDC, may also be
developing on a secondary boundary.

The current thinking is that convective initiation will likely occur
or east of DDC in the next few hours. Storms should be initially
supercellular, accompanied by a severe hail risk, with some stones
potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Convection may then
merge into a small cluster/possible cold-pool-driven MCS, and
traverse the zonal boundary across southern KS later this evening.
Should this scenario unfold, severe gusts will become the main
threat, with 75+ mph gusts possible given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates present (per the 18Z DDC observed sounding).

..Squitieri.. 09/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7sZ7N_ybgOEBZFjQSAB0HzePuQr4ojLSj6FYWkmk8CWOteQL1b2i0i_UV7rR655ljOe_hmUa94puSAQ60bR3cuxEF2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36449950 36509999 36580016 36720043 36850044 36950046
37030045 37200042 37699995 37789982 37869964 37939947
37979930 38039898 38069876 38079799 37989656 37909644
37689645 37439665 37279699 37099753 36769849 36589906
36449950

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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