ACUS11 KWNS 131959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131959
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-132200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest Pennsylvania...western
New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131959Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity over the
new few hours along the cold front from northeast Ohio into parts of western/central New York. Trends will continue to be monitored for
watch potential.

DISCUSSION...Height falls with the upper trough are now spreading
across MI and approaching the Lower Great Lakes. Gradual
destabilization is underway ahead of the cold front, which extends
roughly from western NY into OH. Deepening CU and convective showers
are also evident over north-central OH and into northwest PA, and
farther northeast along the lake breezes into NY.

Given continued heating, lift along the front and at least some
cooling aloft, storm coverage and intensity should increase along
the effective front over the next several hours. The 18Z PIT
sounding shows 40 kt midlevel winds along with stronger speeds in
the upper levels, although speeds below 700 mb are generally weak.
However, overall wind profiles may increase later today, supporting
at least some threat of storm organization.

Effective deep-layer shear around 40-45 kt may support cellular
storm mode at times, along with smaller-scale bowing structures/line
segments as well. Marginal hail and locally strong to damaging gusts
may occur through early evening.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4w7PiG0_cAUSRa842ZlT4Sc7ZPj1KjZKyLb3Y3fpF51QWMo8QQWsI-v623IrJqq_CNyyonbTa2WR4DlUeLpSmrmkjJ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 40717982 40308081 40158164 40308193 40548204 40888198
41078170 41818010 42307912 42577863 42827850 43057856
43217845 43277826 43417553 43167525 42697556 41687732
41057881 40717982

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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